Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I think what happened with England's pension funs/hedge funds a couple of weeks ago may end up becoming more than just England, I honestly firmly believe if something like that happens in the EU/US they will start QE and lower rates as they cannot let the fiancial system collapse they simply cannot, they done the same during the GFC, it is their only option. Sadly it will devalue the currency more and create greater wealth divides with already high inflation much puts us in a bad place in terms of social unrest especially if there is substantial job losses.

I hope I'm wrong but central banks are only one trick ponies.

FYI Germany have no bother bailing out their Energy sector at a cost of 200 billion, they will do the same with a fiancial crisis if it comes.

That's exactly what I think they will do, is throw petrol onto the burning inflation, in order to ensure the global financial system does not fail. I would say the global economic system is equally as important as they energy sector that was already bailed out, so they will have to do it again. In terms of the ECB, you seem to think that they are not partaking in QE and are tightening, they are tightening but in order for them to allow themselves to tighten without causing an eruption in the PIGS bond yield they are actively using QE as we speak as part of their anti fragmentation tool in order to control the spreads.

If they are already doing this for the weaker nations of course they will do the same for the stronger nations when the going gets tough as Leslie Sebastian Charles AKA Billy Ocean once said.

Well in terms of England, Japan and the ECB it has been already on, but the more important one too watch is the FED, rumblings of Janet Yellen wanting to basically QE for yeild control there too but I think it will be Q2 2023 before we see that on on a large scale for most Western CBs. The problem with yeild control over a sustained period of high inflation is thst the only person that ends up buying the bonds is the government themselves as no one will buy government bonds at 4% and inflation running over double that. This is where it becomes an absolutes false economy and is destined to fail at sometime in the future.

Like you I hope I am wrong because this really would not be good for inflation, fine doing QE when we are in a deflationary death spiral like GFC, but reverting to this to bail out the system when Inflation is 8+% is not going to be good.

It will just lead to higher asset price inflation of houses and share prices whilst eroding the purchasing power of the ordinary joe to a detriment dare I say uprising level.

Europe could settle for a weaker currency rather than keep raising rates once inflation starts to slow down as they aren’t reliant on imports to the same extent as other countries . The only problem with this is that oil is priced in USD so if they opt for a weaker currency they will have imported inflation.

inflation figures will be crazy till next feb/march and then it will slow as it’s a year on year comparison.

Do governments think they have oppressed people enough with lockdowns and covid for the last few years that the general population can be beaten down into submission and just deal with what you said or will people actually rise up. I would like to see people stand up for themselves but as a society when it comes down to it we may just end up rolling over and taking it. This I suspect is what the government's are banking on if they go down that route.

It is an extreme risk to take, I don't think people will fold that easily somehow expecially if this stagflationary episode comes with high inflation, high unemployment coupled with a pivot, low interest rates and unlimited QE that is used to bail out the fiancial system and prop up asset prices and housing while the average joe is getting skrewed.

I would tend to agree with you, I don't think people will tolerate it.

I don’t think it’s because of corporation tax… they might be afraid that those countries tell us to take some of the full boats that hit their shores everyday.

Back to the foreigners again?

They are being “housed” in hotels, temporary accommodation, holiday homes, even peoples homes, none of which are practical long term for workers. None of which affect the price of housing. The State is not building houses for ASs.

More off topic posts.

Dublin commercial property had been heading towards a glut ever since the Brexit Bonanza of relocations failed to materialise. A 16-month lockdown was the final nail as it kept people away for so long they gave up and moved on with their lives.

This is exactly correct, inflation is not something that can be ignored.

There will literally be riots in the streets if people are unable to afford basic necessities, not to mention the fact that all discretionary spending will be curtailed collapsing the economy at large. Inflation trumps all, in addition the ECB's core mandate is to control inflation, everything else is secondary. They've been ignoring it as large interest rates will cause massive issues for all the heavily indebted European countries, but in the end inflation trumps everything.