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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Short version is everything will be more expensive in the future and there is nothing to indicate that the price of uranium will be prohibitively expensive in 54 years time after we have burned through 3 reincarnations of the E.S.B. plan while a nuclear plant would still be operating at 90% plus of it`s capacity.

    The latest strike price for onshore here is the same as U.K. nuclear. Expecting offshore to be cheaper than onshore is pie in the sky.

    And on what planet would the interest rate repayments be less for a nuclear plant over it`s 60 plus lifetime than the interest repayments on the cost of this E.S.B. plan over the same 60 years ?

    You are correct in that there is no point in mortgaging the future without knowing what we are committing to. Especially when it comes to none of those proposing we take on this mortgage not being able to put a figure on the cost let alone what the mortgage repayments would be..



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    By the end of the decade and given the timetables involved it's going to have to be utra-supercritcal coal generation to keep the lights on in Ireland to 2050. Unless current policy is reformed, system reliability and security will begin to fall and consumer prices will continue to rise quickly. Never mind the technical deficiencies of unreliable sources of electricity generation, the economics will dictate the outcome. The price of energy is what we pay for consuming it.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 82,823 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    What if this is what happened and that’s why the pyramids exist we were dropping ourselves off for a fresh start where we wouldn’t **** things up again - sort of like battlestar galacticas weird ending. Spoiler warning



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    So now Hinkley is to blame for Drax as well!

    Drax is a complete clusterfcuk of a green energy company being taken at their word as to what they could provide using waste timber but are cutting down virgin forest to do that. The only people to blame are those who without doing their due diligence just took a green energy company at their word. If there is anything to be learned here from Drax is that before a single cent is spent on this E.S.B. play the costings and timeline should be clear to everyone rather than the smoke and mirrors we are getting.

    .... on that point I have asked you as to where you got this 150 Billion for the cost of the electricity that Hinkley would supply ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I am only going with Hinkley as it is your preferred choice to show that nuclear is uneconomical compared to the E.S.B. plan. Another poster has already pointed out that we could have 14 reactors that would give us over 3 times our needs for just the CapEx on offshore turbines alone for €83 Billion. Based on Hornsea 1, closer to 5 times our needs. Easy enough to tailor to our needs or even more than our needs for sale through those interconnectors,rather than the one way street future the greens have planned for us.

    What is the problem with the Chinese building nuclear plants here ? We are buying our solar panels from them now, plus lots of other green tech requirements, and I doubt greens are going to be shouting for their E.V.s to be banned here either as they predicted to become the world leader in E.V. production. Same as they are now with solar, so why should they be persona non grata for nuclear ?

    The South Koreans also appear pretty proficient in that field, and the Japanese who are getting back into nuclear the same.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Something both Japan and India showed the were well aware off when one refused to sign COP27 and the other refused to do until the wording on coal was change.

    Also something that green supporters are refusing to recognise with China and coal. U.S.A. will also be worth watching on coal, especially if these mid-terms go the way of the Republicans.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Short version Financial Times 4 Sept 2016 article here - £100Bn https://www.ft.com/content/9a8ecc04-703a-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907


    Long version Strike price is £92.50/MWh in 2012 value. Index linked to CPI for 35 years from start of commercial operation. So locked in from 2027 - 2062 unless the plant gets delayed yet again.

    £92.50 in 2012 is £11,918 in Sept 2022 = €135.82 (so 40% above the €97 massive cost increase in renewables here, which were twice the UK price)

    Hinkley is rated at 3200MWh so 3,2000 x €135.82 = € 434,624 per hour

    €10,430,976 a day

    €3,809,913,984 a year (Compare this to the originally advertised price of €3.3bn to build an EPR)

    €133,346,989,440 for 35 years.

    This will depend on capacity factor and £3/MWh depending on whether Sizewell C gets ordered. So it should be a few % below this. The UK suggest that Sizewell-C should be £30Bn cheaper, but that would still be an insane price.


    Again Arklow Bank Phase 2 is €2.5Bn for 800MW at a conservative 35% capacity factor that's 280MW average.

