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2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

245

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    That's fair enough, but the Dems have spent about 50 million elevating election deniers because they feel they are easier to beat, so I don't blame Joe Bloggs for not taking the Dems to serious when it comes to "democracy on the ballot" attack line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Does Joe Bloggs even know about that stuff though?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I think due to Trump, many would have family, co-workers or whatnot who have flourished their "stop the steal" badges or red hats like religious iconography. It has become a loud point of antagonism. I daresay many would be well familiar with the election denial, it's simply a question as to whether it trumps (pardon the pun) more bread and butter issues.

    Post edited by pixelburp on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Who knows, but to be fair it's been something the likes of Tapper of CNN has gone apeshit over and rightfully so.

    I don't know if they boosted Lake in Arizona, but if they have oh dear oh dear.

    Anyway New York governor race has got some attention recently, as Nate Silver pointed out the GOP would have preferred a much more complacent NY dem voting base so their man could sneak in, that seems unlikely with so much focus on it.

    Trump showed last night by going after RDS 3 days before he is up for reelection that he is totally incapable of message discipline. I assume De Santis is fuming privately, he is also sitting on a huge war chest which he hasn't need to use himself, very interesting to see if he has the balls to face Trump now.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,494 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    There is a coordinated campaign to install GOP election deniers at every level in the system - this is a fact. Sure the Dems were stupid to fund some candidates during the primary season, but it doesn't change the face the GOP are systematically installing people to help cause confusion over any election that they don't win.




    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Definitely worth pulling out a pertinent headline from that: 291 GOP Candidates in the midterms Deny or Question the 2020 results. It's just dangerous, and no amount of glib attempts to pitch Biden's commentary about it as melodramatic or alarmist can paper over the attempts by GOP to indulge an anti-democratic base within the party.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Ignoring the fact that it's just plain weird that the owner of Twitter to be explicitly calling for people to vote for a particular party, shared power means that nothing at all will get done for the next 2 years. As well as that:

    A Republican House means:

    • Kevin McCarthy selling his soul to the Freedom Caucus in order to be become Speaker
    • They'll be impeaching Biden over an, as yet to be decided, crime just to keep Trump happy
    • Holding the country hostage over raising the Debt Ceiling
    • Blocking aid to Ukraine

    A Republican Senate means:

    • If a Supreme Court opening comes up they'll find some new excuse not to hold hearings
    • Blocking all sorts of lower court judges




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,915 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    They just have to be more credible than the Democrats, that's all,they don't have to be good or capable.


    The Democrats stopped listening and turned inwards. That's all well and good until election time and the people you talk at decide you should have talked with them.

    It's a large chunk of their own base they are pushing away.


    Who doubts that they'll learn nothing, double down and lose more life long voters in 24.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,494 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    In what way are the GOP "more credible" than the Democrats. Their entire platform seems to be to tell the same lie so often it becomes the truth.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The GOP are just as guilty of ideological insularity: more so IMO. Their public persona is now deeply embedded within both Trumpism, and the extreme positions over pronouns, trans/bathrooms and of course, the ever-fresh outrage over abortion.

    They're superficially the party of fiscal responsibility, but in reality we're light-years from both "tax and spend" Democrats and the part of Eisenhower. Ignoring the social-politics they seem keen to dismantle worker protections via the "right to work smokescreen", than attempt to arrest spending in the traditional mould. And with the Duopoly the way it's set up, and a voter-base constantly riled up about Outrage X, all you can ever expect to see is a pendulum swing with each election cycle.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Anyone care for some Predictions?


    Senate (pick one or the other for each)

    1. Pennsylvania
    2. Georgia
    3. Nevada

    House (pick the range)

    • Democrats gain seats (or stay the same)
    • Republicans gain 1-20 seats
    • Republicans gain 20-35 seats
    • Republicans gain 35-50 seats
    • Republicans gain 51+ seats



    I'll go with:

