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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,898 ✭✭✭Jizique


    A million likes, they need to decouple the price of wind from gas and then there might be much less opposition to wind from local communities - there is zero point being in favour of a wind farm as you will still pay the high price based on gas anyway, even if the wind power is "free" or at least has zero marginal cost.

    This can be done by providing developers with a risk free return of say, double the current Irish govt 10 year rate, so if the return on that is currently 3%, say the developments can earn an IRR of 6%.

    Under the current system, we are all being ridden rotten by the owners of the windfarms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I didn`t say they were supposed to shut last year. I said Tarbert is supposed to shut next year and Moneypoint in 2025, and we were fortunate green insanity hadn`t both shut last year as 21.5% of our electricity was provide by oil and coal.

    From Ryan last year saying we would be all fine and dandy with renewables and gas when in reality without both the use of coal and oil over tripling, we would have been in a complete mess, I have no faith in him not going for both Tarbert and Moneypoint being shut on those dates following his insane green ideology without anywhere near sufficient supply to fill the gap.

    Under this present offshore madness, gas, if we can even manage to get it with us having no storage or LNG terminals, will be around for a long time to come and if greens even vaguely understood the the word unviable they would see that is exactly what this offshore madness is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Cheers for that, but I would not see any reason to double the rate. The latest strike prices here for wind and solar rose by 33% over the last two years and are now the same as the U.K. strike price for nuclear



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    You are wrong to say the ESB plan would cost as much as the Hinkley. ESB is €83bn (your figures) for 30GW , Hinkley is over 50% more to 3.2GW. Taking capacity factor into account the ESB would be producing at least 10-12GW while Hinkley would be producing just 3GW

    Here's the timeline from 2005-2016 for Hinkley-C which won't be up and running by 2026. Nuclear has an insane leadtime compared to the 100MW hydrogen for Felixstowe project for 2026. Westinghouse are suing Korean Power. So that's another source of delay and cost increase.

    40 years ago the French and US could build power plants in a reasonable time. Of the 93 plants working in the US , 90 are over 30 years old. The other 3 started construction in the 1970s.

    Yes there are cheaper options than Hinkley. €83Bn (your figures) would get us an average of 10-12GW of wind.

    There is a finite supply of economic uranium ore. Even if nuclear continues to provide 3% of primary energy there's not enough for anther 60 years. An expansion would be worse. To double the supply of ore you have to double the extraction costs.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Denmark's Tunø Knob is 27 years old (build in 1994, commissioned in 1995) and still producing.https://www.vestas.com/en/products/offshore/offshore-solutions

    We've had lightships since 1732 so floating offshore platforms aren't new or unproven.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,732 ✭✭✭ginger22




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,244 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    The great green grift in the desert is in full swing:




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,898 ✭✭✭Jizique


    I meant double the return, the IRR, not double the absolute amount guaranteed. Off pension funds a 6% return on a 20 year project based on €40/MWH and expected load factors (they keep telling us costs are falling and the marginal cost is zero) so they should be all over this when 3% is all they can get on govt bonds.

    I certainly would not be guaranteeing twice the power price or anything like it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    20th Nov is the first game in the Qatar World Cup right?

    No doubt your environmental concerns will extend to the teams and fans travelling to that

    Or is it only a concern if those teams and fans display mention the environment in which case they shall feel the wrath of your faux concerns



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,244 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    What are you on about? That's totally incoherent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    So you are in favour of replacing coal power with solar power. Great. I don't know if you live in Europe but we have these things called "Winter" that happen at the end of each year and the start of a new one, and during which we need more energy than usual. How much energy will we get from all these "several GW's of solar" during the coldest days of winter?

    As to your sentence about Gas, Vladimir Putin approves, as it is precisely this sentiment (and moves to make Europe more reliant on Russian gas) that has enabled his genocide in Ukraine. Unless you are supporting the construction of LNG facilities in Ireland, and were doing so consistently over the past decade?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Even at €100/MWh it's still a lot cheaper than UK strike price for nuclear.

    Also it's for only 10 years and delays eat in to the 10 years. As I've said before if a renewable project was to be delayed by 3 years (not uncommon for nuclear) then the income stream would be one SEVENTH of the guaranteed 35 year stream for UK nuclear and that's if our scheme provides index linked guarantees.

    And yes our projects should be more like UK prices.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    I would have no issue with that. Qatar of all places.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The E.S.B. 30GW plan based on the U.K average rolling capacity would produce around 10 -12 GW, but that is not all for electricity supply. 50% is for green hydrogen production, so just 5 -6 GW is for direct electricity supply. Hinkley will by population size supply our needs and we also have 80% renewables nameplate capacity of our needs at present.

