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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,159 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I read that and report(I'll try and dig up the link to the PDF) after it was pointed out to me by a pro Russian type I know(he got it from one of the pro Russian youtube spinners). Yep, it's legit alright, open for all to see.

    And again the obvious elephant in the room question is: did anyone in the Russian leadership read same? If they did then why in the name of basic intelligence did they walk straight into doing precisely what the Americans wanted them to? Either a) they didn't read it and their intelligence services don't deserve the name when any noname can read it on the interwebs, or b) they did read it and are so cretinous they walked into the trap anyway.

    In either case this seems appropriate.


    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Russia have pretty much been loosing territory from April on.

    But as soon as they take some back arse village the usual idiots on here say Russia are winning and Ukraine should surrender etc....



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,623 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Hardly surprising. Russia still has massive foreign currency reserves which North Korea desperately needs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What winter? 800 Orcs are being killed each day - total is now:

    With a reported 40,000 of what passes for the Orc 'best' in Kherson, that rate of attrition will soon lead to a rout, I suspect and hope. In general I am getting a sense they are tearing them to pieces.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,281 ✭✭✭Gmol


    Some times you've got to stand up to a bully as should have been done to Hitler , Ukraine is fighting for their very survival, they've experienced being under Russian control previously and have no wished to return. If the UK invaded Ireland should we just roll over for them?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Poland starts building a new fence around Kaliningrad after it was announced flights are to start arriving from Africa and the middle east, expect more migrants to be pushed into Poland and it's neighbors like what we seen from Belarus weaponising migrants previously




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Those estimated KIA numbers have really blown up in the past week. Are the Russians using WW1 tactics with their mobiks or what?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That's probably their newly mobilised cannon fodder getting thrown into the meat grinder.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    It's pure cope from the ukrainians, almost 80k russians "liquidated" would means anywhere from 240k to 800k wounded which is the entire russian army gone, including logistical/support roles who wouldnt even be in combat.

    None of these figures are verified independently, simply taken as gospel from the ukrainian MoD. They do not hold up to any real scrutiny however.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    If you can give us a fault proof headcount go ahead.

    Most of the claims since day one have been pretty close to the button give or take a thousand



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    ☢️The Russian Foreign Ministry allowed nuclear war.

    Officially, it sounds like this: the use of nuclear weapons is hypothetically possible "in response to aggression", "when the very existence of the state is threatened".

    Unofficially: when Putin wants to

    INFO FRONT

    That seems to be the Ukrainian take on the meeting the US are so recently concerned about. I hope it's just more orchestrated sabre rattling. Are they really so naive that they think making such noises is going to magically stop a hot war and give them a breather or a win via peace talks?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Nobody can give a fault proof headcount thats the point - as for assertions like:

    Most of the claims since day one have been pretty close to the button give or take a thousand

    How can you claim it's been close +-1000 if all you are going off is Ukraine MoD claims? You're basically comparing the same thing with itself and stating "Looks good to me"

    The only people who actually know the casualties are the Ukraine MoD (who will lie) and the Russian MoD (who will lie). Some OSINT types have been accumulating death notices of people known to be in the combat zone, but this is incredibly slow work with many gaps. To date none of their estimates come close to that of either Ministry of Defense for the # of dead opposition soldiers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Ukraine is not in NATO and it is none of Russia's business if they want to apply to join. You know NATO was a handy excuse to invade and that has been debunked countless times here already, most likley to yourself under one of your other accounts. Leave N Ireland out of it as you haven't a clue about that either. The only stupidity I see is in your posts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Anywhere from 240 to 800k wounded based on 80k dead?

    As they used to say in the leaving cert: Show your calculations



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    What scrutiny? Yours?

    US intelligence estimates Russia's losses in its war on Ukraine at about 500 soldiers per day - NYT - 12 August, 2022

    That was 6 weeks ago, I get a sense things have really picked up in the last week - 60 tik tokkers in their Barracks one day, and 200 Wagner group wiped out the next via close order battles in their own base of operations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,042 ✭✭✭rogber


    More likely wildly inflated numbers for propaganda purposes. It's a war, all sides lie, including the good guys



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,623 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I am inclined to believe the figures that the US and UK give. They had the Russian casualties number at 80k (killed, wounded, captured, missing). This number is out of date, we're probably looking at a number north of 100k now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    No doubt it's a high-level estimate given the source.

    As for that ratio that you're using - that assumes a scenario where wounded soldiers are given life saving treatment on the battlefield and promptly evacuated to hospitals. If they instead just bleed out and die that significantly lowers that ratio.


    Here's a table showing those numbers for wars that Americans have fought in:


    In the large conventional 20th century wars that ratio ranged from 1.7 : 2.8

    The OEF and OIF 21st century conflicts were characterized by large numbers of IED attacks that tended to injure soldiers rather than kill them. They also weren't being bombarded with artillery, far from the safety of a base on a daily basis.