    Oz in PA

    Warnock (but only after a run-off) in GA

    Cortez-Masto in NV

    Republicans gain 20-35 house seats.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    The Democrats failure to push thru Voting Rights reforms predictably coming home to roost. If the last year can't energise their base to get out and vote, nothing will.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Do we know how good/bad the Postal and Early Voting has been going? IIRC that was a bit of a critical slice of Biden's win back in 2020 - and of course the subject of the GOP's histrionics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I don't think voting rights issues are going to be what cost the Democrats this election. The danger is though that people will get elected this week who will ensure that it really is a decisive issue come 2024. Doug Mastriano getting elected Governor in PA or Carrie Lake getting elected Governor in AZ spring to mind.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Also worth mentioning that it sounds like TRump is gearing-up to announce his candidacy, but presumably will depend on how the results go:

    “Not to detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical election… I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,”

    That or he's trying his hand at running a casino again, lol.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    It's an issue when the GOP has successfully decreased the number of competitive districts. NC being the gold standard for that. 50/50 split statewide, 11-3 split for House seats.

    It's only going to be worse from here



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,494 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    That’s not what’s costing them- inflation, petrol prices and GOP lies about their cause is. The base will vote, the swing voters will go GOP, it’s nothing unusual for the mid terms.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Ah Gerrymandering. Yeah that's a vital issue for sure but the Democrats didn't have the number of Senators to make any laws against it (without getting Republican support - good luck with that). Manchin was never going to vote to break the filibuster and they have literally no leverage over him given that his state was Trump +40 in the last election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    That's a failure of politicking tho. If they could get the BBB bill passed, something pretty apolitical ( or should be) as Voting Rights should not be insurmountable. Particularly after Jan 6.

    Genuinely think it was the last best chance to save the Republic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,877 ✭✭✭growleaves


    @Brussels Sprout 'Ignoring the fact that it's just plain weird that the owner of Twitter to be explicitly calling for people to vote for a particular party'

    Why is it plain weird?

    Nobody believes that any of these Big Tech companies are functionally neutral in the first place. There is a very thin pretence that they are 'private companies' operating on a standard profit and loss model.

    They are (deniably) involved in every election of the last decade anyway.

    Now the fig leaf of supposedly not favouring one side over another is simply dropped altogether.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    They didn't get BBB passed. Manchin & Sinema torpedoed it. They ended up coming up with the Inflation Reduction Act a year later which was basically a watered down version of BBB. The crucial thing though is they could have passed either of those bills with a simple majority (or 50 votes + the VP in this case) due to the nature of the bill .

    They couldn't do that with voting reform, Puerto Rico as a 51st state, reproductive rights or any other bills like that. All of those would require getting rid of the filibuster which Manchin flat out refused to do (Kyrsten Sinema wasn't going to do it either but give her state they might have been able to twist her arm).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Voting reform would not have required breaking the filibuster. They had the energy and moral high ground after Jan 6, and squandered it. A spectacular failure, and baffling. From a purely political stand point, voting reform would benefit the Dems massively, likely securing them Congressional control for the foreseeable future.

    It should've been the singular focus for them. The viability of all their other legislative goals flows from there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Dems will be grateful for the filibuster if the senate goes against them as the next cycle is pretty brutal also tbf.

    Looking at the senate later, Oz probably crawls over the line mainly due to how poorly Fetterman is finishing the campaign , Georgia goes to a run off, Vance should be fine and CCM and Hasan barely hold on. Hasan incredibly fortunate that the GOP picked a dud because she was so vulnerable this time round.

    Arizona very hard to call, Kelly is strong in the state has spent a lot, but it's a still a purple state and if Lake and the GOP have a good night then he is very vulnerable. Betting sites have them very close, gun to head Kelly but with no confidence at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    The Senate could pass a parliamentary rule change to add voting legislation to the list of items that only require a simple majority. Likely to end up at the Supreme Court, but then they'd just be back where they started, having actually tried something.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,344 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    They tried that but Manchin & Sinema wouldn't go for it.

    Democrats then attempted to change the rules to exempt the bill from the filibuster, but Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema opposed the change.

    link



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,915 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The Democrats have even had their own think tanks call out the party for not focusing on the economy and inflation.


    That will cost them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,618 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    Guam looking like a republican win for the first time in 36 years.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,315 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    The filibuster is a parliamentary procedure which the Constitution explicitly delegates to the Houses of Congress to decide themselves. Unlikely the Supreme Court would intervene in the filibuster.



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