    11 times that is €27.5Bn and 3.08GW average ( ie a 3.2GW nuclear plant with an optimistic 96% capacity factor. )

    We have enough sandbanks off the east and south east coast for those wind farms. We can so that while waiting for floating turbines to become cheaper.


    Again if Hinkley had been up and running in 2017 then there would be 3GW of baseload not needed from Drax. This is why it will be at least 2037 before Hinkley-C will be carbon neutral on the backup power used during delays. And later again to cover the carbon used in the steel, concrete, construction and ore mining and processing.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A short interview with Eamonn Ryan in which he makes the following points

    • Offshore wind auctions to commence before the end of the year
    • This years auctions will be primarily off the East coast (one project off the west coast)
    • Next year and future auctions will be primarily off the southern and west coasts
    • 700MW new solar and wind built in the last year
    • Announcement due soon on the replacement developer for Equinor for Moneypoint offshore project. Several have approached ESB and the ESB are assessing their options




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Upon direction from Fianna Fail Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien further efforts being taken to try improve our water quality. This time councils are hiring additional staff to perform farm inspections. Inspection rates are also to increase from 5% per year to 10% per year

    The spokesman added that if enforcement is taken, measures can range from verbal instruction to being served written notice under the Local Government (Water Pollution) Act to carry out works to control pollution. 

    In some cases, individuals may also be reported to the Department of Agriculture. 

    According to Donegal County Council, inspections there will focus primarily on farmyards and will concern slurry storage, silage pits, manure pits and minimisation of soiled water.

    O'Brien seems to be leading the charge on the water quality issue

    Addressing the matter in the Dáil in March, Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien said his department was working with local authorities and the EPA to develop a “strengthened risk-based local authority-led National Agricultural Inspection Programme”.

    In the meantime, he said “enhanced interim measures” would be introduced in the form of funding for private farm inspectors.

    The new programme will be detailed in the third iteration of the River Basin Management Plan which will be published in the coming weeks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,237 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    The biggest existential threat to humanity right now is António Guterres



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    As I said to you Drax, is a complete and utter clusterfcuk green initiative. Attempting to excuse it on the basis of nuclear is no different than attempting to blame the price of eggs on nuclear.

    Even shorter version of your post, For Hinkley the strike price only comes into operation when the plant does, but from what I can see your 150 Billion for the cost of the electricity that Hinkley will provide in 35 years index linked is 150 Billion if Hinkley began operations today.

    If that is correct then comparing the cost of Hinkley based on index linking in 35 years time leaves this E.S.B. plan even more idiotic financially. Based on either the the average offshore cost of 83 Billion or the Hornsea 1 price of 120 Billion for just terminal CapEx alone, both those are at today`s prices. Not what they will be index linked after 35 years.

    Again on the price of eggs, what has Arklow Bank to do with the cost of the E.S.B. plan for 30GW offshore and the associated costs of hydrogen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Anyone who claims that Uranium costs are a significant portion of the nuclear electricity price is either being disingenuous or has no idea what they are talking about. Estimates vary but most sources agree that unprocessed Uranium accounts for only half the cost of fuel, which in turn accounts for only a small portion of operating costs, which in turn only accounts for a small proportion of final energy costs, as the majority of overall cost comes from capital expenditure. According to Stanford researcher Kalvin Wang:

    Capital cost - the cost of constructing and engineering the plant - represents a large percentage of the cost of nuclear energy. The US Energy Information Administration estimated that for new nuclear plants to go into service in 2019, capital costs will make up 74% of the cost of electricity; higher than the capital percentages for fossil-fuel power plants - 63% for coal and 22% for natural gas, but lower than the capital percentages for other renewable sources - 80% for wind and 88% for solar PV.

    ...

