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Reflection on the pandemic: questions about the authorities' response.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    We got a second surge in March, which also came down of it's own volition, your data is not proving what you think it's proving....funny enough, that rise and fall was over a 6 week period too....all your data is showing is that we got a second surge during our flu season, so what?

    We can see surges of different strains of flu from the start of flu season to the end of flu season all the time, we often get two strains as far as I am aware, My argument is that restrictions do not have any impact on a viral surge....you are proving my point....I am willing to suggest that the flu virus travels through us in a similar fashion.

    You can try and convince us that we didn't see that in 2021 because of restrictions but then you'd also have to accept that restrictions don't impact the event in any way shape or form. The virus was never going to surge for 6 months straight.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It’s really quite ludicrous at this stage.

    Why do viral surges pass? Because they run of hosts

    Why do the run out of hosts? Because the number of people infected has reduced the reproduction rate as there not enough susceptible people left

    How else can you reduce the reproduction rate? By reducing the number of people that individuals have contact with

    In what alternative universe does reducing the number of contacts not reduce or delay a surge? Beats me


    There some starter reading you can do to help develop some knowledge on this. Take a look in your own time. Once done we can move you on to some slightly more advanced sources




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner



    Again, my argument is that lock downs have no effect on the impact of a viral surge. You have already proved my point thanks.

    Did we all reduce the number of people we made contact with in Jan or March 2022, no we didn't, we were fully open, we didn't do it in Dec/Jan 2021 because we were closed...in all three cases the numbers dropped after a 6 week period.

    My god man, you need to stop!

    Post edited by Silentcorner on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    I know you have bought into the R rate, and contact numbers etc etc and all the other data points the bureaucrats threw at us over the two years, but in the end, the meaningful data, the excess death rates, the hospitalizations were all exaggerated.

    Again, I know the virus was a nasty infection, I don't doubt that. But the health bureaucrats never had any control over it!!

    Please, don't ever play three card monty, no matter how confident you feel!!!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Jesus Christ. How many times does it need to be explained that infections did not drop after 6 weeks at the start of this year. Just because you say so doesn’t make it so. They just stopped testing. And since then millions have caught it. Compared to low hundreds of thousands previously,

    Whats you mr view, viruses decide to stop infecting people after 6 weeks because that’s the why! Irrespective of the characteristics of the virus and the availability of susceptible hosts?

    I think we need to step back the learning to a more basic level




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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    An increase significant enough that resulted in a level 5 lockdown (the highest level) to protect the health service is hardly something you just overlook as nothing.

    You've repeatly got basic facts wrong like when lockdowns occurred.

    You point out that as lockdown lifted the numbers increased as just seasonal. But this pattern was repeated all over the calendar. It in no way aligns with flu peaks, or viral surges as you call them.

    You completely ignore the human behavior and movements associated with the data. Just nothing zilch. Now you've given up and all the data is wrong. Because you can't make sense of it and it's doesn't fit your dogma.

    You're back to that old chestnut it's just a flu.

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    All these threads follow the same circular insular logic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,141 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio



    Course they do. You'd think the internet and free instant access to information would make people more rational.

    In fact, it does the opposite. Confirmation bias at it's best in this thread. There are none so blind as those who will not see. Or maybe better, there are none so blind as those who see g-men and conspiracies at every turn.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    I can only imagine how bored posters are listening to both us like this, it's getting very boring.

    You just put up data from March showing precisely that. You have proved my point, my own ignorance was knowledge of that surge(I was distracted for a few months in that period and was paying no attention to news at the time)...that surge in March followed the same path as the one in Jan 2022 and Jan 2021.

    They stopped testing all and sundry at the beginning of the surge because they got over whelmed...they only tested people with symptoms.

    I don't think even experts know what triggers a viral surge, let alone why they end so suddenly so I am not going to be able to explain it, and it varies from country to country, I've been though all this before I'm sure with you...you were in denial of the seasonal factor if I recall.

    "Millions caught it"...will you come out of the clouds!!!

    Stop putting up your book collection, it's pathetic!



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Certainly be interesting to find out.

    That's said it's not unusual for top civil servants to end up on multiple boards.

    The optics of it are abysmal regardless.



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  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's a shame we didn't have restrictions throughout Christmas for alpha. I'm pretty sure we still would have had a big spike regardless. The spikes followed the major variants, not the severity of restrictions. Makes sense - a new variant has lots of new hosts to infect. We were pretty much fully open in the summer of 2020 with very low case rates.

