Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Ok but that could describe any authoritarian system. Nothing to do with being socialist.

I'd also push back on your assertion that the oligarchs have more freedom in Russian. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia and ended up being jailed and exiled for attempting to stick his nose in to politics. They're all fully aware that they can lose it all at any time.

Hmm... so on the one hand you advise a report that says European security capability is reduced to rubble. On the other, we have good reason to believe that western military allies could wipe out conventional Russian military within short order.

Who do we believe?

compare and contrast the above two definitions, there appear to be distinct differences

The BBC and other information dinosaurs won't give you stuff like Julia Davis' timely translations of Russian state media:

I get so much gritty and timely info from the Ukriane militaries Telegram channel it just makes the BBC and the mainstream media you so love seem like they are still in the victorian era. What they don't report vastly exceeds what they do. Not to mention the BBC's biases are gobsmacking.

No, I said NATO defending Russia, and I meant it. I brought the point up earlier in the Thread. We have listened to 2 decades of Russia Bull s* about NATO this that and the other. The reality is NATO never has been a threat to Russia, NATO members only interest has been to trade with Russia and to defend former Warsaw pact/Soviet countries from possible Russian aggression. They never had any interest in aggressive action against Russia.

Putins great miscalculation is identifying the wrong enemy. China is an Authoritarian regime and will seek to take advantage of Russian weakness for its own gain. That could be 20 years from now or 50, and Russia, a 3rd world economy with declining population will not have the power required to offer resistance.

As I said earlier in the thread, Russia will be beaten in Ukraine. That may take 1 year, it may take 5. Then Russia must find its place in the world. It is not and has not been a superpower since the mid 1980s, the only superpower is the US but China is on the way to becoming a superpower and it will covet the vast and weakly defended resources of Russia. Russia must then either submit to China, or seek protection from The West or NATO.

Here's the code to get around that one-

If: target = x

Set target: x + 3 meters right.

Cope cage is the steel cage they built on top of tanks or other vehicles to help protect themselves from Rockets or missles .

In this case they are Hoping a bucket carrying burning material will confuse a heat seeking missle and stop it hitting the tank

Any recommendations for English language Telegram channels to follow? (Preferably ones without gore and executions or anything like that)

I’d say that western smart ammunition would be able to tell the difference in the heat signature of a bucket of burning oil and the tank barrel.

You do realise that only roughly about 20% of Russia's military has been involved in this conflict, right? And apparently, if reports are accurate, it's mostly militia and mercenaries doing the fighting right now - such as the wagner group and the Chechens etc. Much of the regular Russian army has returned across the border. (it's not entirely certain why, but they seem to be planning for future operations)

The Russians have been substantially outnumbered pretty much since day one of this thing. A fraction of the Russian armed forces, is fighting a country of 40+ million people - who are heavily backed by the deep pockets of the west. This financial and military support is not insignificant. We've really never seen anything on this sort of scale before, in terms of military aid to a country in such a relatively short time-frame. And Ukraine's armed forces had been seriously beefed up already since the annexation of Crimea, so they were never going to be a push over anyway.

And then when you also factor in, that Russia cannot just go in and level cities to rubble with their air force like you might have done in ww2 against a true enemy like Germany etc... so most of Russia's key military advantages haven't been used, because this is a limited military operation. Not a war to completely destroy Ukraine. But they have always had the capability to do this. Just look at how they took out up to 40% of Ukraine's power grid and other key infrastructure, and also possibly as much as 80% of their air defences in roughly a 48 hour period. If they truly went in heavy, with zero care for human life or crucial infrastructure in these cities, there would be nothing left and the war would be over very rapidly. Most neutral military analysts recognise this. (but that's no good for propaganda)

But Russians are hearing some of the ridicule about their military capabilities, and there are increasing calls for them to stop being so careful as they are not just fighting Ukraine anymore. They are fighting the NATO alliance of 30 combined nations. So I would say western propaganda might very well have unintended consequences, in respect to how this conflict could play out. They may feel they have no option at some point, other than to meet fire with fire and start using more ruthless conventional military tactics. Or even a nuclear weapon, to end the war quickly and save lives - just like the rationale the US used against Japan. (lets hope not)

And the USA is not getting any real positives out of this. Outside of the western propaganda bubble, the US is yet again being painted in a very bad light regarding their interference and desire to dominate global geopolitics. They are viewed basically as an aggressive imperialistically bully, that has zero respect or regard for regional powers or their individual security concerns. And as a result, you can now see an even more rapid push to decouple from the US petro-dollar, because this is the main tool used to wield economic warfare through punitive sanctions. There is huge anger around the world with these sanctions, because they are harming nations that have nothing to do with this conflict. Even the Saudis seem like they've finally had enough of the yanks, and are playing their part in weakening them.

And don't be fooled about the economic cost of this to the USA or the collective west. I have many American friends, and people are suffering quite badly over in the US with inflation and cost of living - it's getting very worrying for millions of ordinary Americans. You've got quite a lot of dual income households, who are on government assistance and still can't make ends meet. I know several Americans, who are fully employed, and they're rationing food and being very careful with how much they drive their cars etc. There are massive issues around income inequality - and only getting worse over time. They're something like 31 trillion in debt, and you can't keep that up for long - it's completely unsustainable in the long term. Particularly if there is a hit to the petro-dollar, and people stop buying their debt - which is a very real possibility over the next few years. Over reliance on fractional reserve banking and quantitative easing - which is effectively just the US fed running their very own legal money printing counter fitting operation - won't keep the wolf from the door forever. Nor will draining the strategic oil reserves. The magic money tree won't be an option for very much longer. It's the road to financial ruin, and the Biden administration is going all in with this strategy. You're going to see in the mid-terms, just how unhappy the US taxpayer is with the state of things - as they're the ones picking up the tab from these loony govt policies.

Oh, and apparently they're now starting to run out of diesel fuel - less than a month left. Guess which country isn't running out of energy or food or at risk of freezing this winter? Yep, you guessed correct: RUSSIA!

Sorry, I know Tucker is persona non grata around these parts. But he is America's favourite news source, informing millions of US citizens each and everyday.

Is it likely Ukraine will make another big push before Winter?

Western media says the Russians are spent, not combat effective, poorly led, no equipment, low morale and the ranks are held together by unwilling reservists.

Why haven't we seen more massive gains by Ukraine in the past weeks?

It depends really

They are slowly enough moving to Kherson,I'd expect there will be no winter break for fighting as has been suggested in here,the Ukrainans are moving along a huge front over a thousand kms at least it's going to take time to secure everything they need to cut off Kherson and Lugansk

Even hitting the fire bucket would destroy the tank - probably kill its occupants.

Grand