    I have already pointed out that on your figures of Hinkley being paid 150 Billion by year 35, even using your dubious imo costing for a sticking plaster and string job to keep those turbines going after their lifespan that did not include the cost of carrying out that work or the very real possibility of power electronics or even tower replacement making it more viable to just replace the complete unit, that by year 35 the equivalent of our population will have received and paid for their electricity from Hinkley for 150 Billion while we will have sunk, from this plan, at least that amount into construction costs alone.

    You continue to ignore that over a 40 year period the mean construction time for nuclear plants is 7.5 years, with some even recently constructed in less, but seeing as you wish to just stick with the U.K. and ignore averages why do we not take a look at a recent U.K. offshore wind farm operational since only 3 years ago. Hornsea 1.

    Construction cost 5 Billion for 1.2 GW. 4.17 Billion per Gigawatt. That would leave the E.S.B. plan costing 120 Billion just for the turbine Capex. Add your sticking plaster and string 12.5% refit and at year 35 CapEx alone is 135 Billion for turbines. Add the Capex for green hydrogen and storage and you are well in excess of the 150 Billion by a wide margin for construction costs alone. While Hinkley will have supplied and been paid for, by population size, the equivalent of our needs for 35 years,while we will have spent more on just construction costs with nothing paid back via electricity charges which will be at least double the price per unit as 50% of the electricity produced under the E.S.B. plan will be for hydrogen. There will also be a total refit before those 60 years lifespan of Hinkley costing at least another another 150 Billion. The 50 year refit is not going to work with another round of sticking plaster and string.

    The E.S.B. plan is unviable economic insanity.

    Uranium isn`t that particularly rare, so I would not lose ant sleep over it. It makes up 0.00018% of the Earth`s crust. For perspective tin makes up O.OOO22%. At present prices for Uranium it probably costs less to fuel Hinkley than it would cost for fossil fuel lubricants for the E.S.B. offshore turbine plan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    They are not, and from the strike price increasing for offshore by 33% in just 2 years their is no indication that they will, and offshore is not going to be cheaper.

    If our projects were more like the U.K. based on the recently opened Hornsea 1 the E.S.B. plan would cost €120 Billion for the offshore construction alone. In what universe is that economically viable for a country with Ireland`s population. It`s completely insane.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    But but we will be able to sell it when everyone is self sufficient on wind. 🤪



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Let's use your numbers 6GW direct and another 6GW of hydrogen which could yield 4.8GW of power 50% of the time based on a 40% round trip efficiency. So that covers our needs, a 3.2GE nuclear plant wouldn't.

    Capex for hydrogen storage ? The 30TWh Rough Gas Storage facility was closed to save £750m over ten years. You can get hydrolysers for £1.5/watt up and running by 2026.


    Here's nuclear power plant construction excluding Asia and Eastern Europe. Apart from the Egyptian ones the ones under construction are a LOT longer than 7.5 years.

    The fact that you have to go back 40 years to include the US and French rollouts to get a 7.5 year average says a lot. Neither country can build plants on time or on budget or remotely close to. The UK is by far the nearest country to us in terms of planning, costs, laws, civil service etc, Nuclear is a multi-generational project that can't avoid politics.


    ALL of the nuclear plants under construction worldwide except for some of those being built by India, Russian and Chinese are delayed.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Uranium isn`t that particularly rare, so I would not lose ant sleep over it.

    It's very easy to detect to. The big problem is the energy and wear and tear. Because most of the poorer reserves are in granite.

    The world’s power reactors, with combined capacity of about 400 GWe, require some 67,500 tonnes of uraniun

    Reserves at $130/Kg are 6,147,800 tonnes. enough for 91 years AT PRESENT DEMAND which is only 3% of global energy. The initial load for a reactors is about 3 times annual usage. If you were to double the number of reactors from 400 to 800 then there's less than 40 years left. Not enough to keep thm going for 60 years. And that only gets you 6% of global energy supply. The total recoverable identified resources to $260/kg U is 8.070 million tonnes. Doubing price only adds a 1/3 extra supply.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    But that would be only a temporary situation until something gets developed. We need a path to the end goal. Nuclear is that at the moment. Just a bit of fun information man did not invent the Nuclear reactor nature did there are interesting articles on it.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    But but but as you well Europe links energy price (no matter how it is produced) to the dearest generation fuel in given mix. Currently that's gas - the price of which has been inflated by (amongst other things) increased demand due to the unreliable nature of renewable energy sources and shutting down / restricting other forms of energy generation.

    So regardless of how much or how little "wind or other renewable energy sources" people gonna get skrewed with energy prices under the current setup

    We all know this so why the constant cheerleading?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    I think this is probably the best place to leave this ...