    Generally, coal and nuclear plants have similar operational cost compositions - operational and maintenance costs plus fuel costs. However, nuclear plants have lower fuel costs and higher operating and maintenance costs. The main operating cost of nuclear power plants comes to the cost of its fuel: uranium. Fuel costs account for approximately 28% of a nuclear plant's operating expenses. [6] And while uranium itself is not incredibly expensive, it has to be enriched and fabricated before it can be used in a nuclear power plant. Thus, as of 2013, half the cost of reactor fuel was taken up by enrichment and fabrication, amounting to 14% of operating costs. [7]. However even then, nuclear power plants have lower fuel costs than other types of plants: in the US in 2014, fuel costs for nuclear power plants were $.0077/kWh and only 21% of the variable cost of production, compared to $.0294/kWh for fossil steam plants (75% of variable costs) and $.0371/kWh for gas turbine (87%). [1]

    The World Nuclear Association is even more direct on the topic of increases in Uranium pricing and the effect it might have on the final retail cost of electricity:

    Doubling the uranium price (say from $25 to $50 per lb U3O8) takes the fuel cost up from 0.50 to 0.62 ¢/kWh, an increase of one-quarter, and the expected cost of generation of the best US plants from 1.3 ¢/kWh to 1.42 ¢/kWh (an increase of almost 10%). So while there is some impact, it is minor, especially in comparison with the impact of gas prices on the economics of gas generating plants. In these, 90% of the marginal costs can be fuel. Only if uranium prices rise to above $100 per lb U3O8 ($260/kgU), and stay there for a prolonged period (which seems very unlikely), will the impact on nuclear generating costs be considerable.

    I want to press this point: Is the environmental movement in Europe still shilling for gas as a "transition fuel" after the events of February 2022? Europe, especially Ukrainians and Russia's other neighbours, are entitled to answers!

    And if so, why?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




    I'm not excusing Drax. But it could have been closed down if the UK had been able to roll out nuclear power on time or had spent the money on renewables instead.

    UK inflation is currently at 10% but the strike price for Hinkley C is index linked from 2012 to the end of the 35 year period which is looking like 2062 at the earliest. And this for a UK nuclear power project that started in 2004.


    I expect offshore wind costs to keep coming down in real terms due to economies of scale and lessons learned , for example

    Hornsea-1 had a strike price of 140.00£/MWh (2012) now 164.96£/MWh

    Hornsea-2 had a strike price of £57.50/MHw €63.31/MHw

    Hornsea-3 strike price is £37.35 (2012)

    All for 15 years of a 25 year lifespan. Notice how the price dropped to near a quarter, while the EPR's in France and Finland quadrupled in price ?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You'd have to ask the spokesperson for the European environmental movement



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So if the cost of uranium is incidental, why didn't the UK government just buy reactors at £4.7Bn odd each back when they could get bonds at 2% interest ?


    Financial Times 4 Sept 2016 article here - £100Bn https://www.ft.com/content/9a8ecc04-703a-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907 or £160Bn if inflation hit 2% (it's now over 10%)



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    May keep the TV/Radio off for the next week or so, as we prepare to be beaten about the head daily with Climate Armageddon.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,244 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    These UN busybodies screeching about impending "doom" and that time is running out are comical.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    You seemed to be speaking for a very broad range of people when you said:

    Gas is widely acknowledged by all concerned as being useful during the transition so its planned to remain as part of the grid while we transition

    So I am asking you: who? Who still (after February 2022) thinks that Europe should keep using gas during "transition?" The same people who thought Nord Stream 2 was a good idea? The same people that have led Europe to the brink of catastrophe by keeping us reliant on Russia? What do you think Ukrainians think of Europe's gas-driven "energy transition?"

    It's not a question of "if" it's a fact. The cost of Uranium is incidental, it makes up only a small portion of nuclear energy costs. On an unrelated matter, I can't speak to the thought process of the UK government, you'd need to ask them.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So I am asking you: who?

    Who still (after February 2022) thinks that Europe should keep using gas during "transition?"

    Afaik, most EU govt, though several have already adjusted their climate action plans to rapidly move to 100% renewable by 2030. There's 4 that I posted about recently. As for the rest, you'll have to wait for their CAP updates to see how they are maintaining or changing their plans.

    What do you think Ukrainians think of Europe's gas-driven "energy transition?"

