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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    They look like they've been caught doing something behind the sofa. Very odd picture....



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,198 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Well no.

    Majority of MNCs in Ireland are medical, pharma and hardware, which are going nowhere any time soon. Something like 13 of the top 15 medical device companies have offices in Ireland, and not just a brass plate on the wall for tax reasons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    It will be another nail in the coffin of Dublin though as I don't think many of these bricks n mortar MNCs are in the city of Dublin, which is generally geared more towards big tech companies that are, unsurprisingly, implementing hiring freezes and even cutting jobs. Good to take some heat out of the demand side for rentals after many years of far too much demand pressure when supply was so muted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,198 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I don't think celebrating job losses because property and rent prices might fall is a good thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 250 ✭✭gaming_needs90


    Looking at houses now and its so difficult to know what to do. Has anyone done an analysis on the possible effects of the 4X lending rule combined with higher interest rates? I presume its another one of those "too many variables" to properly say.

    On a general point, its very hard to also know when to stop house viewings and pick one or aggressively start bidding. There are always more/better houses potentially on the horizon 😅 We have viewed three houses in person so far and have almost jumped at all three, which seems far too quickly now that I think about it in the light of day.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Why? If you think an economy with rents and house prices doubling in ten years is something to celebrate than I would say that is not a good thing so should not be celebrated.

    The housing situation has made further economic growth unsustainable as there are zero rentals available so companies cannot expand and hire more employees until supply picks up. Muted growth and some job losses in a few companies will hurt demand for rentals and allow supply to catch up. This is necessarily a good thing.

    The lost revenue to the State is irrelevant as we can all see that balanced books is a myth and in fact the State runs the country on borrowing, which is evidently limitless.

    The last thirty years, FF and FG have done their best to squander the wealth that came into this country. There is a fallacy that somehow FF and FG were responsible for opening up Ireland to this FDI model, but in reality, all Western countries experienced the similar economic growth trajectories over the same time period so in fact FF and FG just happened to be in power when it happened. However, FF firstly in the build up to 2008 utterly squandered all of that wealth, leading to a devastating recession and post 08 FG have done their best to scare off this foreign derived wealth from the country by making the whole economic situation unsustainable in the long run. They are two parties that have individuals that should be tried for treason for squandering the wealth of the last thirty years and setting us up for a second crash in the last 15 years by not being competent enough to invest any of the wealth. The country will reap what it sows for voting in these criminals and into next year it won't be pretty in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,198 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    So if I don't celebrate job losses cooling the market then I must be celebrating doubling house prices?

    I'm not going to bother replying to the rest of the waffle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I am celebrating job losses though?

    I am merely commenting on its impact to the property market as this is the property market forum. This news will alleviate some pressure on the demand side for rentals as will the general slowdown in big tech MNCs and, considering we are in a devastating housing crisis, that will go a bit of the way to starting to correct the imbalances in our housing demand and supply factors. In that regard, I think it is good to see demand for €2k+ pm rentals take a hit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,696 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    Just in regard to a town/village like Clarecastle

    Generally properties available ranged from 19-25 this year

    At 16 now which is the lowest I remember in a long time - Many there (that I'd have considered ok pricing and look good) are stagnant on the site

    Either people have calmed down on trying to cash in, or people have reigned back on buying (or both)



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,408 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    I've noticed a slowing in listing alright. It could be mostly seasonal factors though.

    At this point in the year, anyone wanting to sell (particularly for inheritance reasons) would surely hold out till new year for the increase in borrowing limits.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,082 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    Many of them are - Novartis, Regeneron, Amgen, Pfizer, GSK, BMS, Alexion, Janssen ... the list goes on including lots of CROs and diagnostics and medical equipment companies etc. Doesn't sound like you know the field



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Dante


    Not really, no. Asking prices are still high as is demand judging by the various bidding wars I'm finding myself in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,696 ✭✭✭✭callaway92




