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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Looks like people think the oil price might be heading up and obviously bi-products of oil also such as diesel and heating oil which would not help inflation. They could be wrong like.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    German factory orders miss expectations.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The universal charge was already there before being asked to pay for water. This is the kind of argument that gets my blood boiling how much more tax do you want hard working people to pay and how many more services are we going to lose? Years ago your tax covered all use on roads (no toll bridges), your bins, you didn't have to pay an additional tax after paying 8% stamp duty on your house. How much more have this cohort of people to take in a reduction in what they get from the state and with regards to how much comes out of their pocket.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,990 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    The real working class have to be milked to pay double "bonus" payments to dole lifers, and silly 200 euro sticking plasters for energy crisis.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    People should stop looking down their noses at people on social welfare, especially during the current cost of living crisis. I do wonder if anybody has any figures on how much so-called corporate welfare this state provides companies?

    I know from my own personal experience. The only way I can afford to keep working is because I still receive some social welfare despite working due to my pay being so low and since I have started, I have not seen any increase in my hourly rate.

    Personally, I find it ridiculous that we have allowed critical infrastructure such as electricity production and delivery as well as things such as water treatment and even telecommunications to be owned by private companies only interested in making as much profit as possible. These industries should be run for the benefit of society, not just a select few.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,990 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    No one is looking down on people who work, or receive social welfare for other reasons (illness, Carers, pension etc). The problem folks have is with wasters on it for life - not paying into the pot etc.

    Your point on crucial infrastructure is moot - the state owned companies own the gas and electricity networks for instance. Water is also a state owned company both from infrastructure and supply standpoint. I can't think of any industry of national importance that the distribution network is not owned by the state or a semistate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    HAP can pay €21,000 per year to a household in Dublin (1300+35% extension which was implemented over the summer).

    Dole would pay €9,984 on top of that.

    Ignoring any other benefits that would amount to €31,000 per year which is representative of a gross salary of €36,000 approximately. Therefore, if you are earning €36,000 per year you are minimum wage and should consider changing career to get higher wages or else stop working as the ever rising cost of living will push you, very soon, below the minimum wage.

    Considering the average wage is not that much higher than €36,000 I think it is quite clear that the trajectory of the last few years is unsustainable and the only way out of it will be a sharp correction in rents and housing costs in general. This almost seems inevitable and I think it is already starting to happen, but data showing a property market tumbling takes many months to come through so we won't see the start of the collapse until spring next year and then have suspicions confirmed later next year that in fact the property market is correcting. All because our government has pumped so much borrowed cash into property we will have a severe fallout to the impending global economic slowdown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,392 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    When telecom was run by the State (P&T), you had to wait nine months for a telephone line.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,392 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Mean earnings is for FT worker is about 50k, including irregular earnings



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    There's pros and cons to state/private. Definitely not a clear cut black and white type subject imo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Some positive news for European industry as the world's largest EV battery producer makes a $7 billion investment


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,518 ✭✭✭jmreire


    ...



  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭Cllr_Dermod_Fahy


    We're in the calm before the storm.

    Everyone is going to look back and say how it was obvious things were going to go sour, but once again, people put their fingers in their ears and pretend everything will be ok.

    March/April next year is going to be carnage I think. Companies are going to be announcing big layoffs. This is only a trickle at the moment.

    US Fed is saying people are going to feel pain, how chances of a soft landing have narrowed. UK is saying they're going into their longest ever recession. Whereas Ireland.....we seem to be told the big corps will carry us through unscathed despite those same corps operating in those other countries too that are forecasting bad times.

    On Friday, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report. In the report, the Fed believes that U.S. house prices have risen sharply in recent years due to ultra-low interest rates, but high house prices may fall sharply in the future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 595 ✭✭✭Fine Day


    Unfortunately I think you maybe right. Again bad management by governments to allow this to happen. They allowed the economy to go to a level where it is not sustainable. It just can't staying going like that. I prefer to see the eccomy tick along at a lower pace and not go out of control like it is now. It's all pure greed again and as always the working class individual will fare out the worst.



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    No normal country in the world pays that much to people not to work v average wage. When the next crash comes it will be self inflicted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭EO2019


    From Jan 2023 the Jobseekers payment is €220 A couple with two children would receive €450 per week. That’s €22984 plus a bonus week each year so €23434.