    Haven't asked



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    It's worse that that, the UN is not giving full attention to its brief. The Ukraine war should be front and center of the UNs attention, that damn war is expanding. Very likely president Putin is going to get pulled down sometime between this November and next April, the Russian equivalent to the American neocons seize power, they ain't trading with the West. There is destabilisation of European countries underway triggered by a combination of problems, lack of affordable energy, lack of affordable accommodation, and as this progresses it will become a lack of affordable food for more people. At the root of this crisis is Europes energy policy and the technocrats obsession with climate policies supported by the UN, they see this energy shortage as an opportunity to further their cause, remember their stated intention has always been to price fossil fuel out of the reach of most people. Now they have their wish granted, but it's not what they expected.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Ye see this is what bugs me.

    Not pedestrianising Dublin, should be more of it, the snide little remarks about people “deciding to live in the middle of nowhere” I mean imagine the cheek of these people not wanting to live in cities and towns and preferring to live where they grew up close to family and strong links to community. There always seems to be a little demeaning comment from the green side towards rural Ireland, check above!

    And that is why the Green Party gain little attraction in rural Ireland, it’s because if this holier than thou attitude to rural Ireland and the people living there. With these attitudes is it any wonder rural Ireland feels under attack from these?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    having decided to live in the middle of nowhere

    Now do travellers deciding to live wherever they like,

    and also immigrants deciding to live in Ireland.

    Not a hope you would I'd wager.

    it's clear from comments like those that greens living in urban areas and cities have utter contempt for Irish people living in villages and countryside. Contempt for having the audacity to live there unless you're an organic farmer of course.



  • Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Marcos


    From people who fly around in private jets, have multiple properties and cars. All telling you and me that we have to eat Bill Gates fake meat while they are not affected at all.

    When most of us say "social justice" we mean equality under the law opposition to prejudice, discrimination and equal opportunities for all. When Social Justice Activists say "social justice" they mean an emphasis on group identity over the rights of the individual, a rejection of social liberalism, and the assumption that unequal outcomes are always evidence of structural inequalities.

    Andrew Doyle, The New Puritans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,732 ✭✭✭ginger22


    Latest proposal to wind down farming in Ireland.

    Why dont we close down every other industry while we are at it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,204 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    you kind of went off on one there lol, wtf are you talking about travellers and immigrants for? I was talking about rural Ireland moaning because of pedestrianisation in Dublin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    You were the one saying Irish people decided to live in the middle of nowhere

    If open borders were abolished and state of the art halting sites were built in Dalkey, Blackrock and Killiney then more people could actually afford to live in Dublin, wouldn't you agree?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,204 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    did you not choose to live where you do? not really understanding what you're trying to do with the traveller angle here



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I doubt anybody does not get that you have an intense dislike of nuclear, but is there really any need for all the hyperbole and financial gymnastics.

    Drax "The U.K`s largest source of renewable energy" is a multi billion green washing scam that is not even confined to the U.K.

    On Hinkley, a pet nuclear dislike of yours, you have taken a contract for difference price that would in today`s money cost 81 Bn. for electricity for the next 35 years and using index linking come up with 150 Bn attempting to show that the E.S.B. plan makes some kind of economic sense.

    If you do the same with even the lowest estimated price for just the offshore turbine part of that plan alone, then that is even more than the price the U.K. will have paid for their Hinkley supply of electricity for 35 years. The only way the E.S.B. plan would make any financial sense is if it provided us with free electricity for 35 years and investors wrote off all the costs related to the the production and storage of hydrogen.

    This E.S.B. plan is not just a financial fallacy, financially it is completely bonkers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    You typify the thinking of many current Dublin centric Greens.

    There are many living in rural Ireland because that's where they were born & reared, where they have dwellings, farms and businesses etc.

    In our case, grew up in Dublin but live rural now. Partly out of choice but more particularly that we couldn't afford to purchase a house near where we grew up. We needed to move to a point outside Dublin where modest house prices were affordable. And that wasn't yesterday, the issue of property costs v earnings of young people has been running for many decades.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,204 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Grand yeah I just don't want to hear people moaning on the radio about taking parking spaces from Capel Street an attack on rural Ireland.

    I know plenty of people who moved to rural Ireland because they wanted a bigger house for their kids and didn't want to live in whatever areas they could afford to live in in Dublin, so it's a choice for many.



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