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,952 ✭✭✭Morzadec


    It's hard to know what to do, I imagine each area is different too in terms of supply/demand. My experience of trying to buy in D12 (mainly Crumlin/Walkinstown area) recently is showing that a softening has definitely already happened, with it being unclear if there's going to be a big fall to follow but certainly some signs pointing that way in terms of the seeming supply/demand dynamics. We've ultimately gone Sale Agreed on a place at asking price (475k). If you had told me 3 months ago we'd get this place at asking I'd have been delighted as all I was hearing from friends trying to buy in the area was multiple bidders and properties going above asking. I think 6 months ago this place may have gone over the 500k mark, so we're feeling satisfied, though definitely wary that we could perhaps have waited a bit longer. Since we started looking there's been a massive increase on the supply side.

    There are still some ridiculous bidding wars going on, for any turn-key/stylish property. We were bidding on a 2 bed in Crumlin (albeit a very big one at over 100m2, with a front room that could have been a 3rd bedroom) - it was very very nice, but ultimately a 2 bed in Crumlin and it ended up going for 490k.

    There are 3 properties in this area priced at 475k that we viewed that we thought were decent enough and at the time seemed reasonably enough priced that have all now gone down to 450k - interestingly one is in fact a turn key newly refurbed property. I thought it would have fetched at least the 475 asking. There's another one at 475k that we registered to big on but never ended up making an offer - and afaik there's no offers there yet as I would have got a notification. Lots of properties are getting underbids - talking to friends looking in this area 6 months ago, the idea of an underbid was unthinkable. Didn't see a huge amount of viewers in each place we were looking.

    There's a feeling now that perhaps we could have waited and maybe got our place for 5-10% cheaper in 6 months or a year. But ultimately we like the house, like the area and we feel that it's an "up and coming" area of sorts (so that any drop in the market might be counterbalanced by the area being seen as more desirable in the next 5-10 years). We also think we have already benefitted form the softening market - there's a house a few doors down that went at almost the same price as what we're paying that needs a full refurb, whereas ours is ready to move in and has been recently insulated and rewired. Then you add in the rent you're paying. If we wait a year we'd need prices to come down around 5% to break even, if we wait 2 years 10%. And that would be 1 - 2 years living in a smaller house. We like the house/area, it's a bigger house for cheaper than our current rent, and we're 35 with a baby on the way so we can't keep waiting forever. So for us it makes sense to pull the trigger, though I can understand why some might be waiting.

    I think my advice would just not to get involved in a bidding war that goes over asking. There are options now, getting a place at asking (or even below) is possible. Bidding wars are never going to lead to value - a few months ago we might have said you have no choice but to engage in one, now there's a lot of choice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,577 ✭✭✭Dante


    Seems like it, its mainly around Malahide in the 400-600k mark.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,198 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Focusing on ‘value’ as being relative to asking price is very odd.

    We bought our place at €50k under asking. We missed out on a place that ultimately went €300k over asking. The one that went €300k over asking, in hindsight, was probably better value.

    Asking prices are largely a complete nonsense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,952 ✭✭✭Morzadec


    True, asking prices can be arbitrary but are usually a decent enough guide. And the places I saw going considerably over asking were ones that seemed poor value. A 2 bed mid-terrace around 70m2 that went for 440k, listed at 360k for example. On the other hand saw one listed at 330k that went for 380k and I think the buyers got a fair price there. I agree with you that it's not always going to correspond but it will usually be a decent guide. I'd say the exact example you mention is rare enough. But definitely any buyer should assess if they feel the asking price seems reasonable to begin with, relative to other properties they've viewed. I'd actually advise the poster I initially responded to to go view as many properties as possible for this reason (even ones you think you won't be too keen on, or that might be a bit beyond your budget), as you should be able to gauge it better having seen more properties.



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    Novartis are cutting jobs in their Dublin 4 office, Regeneron just hadvea corporate office in Dublin city, Pfizer, GSK and BMS are out at the edge of the countryside in West Dublin, not Dublin city. I was specifically referring to Dublin city, around where the large offices would be in Dublin 2, a bit of Dublin 1 and Dublin 4.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,568 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    You also have to factor in that you have probably fixed now at sub 2.5% for five years. If in a year or 18 months time you take out a five year fixed you will probably pay 1% more for it. On 400k that is about 4k per year or 20k over the term of the fixed period. That is near 5% of the value of the house.

