Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

In Sligo we have had 8 days that could be classified as colder than normal. Some of these were in June!! We had 2 mornings of snow last Winter but even them days got mild later on. We are still in La Nina and while this brings cold weather to some areas Ireland doesn't seem to be one.

I'd expect mild till 2023 then a few colder outbreaks in January.

With this very mild spell seeming to be locked in for a while, let's look at the range of outcomes that can follow such an interval. I have more weather data available for the CET than for Ireland so the years are based on mild late October spells in Britain, I'm sure the same would apply here in almost each case. The winters indicated, in chronological order rather than any sort of relative mildness, would include these (and I have summarized them for those which are further back in the records) ...

1772-1773 _ For its time, a rather average winter, some mixtures of cold and mild spells, coldest mid-February.

1821-1822 _ By Dalton minimum standards, not a very hard winter, but would suit some nowadays

1888-1889 _ For its time, a relatively average or even mild winter, brief cold spells though

1894-1895 _ say no more (coldest Feb other than 1947, severe cold in stages Jan after a mild early Dec)

1927-1928 _ an average to mild winter

(1946-1947) _ (same comment as below for 2010-2011, the milder period was mostly in Nov rather than late Oct, an epic winter followed)

1971-1972 _ a somewhat colder than average winter, late January coldest

1995-1996 _ variable

1998-1999 _ rather mild

2001-2002 _ bland in general

2005-2006 _ turned quite cold at times, Irish Sea NNW streamers mid-Nov, most of the cold spells quite dry, early March coldest

2006-2007 _ one of the mildest winters on record, briefly cold mid-February

2009-2010 _ turned cold mid-December and January very cold, Feb somewhat closer to normal, one of the coldest winters of modern times

(2010-2011) _ (not a primary analogue but 1-10 Nov was very mild then it turned much colder in stages, everyone here will recall the snowstorms of late Nov and Dec, severe cold, relaxing considerably by January 2011 though

2013-2014 _ the gold standard of mild, stormy winters, Darwin in Feb but a constant parade of severe storms all winter

2014-2015 _ a rather dry and bland winter in general

=========================

So we're no further ahead now than before starting the review since it is apparent that any outcome is possible after this sort of spell at this point in time. But it does hold out hope for a good outcome.

They say The Brothers Grimm and Hans Christian Andersen were inspired by the CFS.

It’s eye candy, not worth much for deterministic forecasting. Anything beyond teleconnection and pattern recognition isn’t worth the effort

I like you..don't go.

2 feet of snow for Xmas please.

I'm torn, I love a good decent snowfall but I know it will only bring a load of hard work for me

BFTE was worth it however even though I had burst pipes and animals with no water and roads impassable/,one or two days with most of the daylight spent slaving away feeding by hand what might only take about 20 mins normally...If I was older I might have different feelings

The conditions required for snow in Ireland make it so snow ASL is rare in comparison with locations at the same latitude. Probably driving the passion of the majority of folks in here.

I don’t know that I agree regarding snow getting rarer, notable snow is not consistent enough on the island to say it’s rare or not.

The 2000s or ‘noughties’ were shocking for snow, there was ONE decent fall in the whole decade and that was at the end of Feb 2001.

There was that slushy Xmas in ‘04 and I think a dusting in Feb ‘05 but they were so insignificant they don’t count.

How ironic that a snowfall on the very last day of that snow free decade began an epic cold spell!

My thoughts on winter 22-23 - more of the same, brutal cold in North America (where there is no evidence whatsoever of global warming during winter months) firing up the jet stream so a mild winter in Northern Europe again. More pics of snow in Athens, Rome, Nice, Madrid etc as northern blocking is now a thing of the past,

’winter’ to begin next March and April.

23c here in London today. There are tomato plants flowering outside ffs. Winter seems a long way off.

That's the exact same with me was 2010 and 13 at the time, ever since I'm here for every weather tread

Yeah definitely mild is preferable at the moment for the general good. Plenty of time to come other hats the beasts from the east and all that.

You either don't pay to heat your home or you've plenty of spare cash and spiralling fuel costs mean little or nothing to you. As much as I like snow and crisp ice days, as things stand I don't want them.