Softening house market?

I don't see how that disagrees with what I said.

Property is long term. If you're buying to flip or trade up, it's a different mindset.

Buying to save rent is valid to a point. If you are renting it's possible you're not ready to be tied to fixed location for a long time.

Bertie and his govt were asleep at the wheel. They just copied everywhere else (or did nothing) and got sucked into the same problems.

However they are not immune to energy costs and diesel in particular either.

I cannot see labour costs falling in Dublin. 50%+ of construction workers commute in a devout of Dublin. That has a time and travel cost effect. The extra cost of fuel and general maintenance costs has probably added 100/week to these workers costs on average. But averages can decide, many are travelling 80-100 miles each way per day. This is not in card doing 50+mpg but in fuel hungry van and small pickup trucks.

I can see prices getting more competitive in the commuter towns into Dublin but in Dublin itself I can see construction slowing to a minimum. There is no option of staying in Dublin either as the cost of this now exceeds even present transport costs.

I can see costs fall outside of Dublin but in Dublin I can see construction stall completely. There is evidence already of no new projects starting and no prep work for new build's taking place.

One of the last. ? Why ?

Maybe I'm not understanding you. Your saying Ireland would be last to go into a recession because of tech companies who are currently stock wise doing badly..

Tech is just working on the next drug to pull us in. Round about the last crash you started seeing really decent mobile devices, iPhone, app stores, fast mobile cheap internet, fast broadband, social networks ... so tech just kept rising.

It only takes one or two hardware advances or a killer app or a pandemic for tech to take off again.

Now, that might not happen here or may be outsourced elsewhere, but it will happen. And they may no longer be able to run profits through Ireland.

Tech is used to squeeze the last bit of marrow from the bone.

I am always constantly amazed about what's happening in tech. Blink and you are a year behind.

A 500 euro game console can produce better computer graphics in real time than Pixar could produce over days costing $$$$ in the 90s.

Zoom video conferencing is so good it's star trek stuff.

But back to housing. Yeah, Irish people will have to spend their time and energy worrying about and paying mortgages instead of creating companies like Pixar and Zoom and will be totally depending on foreign investment.

A total depressing **** show our addiction to housing has caused.

Maybe they can automate house building parts with standard plumbing and electrics that can be user replaced ... and photo electric roofs for solar and ... ...

I think the majority of building work like extensions will be left on the waiting list while prices are so high I can not see anyone prioritizing big ticket items like an extension or new car until prices have come back to some semblance of normality. All vanity projects wont be going ahead you might get a few that are necessary and of course those who are super rich will probably keep going but everything else is flatlining at the minute and will stay that way until costs have been driven down.

Okay.

But I don't accept successive governments could not have done vastly better in relation to housing.

Eoghan Murphy especially was completely out of his depth as Housing Minister and made a bad situation worse.

And vested interests - construction lobbyists, tax "experts", the legal profession, estate agents and others get the ear of government in a way the struggling house buyer never gets.

Going to view a house this weekend that was originally on the market for 950, we had enquired about it originally and were told it was generating "a lot of interest" but there were no bids yet. We decided not to bother. The price dropped to 925 a few weeks ago so we've decided to give it a look, still no bids apparently.

I'm taking this as definitive proof the entire market is tanking.

I disagree. But what products that are manufactured in China or other Asian countries that you think that will be moving to western countries in the next 5 years or so ? The only thing I can think off is Semiconductors and that is purely because most ARM chips going into all new gadgets are made in Taiwan.

Its not builders it the workers. Very few builders employ staff,(especially trades) directly most are paid as subcontractors, some subcontractor's will have a few lads working for them. On a house building site only the general operative element is usually directly employed. Even some of these, such as machinery drivers are often contracted in from plant hire companies with the machines.

Locally I know of 2-3 subcontractors that vary between small building project's and subcontracting into sites.

One lad runs a plastering outfit two crews( during the last boom he only had one crew) but also dose extensions. He hired in specialist skill in those cases ( blockies, electricians and plumbers).

Another lads is mainly housebuilding at present but carries out a lot of roofing jobs as well.

Blockies tend to work on piece or job rates. Pricing houses or commercial jobs by the sqmetre of work completed.

Electricians and plumbers are like gold dust for the last two years, impossible to get them to do small jobs unless you have a good relationship with them. Main problem with access electricians is the certification, you need a RECI cert the ESB. However a lot of electricians are now working directly for MNC's etc.

Better half nephew is working for a telecoms company only qualified for a couple of years, basic is 1-1.1k/week + benefits,( van, HI, a bit of pension) and a bit of OT on top and he is in Limerick not Dublin.

Problem for Dublin is 50% of lads working in the building sector (regardless of trade or professional) are commuting in and out of Dublin every day. Engineers, QS's etc have the option of WFH a couple days a week but you cannot lay blocks or plumb a house from at home.

Mr Makhlouf said Ireland has a significant role to play because it hosts a €5.6 trillion funds sector that is the third largest internationally.

That means "the financial stability risks are self-evident, as are the risks to investors, consumers and the community as a whole", Mr Makhlouf said.

Central Bank's Makhlouf warns over huge risks from non-bank sector

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40997279.html