    The fuel allowance that they would qualify for is €924. Back to school clothing and footwear for 2 kids €520.

    Thats €24868. With the HAP you mentioned €21000. That’s €45868 net. (I just took HAP from above post I’ve no knowledge of this amount myself). So

    Take out the idea of being lazy etc and look at it from a practical standpoint. A family taking home €45868 plus medical card would have to seriously consider the advantages, costs and relative instability of taking a job with the rates as they are. It’s not always a case of not wanting to work plenty families would be worse off. ( I want to caveat that by saying I’m not on any social welfare or HAP myself).



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭Grueller


    That post hits the nail on the head. The question though is, how do you unwind that situation in any sort of an orderly fashion?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    How many hours per week can someone work without losing any if these handouts?

    As a top up eg -part time job



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    This is actually sickening, would make you wonder what is the point. Marx did say that the first stage to communism is socialism. When the working tax paying people become so demoralised due to this I think we may be well down the route of universal basic income for everybody, I don't care what anyone says or however the media paints it but universal basic income is communism.

    But isn't that directly out of the playbook of the WEF, oh wait I'm sounding like a crazy nutter consipiracist.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 364 ✭✭Xidu


    I know where’s my tax all gone to now!

    mid class is fucked becoz of this system

    i work 48 hours a week and get taxed so much so some people can put up their feet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    450e a week for 2 adults and 2 kids to survive off? Even if every basic utility was covered by the State that's still a pretty bleak existence.

    I'm not saying there's no need for reform or that there's no people completely milking the system.

    But its not like a life on the dole is something to aspire too. I'd much rather be paying my mortgage and have purpose in life and I think the vast majority of citizens are the same.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    That's where the extra few jobs during the week for cash in hand comes in. 100 a day for a few days a week along with all that and your well on the way to a happy existence with a holiday to Spain every year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Yeah maybe. Still wouldn't choose it for my life.

    I also don't think we'd have it any better if there was nobody on SW. The chimps we elect would waste it on something else.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Most are but a very large minority would be better off on the dole than working, including many who think it would not apply to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭lmimmfn


    There's another ~250 per month children's allowance also and double dole at Christmas



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭EO2019


    I agree but I think some people are stuck. I’m sure many people on welfare would much prefer to work and dole bashing does very little for their self esteem or mental health.

    Life is not straightforward and bills need to be paid. It can be very hard to let go of a guaranteed amount that means your family is fed, warm, sheltered and can afford all the basic's. It could mean initial extra costs of childcare, vehicle car, different clothes etc.

    There are plenty of people in low paid jobs and for whatever reason that is what suits them and where they will continue to work. If they earned €15 for 40 hours a week that’s €600. They’d take home €546 per week. They’d get €63.60 in working family payment so €609.60. You’d lose fuel allowance of €17.76 (divided over 52 weeks). So you go from €467.76 per week (€450 plus €17.76 fuel allowance is €467.76) to €609.60 a gain of €141.84. Out of this €141.84 you’d have a higher rent payment now you are working (HAP differential rent changes with income) and travel costs. So let’s say rent went up by €30 a week that brings your extra money down to €111.84 and €50 (diesel/bus/train) already your down to being €61.84 better off working 40 hours then not working. Could be leas if you rent is higher or costs of travelling to work. Could be less again if you’re on less than €15 per hour.

    It can’t be a them versus us problem. How can people the system be more equitable without leaving people who need to be on welfare for a time bereft or stuck in a cycle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Children's allowance is universal though, nothing to do with being on the dole?

    Renting on HAP sounds like a living hell to me. Or living in hotel rooms. I feel genuinely sorry for anyone who thinks that's the way to live your life.

    If I thought it seemed like a better life than working and paying my mortgage I'd avail of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭EO2019


    Just to add in context of this thread I was having this exact conversation as breakdown with my sister yesterday evening. She has a small restaurant that is struggling to find staff. Due to costs and seasonal footfall she’s only open for Dinner 5 days a week (closed Monday and Tuesday). She pays €15 an hour to wait staff for up to 40 hours a week hence my calculations above.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Business paying reasonable wages could move the dial as well. I'm not a communist but people in hospitality etc are worked like dogs and paid pretty poorly for it.



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