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Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You're jumped from one selectively chosen expert, to the Great Barrington Declaration... to 'consensus'.

    Just on this point, I've noticed it going on a lot.

    Whether it's presenting some European group called PACE as a widely accepted view or presenting individual and contentious declarations as a consensus. Constantly trying to reframe fringe stuff as mainstream. Very slippery altogether.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    My expectation is that when the excess deaths numbers are properly tracked and compared to previous years, age adjusted, most of the excess deaths will be down to demographic shift. At the moment 'raw' 2022 figures are being compared with 2016-2019 and 2021 data.

    In terms of other explanations, as well as the possible causes noted here, Long Covid must be considered also.

    A consequential number of people who died in Covid were NOT in cohorts that would have been expected to die in a normal non-covid year, something like 10-20%. Vulnerable people took extreme precautions during covid, with society and restrictions opened up now ... I wonder if we are seeing a delayed 'harvesting' effect. So we have people who "should" have died but didn't, and people who "shouldn't" have died but did.

    The variance of excess deaths across countries suggest local factors playing a significant part - heatwaves in S Europe, NHS capacity issues in UK. The variance cannot be explained by different vaccine uptake. That cannot rule out vaccines but to me it suggests if vaccines are a factor that are minor.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    AEIR, the American Institute of Economic Research, the group that hosted these three individuals setting up the "Great Barrington Declaration" is all sorts of shady. Noami Wolfe, the anti-vaxxer, is a fellow.

    Here's a good starting point

    It cropped up a lot during the last two years of anti-Covid quackery on this forum, as an FYI, anyone can sign up as a medical professional to it



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Lol that didn't last long then.

    You're again reverting to the vague handwaving thing to still keep open the option that the vaccine is killing millions of people when it's convenient to you.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I didn't claim the Great Barrington Declaration was consensus. I claimed that the opinion expressed in the Great Barrington Declaration that lockdowns would cause a rise in excess mortality due to cardiovascular, cancer and mental health issues, to name but a few, appears to be a consensus opinion now with the benefit of hindsight.

    Regarding PACE, just because you had not previously heard of the Parliamentary Assembly Council of Europe, now matter how savvy you consider yourself, does not make their views "fringe stuff".

    The Department of Health paper on COVID-19 Mandatory Vaccination-Ethical and Human Rights Considerations written for NPHET cited PACE:

    The Council of Europe Resolution 2361 (2021) which references Articles 8 and 9 of the European Convention on Human Rights provides that Member States must ensure that citizens are informed that “vaccination is not mandatory and that no one is under political, social or other pressure to be vaccinated if they do not wish to do so”. Further Member States should “ensure that no one is discriminated against for not having been vaccinated, due to possible health risks or not wanting to be vaccinated”.

    Is it possible that the truth is in fact the Council is mainstream and you are not quite as savvy as you consider yourself?



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,096 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    that lockdowns would cause a rise in excess mortality due to cardiovascular, cancer and mental health issues, to name but a few, appears to be a consensus opinion now with the benefit of hindsight.


    That wasn't any particular great insight by them. Was pretty damned obvious to all concerned that lockdowns would have negative consequences for various other health conditions. I was getting additional support and information from my medical team in the month before any lockdowns happened, they had been planning for a reduction in access to services and knew that there would be consequences for the service they could provide. I assume that many others with long term conditions had the same, and health services knew that identifying new cases would be affected by lockdowns.


    It's not some remarkable insight that these anti vaxxers had. We all knew there were negative consequences for lockdowns, but the consequences of not locking down were greater which is why that is what happened.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It's not some remarkable insight that these anti vaxxers had.

    What part of the declaration indicated to you that these three are anti-vaxxers?

    We all knew there were negative consequences for lockdowns, but the consequences of not locking down were greater which is why that is what happened.

    Is it still the consensus opinion of experts with the benefit of hindsight that the lockdowns were the correct strategy? Seems like that consensus is faltering a bit. From the layman's point of view, I'm sure I've heard a few of the regulars on here, DohnJoe for example, acknowledge the lockdowns didn't work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    But remember though, the virus only killed 6+ million people which according to our resident anti-vaxxers is a pittance.

    Even if we include the millions that were saved by the vaccine (as shown by a study posted a while back) then the virus would have only killed a mere 20 million. Which would upgrade it from a pittance to a trifle.


    But the real issue is that the vaccine is making babies cry and making them sleep less.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You pretty much quoted the whole thing, which suggests letting Covid run wild with no lockdowns (and makes dodgy claims about influenza and children). You are suggesting the Great Barrington Declaration now represents medical consensus..

    Riight, can you back up that claim?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You're being thoroughly disingenuous again. I quoted the whole thing and then commented:

    It is certainly not obvious to me why the above views discredits his opinion that there is such a thing as vaccine fanatics. Essentially the above boils down to the view that the lockdown policies of early 2020 would have "devastating effects on short and long-term public health"

    Current consensus suggests this opinion was correct.

    I do think current consensus opinion is that the lockdowns had devastating effects on short and long-term public health.

    Do you agree?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    No that is not the consensus - effects yes, "devastating" no. And the consensus view also considers the implications of NOT locking down.

    You keep running away from the question, how were hospitals meant to continue as normal in a society where covid was allowed to run rampant? How were vulnerable people to be protected if they went in for scans, in a world where the staff working there were interacting in such a world? How were hospital services to carry on as normal, dealing with the extra volumes of hospitalisations in such a world???

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    He doesn't want to admit he subscribes to the notion that covid wasn't a big deal and not dangerous because doing so would undermine his position.


    Something something if they had time to make a dancing video something something...