    Fact is those countries that best protected their elderly in nursing homes or who had relatively younger populations did best.

    Full lockdowns do slow the spread but at enormous cost, both financial and in mental and physical health terms as China is currently demonstrating and we never had them anyway.

    Whatever happened those ISAG nutters that were never off the air at one point?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    I'm not sure you are even reading my posts to be honest, I have just said it was a nasty infection. We don't know how it aligns with flu peaks because we don't test for flu infections. Feel free to completely dismiss the existence of the viral surge all you want, I won't lose any sleep if you do!

    The reason I don't trust the data is precisely because there is no accurate way to measure the contacts or movements of 5 million people...therefore any data related to the movement or contacts of 5 million people is rubbish!!!! Do you understand, it's rubbish!!!! It's inaccurate, pointless...they might as well pull figures out of their asses!! Either data is clean and accurate or it's rubbish!!! Too many fell into that trap, you could understand it given how our media thrust the data in front of us every day....but any reasonable person can now see how misleading the data actually was!

    We have a hospital bed stock of 11,000 - the overall occupancy rate of those beds over the pandemic/versus the previous number of years would be a very pertinent data point, but I don't recall ever coming across that...we were told how many were in hospital with covid all the time, do we know how many of those actually caught it in hospital?

    Why did they build extra bed capacity in April/May 2020 to dismantle it in Sept 2020...no one knows!! But you guys know all about R rates and incidental infections or whatever garbage ye mentioned previously!



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    But on here, people challenge the data...even if I am wrong or others are wrong, the data is being challenged.

    How can you accuse people who are challenging the data as suffering from confirmation bias....the people collecting the data are the ones who suffer from confirmation bias normally. Unless you think no one should challenge the data of course...there are none so blind they cannot see indeed, you probably still believe that covid took 8,000 lives here!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,584 ✭✭✭kyote00


    I think it’s easy to forget the early few weeks when we looked on at the situation in Italy and then New York

    italy in particular scared a lot of people into accepting the first lockdown and in truth it was the right decision IMHO based on what we knew at that time …..

    Things worth investigation imho:

    • -the public sector procurement process is unfit for purpose both in normal times and during the pandemic
    • - nursing homes death rate (early on)



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    ...

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Even at early on it was known that it was quite specific about who was at risk. The danger was if it changed at any point before they got vaccines into play. There a lot of hindsight is 20:20 vision in these threads. Very suspect memories too.

    Nursing homes are a no brainer. Understaffed, under resourced, they don't have the facilities or resources to deal with anything infectious. Any sort of bug in normal times sweeps through them, and they locked down often enough before COVID. People only go into nursing homes when they are very vulnerable and often as a last resort.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997




    Summer 2020 close contact was limited as lots of places were still shut. Also its not transmitted in low density out door activity. Crammed elbow to elbow in high density though entirely different.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    You don't need every bit of possible data to analyse it and establish patterns and trends. Bit nuts to think you do.

    If you know the data in the media is not reliable, then you just ignore it. Not be triggered by it as you seem to be. Its how they sell papers. Water off a ducks back.

    Also you shouldn't obsessively watching the news (doom scrolling) which seems to have been your habit. I don't feel the media put anything in front of me. I simply don't watch it. Check it occasionally, doesn't effect me in the slightest.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You are repeating the same errors. This year they did not just stop testing people with symptoms. They stopped testing people with symptoms and with positive antigen tests under the age of 40. The majority of the population. Over 40’s generally stopped bothering going for tests unless they needed it for a specific reason. And that was just January. They further restricted testing as the year progress. Tell me can see how looking just at cases that would appear like cases “fell off a cliff” when in fact nothing of the sort happened? So, Yes, millions. Finding someone who hasn’t had it is becoming increasingly rare. Officially there have been 800,000 recorded cases in 2022. Given the vast majority were never even tested, of course it’s millions

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah it's comments like this that are really bad for my mental health - while technically true it's highly misleading.

    Restaurants for indoor dining were fully open in summer 2020 with no masking. In fact it was only pubs for drinking and nightclubs that were closed. There should have been an explosion of infections. There wasn't. Restrictions got progressively stricter after the summer of 2020 yet cases and deaths were much higher.



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  • Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It was known but not presented that way by NPHET and the media. The emphasis was on anecdotes of fit 20 year olds in ICU.

