Softening house market?

its all the workers that will be let go as a consequence that i would be concerned about .. and the overall knock on effect on the economy, government revenue, expenditure, debt levels and general consumer confidence plus ability of mortgage holders to repay loans rather than individual business owners who may/may not buy a house .....

But this is a thread about the property market no? I get what you're saying but I'm not sure where you're going with it.

If you asked someone who bought in 2007 what they think about someone else buying the same property next door in 2013 for 70% less what do you think they would say?

It shouldn't be this way but thats how it is with this boom bust farce. Its not right. Maybe once anyone buys they should unsub from these threads as the previous poster said. It would only melt your head.

He said He is not paying rent!! So the rent argument is not valid!

Don't do it! You will never get them out of the apartment. You are better off having the apartment free and available for viewings. You don't need some willy nilly fair weather friends to stay in your way of selling the apartment. Also apartments don't sell very quickly so keep it free.

Even in 2015/16 when the government was starting to put in place supports for FTB to encourage builders to start building there was a substantial swell of opinion against it.

The other choice was for government to engage in a large public building of social housing. If they did that at the time there would have redirected a large portion of builders away from any private house building.

Brexit and COVID complicated things. Brexit because it pushed demand in Dublin for commercial buildings ( which we probably have too many of now for WFH due to COVID)

To say that they have mismanaged the economy is not correct, every other country in Europe would love to have the Irish economy. Our problem is we have a low historical housing stock.

Historically our build labour is very mobile and still is. I know 2-3 young lads that are my eldest lads age that are working in the UK and Australia.

Workers from elsewhere in the developed economies in Europe ( Germany, UK, France, the Benelux countries )are not as mobile as they do not have this historical mobility.

Dublin of all the places has exactly the same issue the population that is there 3-4 generations are not as mobile as workers in the rest of the country

House prices are dropping. Fact. They seem to stay on the market for way longer in the last 4 months. You do see drops between 25 and 50 k.

The prices are unsustainable at current moment.

I still wonder who are the buyers who can afford houses around 600k and more that need a lot of work. Even if you can do the improvements yourself, prices of materials are really high.

Definitely houses staying longer on daft around Cork. Just saw once house that’s been up for over six months drop from 440k to 400k, interesting to see does this help shift it. Nothing obviously wrong with it other than being a bit unorthodox in design.

Well it is odd how the Irish market works though. 6 months ago a house in our estate went sale agreed for €560K and 2 months ago got sold. It was a 3 bed room and sold for over 70K the asking price.

Now a 4 bedroom is on the market for the last 3 months at 540K. But house "A" went sale agreed in less than a month and yet house B has hung around. I would also say House "B" is better than house "A", as it is owner occupied vs the other one that was rented out and will need some major refurbishment especially kitchen and toilets. That being said, I am not sure if house "B" has an offer and the owner just wants more than asking price.

But just odd that the market can go from one extreme to m'eh so quickly.

Say you see your dream house in 5 years time. Say someone elderly in your family needs to move in with you and you need to build an extension. Say all your kids move out and you want to downsize. Then imagine you have 25 years left on a massive mortgage in each of these situations. If you are Johnny stacks of cash then sure maybe it wont matter as much. If the market has tanked you can service the loss / extra costs and it won't matter when you bought. I'm guessing though as Ive never been in a money is no object situation. To me it would matter and matter a lot.

I see what you are saying though. Right now you could be paying more for rent than a mortgage. A side effect of our pathetic government and the opposite situation to the run up to the last crash. There is luck involved too for sure. It'd be a sh!t situation to feel you are railroaded into it at the wrong time perhaps due to a crossroads in your life. E.g. wanting a stable home to start a family.

I appreciate it could be a touchy/emotional subject (not saying thats you) but from a purely logical viewpoint I just cant wrap my head around how people can say it doesn't matter when you buy if its your forever home and dont think I'll ever see it that way. Its the biggest financial decision of a lifetime for most people (who arent loaded) and will have a massive say in how much freedom they have to move house in future and their % of disposable income if they buy at the top of the market.

There was a covid frenzy of activity mid last year to early this year that people are discounting, when people were still not sure when covid might strike again and were clearly willing to go a bit wild to get business done. I think that element is gone from the market now too. It doesn't help that it only takes 2 or 3 people to bid against each other and set the entire market value of the housing stock but that is the unfortunate reality.

I totally disagree with this mentality. Have you seen the rental market at the moment ? We have a slack channel at work which is dedicated to new employees at our company looking for accommodation in Dublin. People are almost begging for accommodation! It doesn't matter what you want 5 years from, if you don't have a roof over your head at the moment.

Not following what you mean here by mentality. I was debating if you could buy a house you dont plan to sell at any point between the bottom and top of the market does it matter when you buy? Are new hires a part of that debate right now? I suppose they are if they can get mortgage approval. So what do you think? Should a new hire in Dublin buy a property now or wait?

It will be an interesting first qtr next year for sure.

I think you’re correct about misinformed sellers, what they aren’t realising is that exemptions would carry people into the 4x salary range at the start of the year if they could show capacity to pay anyway. Anyone saving to buy now at the 4x range still has to show the banks 6 months of statements / savings showing that they have capacity to repay and pass the stress tests. Personally, I think interest rates increasing trumps everything else.

The only other reason for an agent to log in and increase the asking price would be agents looking to make any bids over the asking more visible to increase buying sentiment.