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




    Covid had devastating effects on public health, which is why when cases reached peaks, countries made the decision to have lockdowns, to preserve their national health systems, and to save lives from the virus.

    There was obviously a trade-off to that, one of which was that lockdowns themselves caused their own health issues, people were unable to get certain treatment, etc. That was factored into the decisions.

    The health damage from the lockdowns can't be isolated on it's own, because, obviously, the lockdowns were working to reduce damage from the virus.

    Am not aware of any consensus that the net damage from the lockdowns was higher than the damage from the virus. Which is the subtext of your "points" here.

    Can you show us that consensus?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Again, I'll repeat the only consensus I claimed was that of the lockdowns having a devastating effect on short and long term health. There's no point in me repeating that another time, so we can agree to disagree on that.

    I don't know what the consensus on the net damage of the lockdowns is, though it does seem obvious now that many are not as convinced of the wisdom of the strategy as they were two years ago. Which is entirely to be expected, we have the benefit of hindsight.

    Forgetting about the consensus, what do you think? With the benefit of hindsight were the lockdowns the correct policy, and if not what could have been done to better effect?



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,384 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    we knew there would be disastrous outcomes for many

    but you know - we rolled the dice anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Again, I'll repeat the only consensus I claimed was that of the lockdowns having a devastating effect on short and long term health. There's no point in me repeating that another time, so we can agree to disagree on that.

    You're selectively quoting a part of the Barrington Declaration that has a superlative in front of it. Then claiming that it's now the consensus.

    The whole reason they are claiming the lockdowns caused huge unspecified superlative mega damage is because they are against lockdowns in principle. I don't recall the scientific community since forming a consensus against the lockdowns? (If so, can you please point to it)

    As for hindsight, Sweden tried a "softer" approach with less measures, okay, but it resulted in higher deaths in the first year than it's closest socio-economic neighbours. I don't get the impression that the no-lockdown, anti-measure, let everyone get Covid approach would have worked. At the time many countries implemented the first lockdowns, more than a few health systems were close to breaking point, if no action was taken, then that scenario is unthinkable.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You're selectively quoting a part of the Barrington Declaration that has a superlative in front of it. Then claiming that it's now the consensus.

    Yes. What I quoted is now the consensus.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    England tried to follow the Swedish approach... delayed full lockdown as long as possible... partied at Cheltenham when the pubs were closed here and St Patricks Day Cancelled. The cost thousands of lives in the UK and Ireland.

    It doesn't scale as an approach. They piggy backed on restrictions elsewhere, the Swedish people voluntarily engaged in significant behavioural shifts (working from home, reduced visits to pubs, restaurants, domestic travel) and still... they had significantly higher deaths.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    There were also multiple lockdowns, which meant health professionals and experts decided the benefits outweighed the drawbacks, even up to a year and a half after the first lockdown.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Forgetting about the consensus, what do you think? With the benefit of hindsight were the lockdowns the correct policy, and if not what could have been done to better effect?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Yes, even with hindsight they were the correct policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat




  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Are they over 6 million people?

    If not then it shouldn't be an issue for you given that you said that the deaths due to covid was a pittance.


    You seem to be trying to use more faux outrage but don't seem to realise you've already shot yourself in the foot in that regard.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The lockdowns (and measures) prevented deaths from Covid, by reducing cases, especially during the early period (when we knew less about the virus) and during later peaks. That has to be netted off with the number of people who died as a direct result of lockdown measures.

    There aren't many examples of countries with increasing cases that didn't have some sort of lockdown, but famously Sweden resisted lockdowns/measures, left it more up to the people, and in that year they suffered higher deaths than their directly comparable neighbours (with the same socio-economic factors, e.g. Norway)


    Also Sweden's economy didn't seem to fare better with no official lockdowns


    Even with lockdowns and measures the virus killed 6 million people around the globe in just over two years. Covid killed approx. one in every 300 Americans.

    We don't know how many would have died if we had no lockdowns/similar measures. But judging from Sweden's numbers it would have certainly been higher, probably exponentially higher in countries with higher pop density, lower socio-economic factors (pretty much everywhere else). And keep in mind many people in Sweden chose to self-isolate, and self-mask adherence was high.

    How many people died as a direct result of the temporary lockdowns? That's hard to quantify. There were almost certainly some deaths related to people having difficulty getting treatment in hospitals, or refusing to go. There was mention of increased related suicides, but stats didn't show significant increases. The economic hit is hard to quantify, but after the first lockdown of approx 1 to 2 months there was a quick economic rebound, and as we can see from Sweden's stat's they also took a similar economic hit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭snowcat


    For feck sake we have gone through this a million times. Sweden has a high population of over 70's. . Lockdowns work..no one is disputing that. It is the collateral damage is the issue.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296262/nordics-total-population-age/#:~:text=In%20both%20Denmark%2C%20Finland%2C%20and,people%20in%20this%20age%20group.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,984 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    According to you lockdowns work. According to 99% of anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers and conspiracy theorists on this forum for the last two years they "don't work".

    Moving on from that. We had partial lockdowns to mitigate some of the economic damage and other effects from having a full lockdown. It was all a question of balance relative to the number of cases plus the situation in hospitals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,236 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    And we've established that any deaths under 6 million is a pittance and not worth worrying about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 913 ✭✭✭buzzerxx


    THE REAL CONSPIRACY THEORISTS BELIEVE THAT THE GOVERNMENT CARES

    ABOUT THEM, THE MEDIA WOULD NEVER MISLEAD OR LiE TO THEM AND THE

    PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY THAT MAKES BILLIONS OFF

    SICK NESS WANTS TO CURE THEM.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 913 ✭✭✭buzzerxx


    Biggest elephant in the room

    The unjabbed aren't dying.



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