    If you are renting at present you would need prices to drop 7-10% every 12 months( over the next 2 years anyway) to break even in the present environment. And that is to break it even. To make it worth your while you would need another 4-5% on top of that. Will houses drop 20-25%+ in the next couple of year's,???

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 4,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭GoldFour4




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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,936 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Same, Im Limerick-centric but I keep an eye on the rest of the country aswell as I have family members bidding in Galway and Dublin atm too. Limerick is ridiculous, there is literally nothing worth buying, anything even half way decent goes for 50% or more over asking but its the same in Galway aswell, cash bidders vs mortgage approved any estate agent I talk to reckons its about 50:50 these days. I think posters in this thread are being wildly optimistic.

    Heres a fine example, nothing really special about it apart from the extension and it looks tiny in person compared to these photos, that living room is the size of a box bedroom in person.

    Listed for €215,000, the last bid there today before the auction closed was €318,000. Multiple bidders, demand is just crazy and nothing being built.

    Heres one I actually bid on. Listed for €235,000. Bidding still going up over €315,000 before they stopped it and sold it to a family member instead.

    Post edited by L1011 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Whoever buys that first property for €318,000 is going to ruined. lol.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,568 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The Woodview house would not be cheap in a Limerick context, comparable to Dublin prices yes.

    The St Joseph's House would be. But considering they are virtual auctions they were probably undervalued anyway.

    I am not sure what makes you think that the wealthy will jump ship. Wealthy people always sit out recessions

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,936 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Check the property price register, nothing used to go for more than 250k in Caherdavin but all of a sudden desperate people are going up over €320k, there might not be another house like that second one on Daft for another 8 weeks or more now and the same thing will happen then. The first one is a joke, those are €200k houses on a good day in the last Celtic Tiger, they were €175 when I moved down here 2 years ago. Nothing is being built and now things are slowing down even more meaning the fight for the shrinking pool will get more vicious and now people have 4X their income to play with. Predicting that these prices are going to collapse is just laughable, this is government policy along with the forbidden topic we're not allowed talk about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,936 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Or they'll be happy with their new home even if they're still paying in their seventies and will sit back as desperate couples pay €350k around them in a years time, nothing is being built and the population is increasing all the time, its just insanity.

    Of the new builds that are being built in Limerick there are some horrible shoeboxes out in Mungret for €450k, Mungret is basically a village outside Limerick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,236 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Trying to figure out, what is the price band where we see the biggest selling /buying activity?

    Should we say around 400- 450k mark where most of houses have multiple bidders?

    Or perhaps higher 450 to 500K?

    I think around 700 to 750k, houses are not getting many viewers. I may be wrong

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,568 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Those houses in Mayorstone were starting to take off just before COVID. That house is a brisk twenty minute walk from the city center. It actually a fairly decent sized house. That house was originally build 60-70 years ago.

    Present decor is not to everyone's taste and is outdated. But it's still.in fairly good nick. The back garden is South facing and it's got a Ber of D2. Basically you have to change the decor

    The one in Joseph's street is an anomaly, in good condition but not a great location e en though right in the city center

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Maybe some of the Twitter staff will move down to Limerick, they can afford it.... for now.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,586 ✭✭✭RINO87


    That isn't mayorstone tho - it Woodview, up passed LIT, so while still not that bad, it's a longer walk again to town.

    The place is littered with cars during term time. You are only a hop skip and a jump (over a fence) from areas with a few peoblems too. (Maybe that's not a thing anymore, about 5 years since I've been down that way.)

    Joseph street is a great location, in my opinion... especially if you would like to live car free. You have everything literally on your doorstep and it's a nice neighborhood too. Having a car there might be a bit of a hassle alright. That said, crazy money for that house...



This discussion has been closed.
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