Softening house market?

The lack of supply issue will never be solved here now. It has run too far ahead of us. There is neither the money, nor the ability to solve it at this point. They will always be playing catchup.

All I am saying is there no point spitting feathers and loosing sleep over it. Have an argument/debate, but no need to turn into a red tomato. We can all gauge the posters mood based on how they are writing.

As for your “predicting hurt and pain”, do you believe that Ireland will never go into recession ever again ? I personally believe in the boom and bust cycle, we may have one tomorrow, next year or 5 years from now, we just don’t know. I also believe each recession is different and the next one could not even affect the property market. Nobody knows.

Looks to me that at the end of the day all Bass is doing is pointing out that if there is a crash to come it will be for different reasons than the last one. Personally, I think he is right. I dont get the attacking and winding up of people for being up at 2am etc. Seems to be a bit personal there.

You maybe right but the demand side may dissipate, I can see a swarth of people leaving college over the next decade not staying in the country. The powers that be have more or less given them the 2 finger salute with regards to being housed here either by renting or buying. Why would you stay here , your taxed at such a high rate and at such a low point, every thing you buy and do almost incurs more tax and we have a nation of gougers who will up prices all the time blaming external factors and forget to bring them back down when the external forces are gone. So instead of the supply side up-ticking the demand may drop off a cliff in the next decade. We have sold our kids futures along with the idea of having any kind of stable public services to vulture funds, REITS, Welfare, Bankers. the construction industry, Refugees and to the public sector pay and pensions. The average Joe is last in the list. The spending this country is doing and has been doing over the last 5/6 years is based on an annual repeat performance of MNCs corpo tax take and if one of two of the big guys find a sweeter deal than ours then we may all jump on a plane. Anyone thinking we are not going to see a recession in this country is bonkers we are too open an economy not to feel it.

Yes, I think prices will rise well beyond the modest amount politicians are predicting. However at the same time there is a desperate need for new units in the market which, when built, will slow down price rises. However this slowing down is a secondary effect of increased building and will take a few years to kick in.

purely unscientific question, is anyone here living near what would have been classed as a 'ghost estate' after the last crash?

has it been completed since?

I was driving the other day, (north cork) and it occured to me that there wasnt any in my locality, indeed the only one I remember passing in recent times is the one on the right hand side between Firies and Dingle.

Yes, can't increase the rate of building without in the short term raising prices. Whatever benefit from that increased supply comes later.

They are still expected to compete with corporate landlords & the government for the same meagre bit of artificially limited through zoning laws housing stock. The whole system is gone silly, can we get back the 70's and 80s where you could buy a house for 10k and be done with it?

But it is true. All of these companies are not going to shut up shop. Even if they do, most of the employees are not going to leave the country and will need somewhere to live If the apocalypse happened and they all emigrated there is still an endless supply of people already looking for somewhere to live. And more arriving every day.

I know people like to play up the spectre of mass emigration but it is never as high as you think it will be. about 50% of my class emigrated (including myself) in the 80s when we finished school. 95% of us were back within a year or two. Things arent always rosey over the hedge when you get there.

There are just not enough houses in Ireland. The only place money is going to come to build them is the middle income tax payer. You cant get much more blood from that stone. Then you need people to build them. And you need to build them at an astonishing rate to catch up now. Never gonna happen. There was a time when you could have caught up, but that has long passed.

You don't need them all to shut up shop, just cut headcount. People seem to forget just how huge they are as employers here, and generally have good renumeration. Their employees are very mobile, many having come from overseas to live in Ireland for work.

Meta employs 3000 in Dublin Alphabet employs 8000 in Dublin Amazon employs 5000 between Dublin and Cork

Apple has 6000 mostly in Cork

Microsoft has 2000

Linkedin has 1600

Salesforce has 1400

Twitter has 200

A tech downturn (which many believe we are on the cusp of - Meta employees have already been warned it's coming) leaves Dublin particularly quite exposed. Because of the big numbers even a small percentage cut will be impactful, especially so in tight Dublin market particularly.

Tech booming? Tech is stalling if you are being generous about the situation.

The FAANGs have lost somewhere like 40% of their value in the last 12 months.

Tech stocks seem to have little relation to the state of the company.

Look at the number of open jobs that tech MNCs have as a whole and tell me things are stalling.

Tesla, Netflix, Meta etc etc have boom bust stock prices over the past few years.

Is Netflix only 1/3 the company now that it was last year?

Is Tesla 1/2 the company now than last year? Just checked, Tesla shipped nearly as many cars Q1-Q3 this year than all of 2021, which itself was twice 2020.

How many are in Ireland?

How many employ more than a few dozen people?

How many of them would cause a huge upset to our economy if they failed?

Facebook have made some very bad strategic moves which is costing them and bringing the average down when you lump them all together.

The other big tech firms are all performing well when you look at the state of their actual business and their revenue. Stock prices are in line with the whole market and not necessarily reflective of reality.