Share Picks 2022

I see this mentioned a lot, and it's complete BS. Monthly purchases for an ETF would mean 12 transactions you have to calculate the purchase price and current price for. It would be 15-20 mns work I'd say. It's the same as someone who makes 12 stock sells in a year.

It's max an hour. And BTW, DD means for regular savers, every year after year 8 you need to do the return.

But it's a CGT return, everyone buying and selling anything has to do a return every year. Anyone in a Share picks thread needs to do one each year and picks it up very quickly. It's max an hour work, a lot less than stockpickers put into selecting stocks or their favourite Investment Trust.

All the FAANGS tbh, look at Alphabet down below $100 today, 52 week lows every day. Where is the bottom here? Id say theres going to be some rocket lit the day the fed announces they're done with interest rate rises.

I still feel we need to weather the recession first. Tech stocks have had their pullback, but broader markets haven't had a major pullback yet IMO

What's done is done, learn lessons and move on. We've all taken losses in our investments

Yeah you're right, it should. Certainly for the first 8 years it traded off the dream.

In the last year with all the other Social Media stocks down 60-80%, Twitter should have been, it was propped up by Musk's $54.20 bid. But for that it would have been a $15-20 stock IMO

Taking an absolute bath on Atlassian today, down 32%

I do not think he will. He is already losing advertising revenue some big companies have jumped ship. He bough it on a whim, then when he took.it over he jumped in both feet first.

His original idea to charge 20 dollars was reduced to 8 and that is only for verified users. This revenue stream was only bringing in 6-7 million per month anyway.

He has laid off 50% of the staff and all the management. When did you last see that in a corporate takeover. He has probably broken employment law in 5-6 jurisdiction, there is a class action in California already. Along with that this type of uncontrolled sackings will leave gaps in the organisation these are not telesales employees or production line staff.

Taoiseach and Micheal McGrath have been critical of the process already ( and this in a country that never criticises an MNC or what they do.

Finally the reason advertisers do not want rednecks is they do not spend money on tech gadgets or perfumes. They buy guns and crewcabs. They are not spending there.money on items advertisers sell.

The only thing is if you are buying EFT's and holding longterm 5+ years it unlikely that any will be loss making. Biggest catch is the 41%V 33% tax rate and the 8 year tax clause whether you sell or not ( you really have to sell to restart the clock)

My logic at the time I bought Twitter was, it was a company with huge growing site traffic, but it just couldn't monetise it. It was crying out for a new CEO who would shake things up. I didn't think it would be Musk though.

Google at below 90 screams a buy for me

If they were treated equally for tax they are absolutely the best vehicle. I had them as 100% of my portfolio until the tax regime changed.

Its the combination of deemed disposal and inability to offset losses that makes them a scary prospect. You can’t just hold your losers until they’re winners, as after 8 years you’ll be forced to sell and crystallise any losses. If you’re 100% confident that, buying monthly, you’ll never ever have a loser over an 8 year time frame, then cool, go for it.

Add in that for most people, it’s difficult to say with absolutely certainty that you can hold long term, there are very material drawbacks that need to be considered.

I agree with all your other points.

Oh and ability to bed and breakfast for €1,270 tax free gains every year is a nice perk for people with smaller portfolios.

I bought some Apple yesterday at circa $138. I know it's at high price multiples at the moment, but the performance figures are just insane.

Year to Sept 2022, it generated a Net Profit of $100B (25% of Revenue). Spent $89.5B on share buybacks and $14.8B on Dividends. It generated a whopping Return on Investment of 66.7%.

It's no wonder Buffett likes it so much. It's a money printing machine.

Funnily enough I got rid all my limited amount of aapl and Brk-b after the Chinese party conference. They’ve a great model… Until it’s legislated against. There’s an awful lot of pushback against the Apple Store tax in multiple jurisdictions at the moment. There’s no way they’re keeping that high much longer. I also have fear how much they depend on China. They are massively exposed to the whims of Xi Jinping. If Taiwan was to kick off tomorrow they’d be absolutely fooked.

And as much as they’re trying to diversify into the likes India, they’re still really caught. I’ve a friend who’s an engineering manager at Apple who has gone and overseen the setup of a few Foxconn facilities in the past and he’s extremely negative on Apple’s ability to get out. It’s not what everyone things in terms of Labour, it’s the most basic building blocks of the supply chain that are at issue. He’s described it as an almost impossible task.

Amphenol is a big player in this area.

40% Apple

10% Bank of America

8% Coke

8% Chevron

7% American Express

4% Kraft Heinz

3% Occidental Petroleum

and the rest made up of 40 smaller companies. Any of which could make it big - everything fromCitigroup to Activision Blizzard, Snowflake to GM, StoneCo, Amazon and even for some reason some S&P ETF's (I think they may use that as cash)

It's a great lesson for any of us, go big on your biggest convictions, then a bunch of moonshots

For me time is a key component to investing, I buy in traches of €2.5k, buy individual shares and try to diversify in terms of currency and the type of company. The only exception was with Apple a few years back where I bought more. I do not plan to sell anything within a 15-20 year timeframe unless one share constitutes a large % of my holding.

Few reasons for this would be 33% v 41% exit rate, any fund charges and a deluded self belief that I can make reasonable decisions and over time you have a better chance of a return.

Over 10+ years I would expect that a few would be complete right offs but would hope a couple have substantial returns.

Some rally in US stocks today. Up around 5%.

Mighty. Actually took a little bit of profit on some purchases I made just yesterday. You just can't be sure how long rallies last these days 🤷‍♂️

Probably the biggest daily jump ive ever had, when i logged in i thought it was a glitch!

Whole portfolio up over 7%.