    This kind of stuff - from a NPHET member https://www.fm104.ie/news/fm104-news/dublin-doctor-warns-of-increasing-number-of-young-covid-patients/


    Again ruinous to people's mental health. When you see a fit young person wearing an N95 outside that person's mental health is in bits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    This is where when looking at media stories you have to look at the story in context. The risk to young for people was low. But not zero.

    Also that fit looking person might have an underlying condition, or be carer for someone who is vulnerable.

    If someone mental health is unable to deal with such things they should stop looking at the media. I'm not being flippant either. It's been researched.

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Well they opened end of June. I was away on holidays in June and everywhere was closed. It's was all self catering or takeaways. Some fairly decent restaurants offered takeaways. I thought that was quite smart.

    How is misleading. Having food is generally lower density with people you know, than standing in packed bar or night club elbow to elbow with strangers. We noticed the same effect in schools. It would go through classes, but not kids out playing football.

    Also there was surge in August in 3 countries and then again in October.

    I would disagree with how it was enforced and some of the rules. But all the parks were full and the weather was good.

    I can't speak for your mental health. But I did see the effect on older people. But then even pre COVID older people would watch the news excessively watch crime programs back to back and be overly negatively. Covid only compounded that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    What a joke...

    The data the health bureaucrats published every day was used to determine what civil liberties we were allowed to have from one week to the next...that's the kind of data you want to be accurate, did you ever once even ask yourself how their modelling was so off given the amount of data they had?

    I didn't sit in front of the telly gobbling up this garbage like some on here did, that is why they can no longer think straight...you can tell the posters who spent the most time pouring over useless data!!

    Thinking that our Health Bureaucrats (who are, the most incompetent in Europe) controlled the spread of the virus for two years is this generations moving statues phenomenon!!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,301 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    Because you don't need tests and antigen tests to know what a viral surge is and when you are in one...the health service has been dealing with them for as long as there's been a health service.

    I am repeating the same error????? Would you listen to yourself, you are arguing against the existence of a viral surge despite what your own data (which was hospitilasitions by the way) demonstrated!!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    People on this thread seem to be oblivious that different strains are quite different in how infectious they were and how severe the symptoms. You're talking about different risks in 2022 as 2020 and with unvaccinated population vs vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    No never needed to ask because I'm used to working with data in my work. It's always imperfect.

    If you look at housing stats or cycling stats lots of problems with that data. But you can still work with it. If the media post stats on those you can go to the source and see where the media is being selective for click bait titles. It's still useful though as you can read between the lines.

    It's ironic that people will praise Timbuktu stats but criticize Ireland when our stats are better.



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,386 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    For clarity, I am fully vaccinated, I am 'vulnerable' from both an age and health point of view.

    I have not had covid despite being exposed. No-one in my immediate (blood relatives) family has had covid, sister is an anti-vaxxer and didn't get it despite her husband (who was vaccinated) having contracted covid - not a serious problem despite him being very vulnerable. It is now becoming evident apparently that there is significant protection genetically in a large proportion of the population. This fact alone has created scepticism in some people, the natural immunity was not known about at the start of the epidemic, and the information would not have helped even if it had been known.

    Yes, elderly people with covid should not have been put in nursing homes, this was a serious error that needs investigation.

    Otherwise, the government did what they could in the face of a situation that they had no experience of. Previous experience (Spanish flu) indicated that isolation was a very significant help, in anticipation of vaccination. Yes, the close down had some very bad effects on some people but the government had to do something and in the immediate absence of vaccination and testing it was all they could do. We can argue endlessly about whether there should have been closedown or whether the infection should have been allowed to run through the population, a decision had to be made and there will always be some - especially those with 20/20 hindsight - who will complain any decision was wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    At the risk of invoking Godwin's law.

    When they cracked the German engima codes they had imperfect radio signals to work with. So they built multiple radio recievers which all recieved imperfect data but different imperfect data. When combined it filled in much (but not all of the gaps).

    People are predicable. A high % of German radio signals would start with asking about the weather. They used that predicability to help break the codes.

    Same thing with COVID. When you get clusters it's often common human activity (habits) that has caused it. Can't really complain when such habits and flouting rules get targeted by more rules and lockdowns.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,037 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There's an irony in complaining about incomplete data then arguing you don't need it. Same with complaining hospital stats are misleading then saying you only need hospital stats.

    The % of hospitalisations and deaths is different with different strains and how vaccinated the population is. So at different times the stats are interpreted differently. Context is everything.



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