    There was also this from a few months ago which, at the time tallied with what the UA had as their estimate. If this document has been debunked then I'm all ears:





  • Registered Users Posts: 3,432 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    I don't see them making much inroads in Kherson in the next few weeks myself. Hopefully I'm wrong. Svatove though could and should be under siege from the Ukrainians within a few days.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I dunno, Timmy will probably show his workings for his 10:1 wounded:dead ratio.

    Or maybe he believes the most up to date official Russian figure of only 6000 dead, which begs the question why they mobilised 300k 🤷‍♂️



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Hearing so many mixed messages about Kherson but yeah it seems like that's going to be a tough slog. The guys on the War on the Rocks podcast have just visited Ukraine and that's the sense that they had about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In historical times, ratio of dead to wounded averaged around 3:1

    In modern times with modern medicine that ratio can go between 10:1 or 17:1 in the US, but Iraq and Afghanistan were fundamentally different to other conflicts as it was more insurgency that full scale war.

    Huge difference between ~70k dead, and 80k dead/wounded/captured. Close to 100k total casualties is a far more realistic number

    One of the things that has changed in those times is that armies have realised the burden that a badly wounded person is as opposed to a dead one. Plenty of artillery munitions and drone-grenades are based on the principle of giving disfiguring injuries and wounds rather than aiming to kill, because it increases the burden on the opposition. Munitions designed to shrapnel are seeing increasing use, particularly for entrenched positions. Horrible things, but they are reported to cause more wounding.

    Even without that however, given the nature of this conflict is far more conflict at a distance, with shelling, drones, and MLRS being chiefly used, most wounded would still remain in "their sides" territory, and be much easier to recover. Finally theres the fact that the russians have been trying to defend what little territory they have for the most part since the Summer, and though they no doubt took a few 1000 in losses during their retreats in Kharkiv, its been mostly defending entrenched positions. I would be shocked if the wounded to dead ratio was less than that of US in WW1's 1:1.8.

    So taking that as our lowest figure, would mean 70k dead : 126k wounded. 190k casualties, more than the entire forces first committed to the invasion SMO.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,137 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Is there any possibility liquidated is losing something in translation and refers to all killed and captured / wounded and captive in Ukraine?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    In modern times with modern medicine

    Quaint that you believe the Russian cannon fodder are getting access to modern medicine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,597 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    The problem, you are dealing with a dog in the manger attitude, or rather dogs in the Kremlin. When they can't have Ukraine, they deny everyone else. That's why the nuclear weapons question keeps coming up. Even if the Ukrainians can militarily force the Russians back to the positions on February 23rd, that's not the end of it, for that to happen the Kremlin has to fall or the Ukrainians will not be able to rebuild, the Russian security apparatus will lick their wounds, apply lessons, re-establish control and come back again.

    The demand is "The Russians need to withdraw from Ukraine". If that happens today what then? There is no line of sight to an off ramp for the Kremlin (by that I mean the Silioviki). There is no evidence that the Russian population is going to turn on them bar a significant military defeat whereby the security state loses the will to power, therefore as long as the military have access to resources they will keep going. Who is going to march on Moscow?

    At present the Russians are destroying the electrical and water infrastructure across Ukraine. Limiting electricity makes it harder to move trains and soldiers and it also limits military intelligence gathering, fuel and food distribution (Diesel supply is constrained). The Russians are laying the ground work (from their point of view) for an attack on a NATO country infrastructure (specifically Britain). Their current actions on the ground are establish lines they can hold over Winter and use the time to train up the reinforcements before launching a major attack in the Spring. For that to succeed they somehow need to stymie NATOs intelligence gathering to give themselves time to establish control of the battle space.

    The Spring fighting will be bloody and if it fails the Siloviki will turn on each other, indications are they are already at each other throats. If however, it succeeds NATO countries will marshall their forces and directly engage the Russians i.e. the war will expand further.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭Slava_Ukraine


    russian and modern in the same breath is one hell of an oxymoron :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I am surprised this seems to hardly have raised an eyebrow. Ukrainian special ops blew up 4 helicopters at a millitary airbase in Pskov - 839 km from Kyiv, deep inside Russian territory.


    This and other incidents likely prompted this assessment:

    Nov 1, 2022 - Press ISW

    Effective Ukrainian partisan attacks are forcing the Kremlin to divert resources away from frontline operations to help secure rear areas, degrading Russia’s ability to defend against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives, let alone conduct their own offensive operations.




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,402 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I do think you are right about the spring, particularly if there is no spectacular successes by UKR in the meantime like liberation of Kherson and Mauripol. Lets hope the russian fascist state doesnt get time to rebuild for a spring offensive and they eat themselves from within instead.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I have seen video evidence that some are - those fortunate enough to be captured by Ukrainian forces after being left to die by their fellow Orcs.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭zv2



    ...

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



This discussion has been closed.
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