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    We presently have renewables nameplate capacity of 80% of our needs. Add that to your 3.2 nuclear and your home and dry..

    The fact that mean construction time for those 40 years was 7.5 years and that of the 441 constructed in that time 374 (85%), were constructed in 10 years or less is what it is.

    You keep coming up for timelines for nuclear plant construction, and I have given you the stats on construction times, so where are your construction time stats (as in operational ready) for this E.S.B. plan for offshore, green hydrogen and hydrogen storage ?

    Edit :

    Where are you getting this 150 Billion that Hinkley will be paid for the electricity it supplies over 35 years ?

    In 2017 when the contract for difference was agreed the figure was £81 Billion. In today`s terms that is £96 Billion not £150 Billion. In today`s money the offshore construction alone for the E.S.B. plan based on the U.K. average is €83 Billion. Based on Hornsea 1 it is €120 Billion.

    Are you not comparing apples with oranges and in today`s terms the E.S.B. plan is in reality even more horrendously expensive.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    From memory there hasn`t been that much active surveying to detect easily extracted deposits because there are 90 years known reserves. Plus enrich uranium from decommission nuclear weapons being used, as well as the sale price having dropped trough the floor after the Fukshima earthquake and subsequent tsunami damage.

    Even if it was more difficult and expensive to extract from more other earth crust sources (where as I said its percentage of the earth`s crust is not much lower at 0.00018% than tin at 0.00022%), or even sea-water, I would question if it would be any more expensive than a worldwide plan based on that of the E.S.B.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,732 ✭✭✭ginger22


    With that crowd we are always "doomed". They have to come up with something to keep the gravy train rolling.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Admit what? That night falls, wind blows at different speeds and the days are shorter in winter and longer in summer?

    Really?

    Ok then, I admit that night falls, wind blows at different speeds and the days are shorter in winter and longer in summer

    🤷‍♀️



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Temporary till something better ? Hinkley-C was supposed to produce power in 2017, it's now delayed to 2027 with guaranteed prices till at least 2062 whether or not something better comes along.

    It means in effect Drax continued to operate for 10 years to makeup the shortfall.

    And it will be soaking up funds for decades to come even if something better comes along.


    Arklow Bank Phase 2 is €2.5Bn for 800MW at aconservative 35% capacity factor that's 280MW average.

    11 times that is €27.5Bn and 3.08GW average ( ie a 3.2GW nuclear plant with an optimistic 96% capacity factor. )


    Hinkley Point C media team | May 12, 2016 "We don’t expect to use the additional 15% because we expect that Hinkley Point C will be on time and on budget at £18bn." Vs. The revised operating date for the site in Somerset is now June 2027 and total costs are estimated to be in the range of £25bn to £26bn. (€30Bn) - this is the cost to EDF, the cost of the wholesale electricity is multiples of that.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    3.2GW of nuclear won't cut it during the dark calm days when we'll up to 5GW not counting backup. What is your solution for them ?

    What is your solution for when half the nuclear plants are down ?

    Remember that both France and Japan had 50 reactors and lost most of their power for an extended period. Nuclear isn't reliable enough to use as baseload unless you have a whole heap of peaking plant ready to pick up the pieces. (French nuclear will be lucky to have 50% capacity factor this year, even after 10 years to get sort things out less than 10 of Japan's reactors have restarted, safety concerns etc.)


    We have 5GW / 80% nameplate and a grid that can only accommodate 75% renewables/interconnectors. And last month 47% of our power came from wind. So our grid could handle 95% non-synch and if we had 6.4GW of wind then we would have gotten 59.7% from wind.


    The recently announced Felixstowe 100MW hydrogen project will be up and running in 2026, well before Hinkley-C which was supposed to be ready in 2017.


    Again your stats on construction are meaningless as they go back to the big rollouts in the 1980's when the west could build reactors at a resonable pace once planing had been approved. The more recent ones are dominated by China and Russia (dashed line) and there's is no way we should buy from then for security of supply.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    As I've pointed out before Uranium is associated with Radium - https://www.epa.ie/environment-and-you/radon/radon-map/

    And gamma rays can be detected from Uranium, Thorium and Potassium from low flying aircraft. IIRC you could cover Ireland in a week.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/radiometric-survey

    Extraction from sea water usually requires a lot of plastics so I'm not totally sure it's remotely economic. Coal ash is a plausible source, maybe.

    Short version is that uranium will get more expensive in the future, especially if demand increases. And since nuclear is already more expensive than renewables (more so when you include interest rates on the huge loans) there is no point in mortgaging the future for it.

    Some metals like copper are only commercial because they are concentrated, others are only commercial because they are by products of commercial ores. Uranium reserves don't fall into either category.



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