Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

1 You can for your mortgage life

2 As stated earlier, statistics show household income decreases after peak earnings around the 30 to 45 age group. Costs would also increase as as this is family formation demographic

Sunday business post yesterday had an article stating that average first time buyer age is 38 for a couple and 42 for a single person. It was discussed on the Sunday newspaper panel on newstalk.

CBI - "We're not being responsible?"

DOF - "Hold my beer"

Department of Finance pushed Central Bank for lower deposit rule on home lending

Strictly from working on medians the highest is the 40-50 age group followed by the 50-60 age group. However medians and mean can distort the real picture. A lot of women tend to re-enter the workforce from there late 40's on.

This could distort the 50's age group figure as these women would tend to enter lower wage employment. As well when lower wage workers have children going to college they tend to manage there income to qualify for grants.

Looking at the reality out there public servants will always earn more in there 50's and even 60's than they did in there 39's and 40's.

US research shows women's earning peaking at 39 and men at 53. But the US is a complete market economy.

You have to remember at the lower paid jobs in this country people in there sixties entered the labour force in there mid teens.

The reason you can see a falloff on wages as there on higher incomes in the private sector move into roles outside structured employment to manage tax and income.

I would say my income peaked twice once in my mid/late forties and again before I retired 4 years ago. Most people I know there incomes peak in there mid/late fifties where they worked throughout there life. Women's would be different in that they left the labour force for a period and often many( and it's a personal choice) priotise family commitments way ahead of work

This is all ignoring inflation too. You'll be very hard pushed finding someone who is working and who is actually earning a smaller number of euros now than they were 20+ years ago, even if they might be earning less than somebody 20 years younger than them today. The average salary has gone up by over 30% in that time.

I thought the 2008 crash created a 2 tier employment contract scenario. Those employed after 08 were on significantly poorer terms and lower wages, maybe that's correcting a little now, but once you create a precedent and get away with it....

The yellow and white lines in the graph are on different scales to exaggerate the correlation. I clicked on his twitter link to see if there was any more detail and it was just a wall of alt-right talking points against climate science and Jewish globalists peppered with simplistic one-liner self help nonsense that sound profound if you don't engage your brain for more than 2 seconds.

These videos would be a better match for the conspiracy theories forum than Accommodation & Property.

Of course they are, its from the S&p index 14 years apart.

It's to display trends and price actions only

Look at the max on below graph 08/09 looks like a blip. Comparing now to then is like comparing everest to macgillacuddy reeks

What major change occurred to justify such valuations only QE and zero interest rate policy both are reversing sharply

Would agree with what you have just stated, my problem is that the central bank that have just lifted the LTI rules, are now coming out saying that people will be in financial distress as they will be now paying nearly 40% of their income on a mortgage if they stretch to these new limits and the ECB follows suite with more rates hikes. There comes a price where things become too dear even with government (central bank) intervention.

I still see builders shutting up shop and stopping anymore house building phases going into early next year (this is the word from the builders themselves , I think this will be a world wide problem too but in the days of cheap electricity and energy the raw materials costs would drop, but sadly I cannot see them dropping (as the days of cheap electricity due to cheap gas is over) that much to make things anymore affordable.

Its extremely hard to know how this will play out, but one thing for sure supply can get a lot worse before it gets any better.

I semi retired. I have not accessed my pension yet. However my income would be better than in my twenties and as good as most of my thirties

And is that not what I stated in my first comment "40% of their income on a mortgage if they stretch to these new limits and the ECB follows suite with more rates hikes". Anyway rates may go that high who knows they are that high in a lot of other Western Countries at the minute, personally I cant see the ECB having rates that high or it would fundamentally change the whole Euro area.

I honestly believe they will hike rates globally till mid 2023, by that time we will see something fundamentally break in the financial system that will require them to do their only get out of jail card which is QE more QE and lower rates to 0.

Sadly when they do this inflation will still be at +8%, so just imagine where inflation may go to then. By right interest rates must be hiked to kill inflation no matter what the cost, they wont do this don't let them fool they'll pussy out, BOE already done it, ECB are doing it with their new Anti Fragmentation tool, only a matter of time before the Fed starts.

They have no other way of trying to tame inflation and it will come down there are way too many necessities competing for a limited amount of peoples cash. Wages over the last 24 months have come nowhere near being enough to cover inflation and it will take another decade to get wages there. Germany and its basket case that its economy finds itself in will not want QE it does not suit them and if the Germans don't want it then it simply will not happen. Inflation will come down as people simply cant pay the prices so once the war is over and the supply chain issues corrected we may well see either a lot of companies offering these services/goods at cut prices or hit the wall and with a recession going in parallel I can see a lot of deflation in about 18/24 months time. As for BOE the UK have no other country to answer too. As for Europe interest rates rising is actually helping with inflation. The FED will continue their interest rates rising as well, the US are in a recession (they are calling it a technical one) and will be out of recession a lot quicker then the EU because they acted quickly. As a matter of curiosity what is it you see breaking in the financial system I cannot see QE returning for the remainder of the decade it has not worked and has only kicked issues down the road Globally and Locally at some point the bill has to be paid.

We are not the talking about median or average incomes. We are talking about LTI and the repayments on an LTI of 4 is below the affordability threshold no matter the income.

For instance the affordability on an LTI of 4@76k income is about 26% on a 25 year loan. That is borrowing 305k.