Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ECM has been showing some sort of a windy event early Sun morning for the last few runs but the last run has really upgraded it into a potent little system deepening as it crosses the country, for now through Munster mainly. For the last few runs it has been showing something but the other models havent developed anything of note for that timeframe although they do seem to show potential just off the East , in general the models are showing windy weather later Sun night into Monday in varying amounts but still uncertainty how strong. Great deal of uncertainty yet but it would seem Met Eireann are noting the ECM .

Met Eireann

Potential accumulations up until after the Sun night rain band goes through,and second chart up until later Monday.

The LP system off the SW set to move closer to Ireland later Sun / Mon bringing in further bands of rain and potential thunderstorms, getting windy /blustery at times. Will see if that system spawned from the parent low develops into anything stronger or moves closer to land for Monday. In general quite unsettled.

Some of the model predictions for 24 hr rainfall into Mon am, predictions have shifted a bit away from Kerry, big difference between N and S Kerry it would seem.

Cool nights indeed Danno, pleasant enough days under the calm conditions. Looking good for the ploughing next week, could hold mostly dry until about Thursday. I'm going Tuesday and looking nice and mild maybe getting up around 18 or 19C, if there is rain it looks light or even drizzle and patchy and could well hold dry for many places, Id say I can leave the wellies at home 😀

So a drier day tomorrow with light winds, approaching LP well off our NW sending frontal rain bands with strong winds from late Thurs night/ early Friday morning clearing the East in the afternoon, some heavy rainfall expected by the models more so in the W and NW . Maybe some thunderstorm activity in the NW.

Temps Fri generally highs of 15 to 16C

Well that run above from the ECM was certainly an outlier, only minor rainfall showing up for Southern counties overnight.

Overall a dry calm day for most tomorrow getting up to 15 or 16C and then on to Monday where it gets windy along Atlantic coasts and breezy to blustery in places overland into Tuesday. Rainfall totals building up in the W and NW with the W, NW under rainfall for much of Mon before bands of rain spread across the country from early Tues from W to E and later more rain spreading up from the SW /S into Weds.

Mild and humid for most Mon and Tues getting up to 18C or so in places before falling back on Weds.

Models showing an area of LP to deepen as it crosses Ireland early Weds, there is a huge spread on how deep it gets and how fast it deepens and models showing winds ranging from windy on coasts and blustery overland to very windy overland and even stormy on some coasts from the UKMO , too soon to know. Fast Jet a feature on Weds.

The disturbed weather pattern towards the end of the week coming a bit more into focus, just straddling 120hrs but will put in here as it looks like we could be getting wet and windy or very windy weather beginning to some extent on Thurs, peaking Friday and lasting into Saturday perhaps in some form, after that some very unsettled charts early following week but that is definitely best kept in the +120hr thread.

ECM, UKMO and ICON all showing windy to very windy day next Friday, ICON very strong but would go with the less strong ECM and UKMO for now, GFS more so windy on Saturday.

Saturday now the windier day, nothing of note Thurs or Fri, very low confidence in the models recently.

Later Friday into Saturday shows very cool uppers moving over the country aiding instability producing convective type heavy showers and a possibility of some thunderstorm activity more so along Atlantic coastal counties but could move inland also on the blustery winds.

Quite windy along the Munster coasts tomorrow and blustery inland with numerous showers but some sunny spells also. Big heavy showers convective in nature becoming blustery locally, some hail possible also and thunderstorm risk present., winds easing later in the night, cold overnight.

Sunday into Monday sees a LP system move up along the W coast of Ireland, deepening initially on approach and slowly filling off the W, models have been showing stronger winds now on the last few runs, ICON about an average of the models at this stage but UKMO much windier and latest 18Z ECM showing winds now stronger too, some warnings coming into effect it would seem. Heavy frontal rain up over the country on Sunday with possibly some thunderstorms embedded and following on after for a time. Variable winds on Sunday, initially strong SE to S and veering strong to v windy along the SW and W later Sunday into Monday morning , veering from the SW to W from early Mon and later to the NW in the N half of the country with showers in the NW but becoming drier for much of the country.

Possibly some rainfall warnings also on Sun into Mon especially as it is coupled with strong winds .

Heavy bands of rain look a feature this week that will produce big rainfall totals especially in the SW, S, SE where flooding looks to be a possibility.

Thunderstorms quite possible later Tues into Weds morning along the SW, S and SE coasts mainly, a lot might stay offshore but some could stray inland also. Again during Weds another active front could bring thunderstorms with some very heavy local falls, preliminiary charts look very active during Weds day into the night spreading up the country, must have a closer look at this.

I dont know JanurarySnowstor, looking very heavy overnight late Tuesday into Weds morning, AROME showing widespread 30-40mm and good parts getting 50mm+ and the area just to the East of Cork City getting 70 to 80mm all in about 18hrs, getting into a possible Orange warning level I would think.

Must be said the American models showing less at this stage, ICON showing a bit more than GFS but less than the others, HARMOIE showing the higher totals further East. A better idea of what area gets the heaviest rainfall might need a couple more runs but the chance of some very heavy rainfall is possible.

Some very high totals showing up for the next 24 hrs or so, GFS is probably the lowest and perhaps not performing as well as the European models with this kind of a set up. Interesting how the HAMONIE is foccussed on the East.

A couple of models showing around 80 mm + in places but as can be seen showing different locations, high end orange warning , could it even go to red warning level ?

European models have been ramping up very windy conditions next Weds along with some heavy rain, temperatures falling back next week and moving to to more normal seasonal values from Monday , will feel cooler getting up to highs of around 10 to 12C or so during the day with colder nights .

No shortage of rain. Potential for a very windy or stormy event towards next weekend, better left in the +120hr thread for now.

Was wondering the same thing myself, they are remarkably quiet about it, certainly looking very strong now for a number of runs, ECM stronger again this run, widespread yellow and orange very possible in some counties I would think. Bit to go yet with timing but certainly looks like the coastal counties will get a fair lash of of potentially damaging winds from Weds morning, many of them in Orange territory, very strong winds overland for a time, wouldn't be surprised that this storm will cause some damage even inland, some very high mean wind speeds overland especially in the Northern half of the country from the afternoon, could see a lot of counties there get winds in the Orange category for a time. Relatively fast moving storm deepening on its approach down as low as 971hPa , unstable airmass , heavy frontal rain with heavy blustery convective showers embedded, quite possibly getting thunderstorms especially along the Atlantic Seaboard after the front goes through in the unstable airmass, initially about 12 or 13C but getting much cooler post frontal passage. High rain totals in the W, NW but anywhere under convective showers cold get heavy rain.

One to keep an eye on.

LP dominated weather with a smaller area of LP breaking away from the parent low sending in frontal rains and strong winds through Monday. Met Eireann have issued wind warnings. Wet day Monday also with heaviest falls along Atlantic coastal counties especially higher ground and in particular the Mountains of Kerry. Later into early Tuesday Morning possibility of thunderstorm's along southern coasts but mainly staying over the sea.

Looks set to get up to 14 or 15C tomorrow and possibly touching 16C in places in those mild southerlies.