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US Midterms 2022 - Read OP before posting

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    #452
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852032#Comment_119852032

    More importantly it has been a rejection of Trump , the GOP can get behind a serious candidate now



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    #453
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    This was a disappointing night for the Republicans.

    Not the wave that pollsters anticipated. More of a puddle, if anything.

    That said, this is by no means a disastrous night for the Republicans. Disappointing yes, but not disastrous. Republicans are likely to hold the house, and maybe - just maybe - hold the senate. But it's a close call. If anything, the midterms were a referendum on Trumpism itself, just as much as they were a referendum on Biden's performance to date.

    Trumpism has been widely discredited in this election. Trump-backed candidates performed worse than non-Trump backed candidates. Spinning the conspiracy theory of stolen elections was never going to go down well across the country as a whole. There'll be many in the Trump camp worried about tonight's results and the prospects for Trump going forward. They'll know his days are numbered.

    This paves the way for DeSantis. DeSantis should capitalise on this moment and announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidency, before Trump's announcement next Tuesday. This may put pressure on Trump to back down, and maybe even back DeSantis himself. That would unify the Republican party. And ultimately, I think that's what matters here. Long-term, DeSantis can defeat Biden at the next election.

    However, Trump may not decide to play that card, instead making the politically narcissistic act of throwing his hat in the ring for the presidency. That would deepen the schism in the Republican party, and pave the way for a Democrat victory in 2024.

    Trump should do the right thing and step down from front-line politics. It's time for DeSantis to take the reigns.



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    #454
    Tippex
    Registered Users Posts: 2,918 ✭✭✭Tippex


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852445#Comment_119852445

    According to nyt the urban areas still have a lot of votes to be counted (maricopa, pinal and pima) (less than 70% counted) whereas others are well over 80% some over 90% counted.



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    #455
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852445#Comment_119852445

    Most of the districts where Lake is leading are much closer to being complete than the others.

    The two big ones - Maricopa & Pima counties (Phoenix and Tucson) , which are the vast majority of the total vote are only ~65% complete and Hobbs is well ahead in both and would be expected to stay that way..

    As they finish counting the gap will grow.



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    #456
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852554#Comment_119852554

    If Lake loses, she'll play the stolen election card. She has already hinted at it.

    Lake is utterly toxic.



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    #457
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852423#Comment_119852423

    Totally agree about Walker - Just proves that the candidate almost doesn't matter anymore it's just RED vs. BLUE.

    As for Vance , I'd disagree insofar as he's a snake who will do/say whatever he thinks will be best for him.

    Having said that , his snakeiness means that he doesn't really hold to any particular ideology but he'll still make the populist choice for his personal gain every time.



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    #458
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852537#Comment_119852537

    Extremely wishful thinking that Trump would "do the right thing" I'm afraid.

    Donald Trump couldn't give a damn about anyone or anything other than himself - He couldn't care less if the GOP win or lose if it doesn't directly benefit him.

    Trump will declare his intention to run simply because he thinks it will give him protection from prosecution or conviction , simple as that.

    There is not a chance in hell that Trump steps aside and/or backs someone other than himself - The only way that happens is if he got convicted before then and he tells his MAGA bots to vote for DeSantis - which will only happen if DeSantis commits to giving him a full pardon if he got Elected.

    Any decision Trump makes will be all about what's in it for him.



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    #459
    Cody montana
    Registered Users Posts: 5,324 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852537#Comment_119852537

    You weren’t saying that a few hours ago.



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    #460
    RickBlaine
    Registered Users Posts: 461 ✭✭RickBlaine


    Trump loosing the Republican primary to DeSantis and then claiming voter fraud would be hilarious!



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    #461
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852627#Comment_119852627

    As my post said, the pollsters were wrong.

    But the undercurrent to my earlier point stands - namely, spending all the time in the world calling Republicans, National Socialists, is counterproductive. It's also false, but let's not let facts get in the way here.

    But DeSantis's outstanding victory in Florida establishes the principle that combating Woke ideology is an election winner:

    https://twitter.com/danwootton/status/1590189429028966401




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    #462
    Sudden Valley
    Registered Users Posts: 4,103 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852537#Comment_119852537

    Don't think it was just Trump. I think the abortion issue being on some of the ballots didnt help them either. I wonder if Desantis would step aside if Trump runs.



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    #463
    Boggles
    Registered Users Posts: 40,230 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852537#Comment_119852537

    Nah. No glossing over this clusterfúck, numerically and historically they fúcked it.

    The rate of inflation alone should have handed them a major win.

    This is the catalyst for further damaging fragmentation. No way Trump doesn't run.

    The lunacy division and conspiracy theories as evidenced has reached it's shelf life, but will continue unabated until the required amount of people switch it off.



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    #464
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852647#Comment_119852647

    I think it works in Florida, whether that translates to the rest of the country remains to be seen.

    In general with lots of things going for them in this election , the GOP have done terribly - They have focused on entirely the wrong things and are clearly out of sync with a very large chunk of the US voters.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852654#Comment_119852654

    Trump running definitely presents a huge problem for DeSantis.

    He'd likely be a far better candidate for the GOP in the actual election (relatively speaking) , but he might really struggle to get past the primaries against Trump - Who has proven yet again that he is toxic at the national level.

    Even if he were to beat Trump in the primaries , there's no way Trump goes quietly and he'd probably hurl from the ditch and make life difficult for DeSantis because the one thing that is absolutely certain is that Donald Trump is NOT a team player.



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    #465
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,991 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852262#Comment_119852262

    As a proud MAGA/Trump supporter, I would now - while I'd love to see the Don in the white house again - have to accept that De Santis is the better bet. Any Red in the white house is better than a win for the democrats. Therefore I hope that Trump backs desantis instead of running himself.

    Don't get me wrong, I'd still back Trump in the primaries etc but if Desantis won out as the GOP candidate it may not be the worst thing.



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    #466
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852687#Comment_119852687

    Agreed - At best the DeSantis win is a bit of a silver lining to what has been a disastrous Election for the GOP.

    With all the prevailing conditions , this should have been a blow-out victory for them , instead it looks like they might just about barely sneak control of the House and the Senate will remain in Democrat control.

    The GOP will have to learn that they need actual policies and plans for people to vote for them and not just constant horror stories and scare tactics.



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    #467
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,435 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852714#Comment_119852714

    Why would trump back any other candidate? It's admitting that he isn't the best



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    #468
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,991 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852748#Comment_119852748

    I agree. But I'm saying what's best for the GOP as opposed to what's best for Trump. Ideal world scenario, you know?

    What I think will happen is Desantis and Trump will both declare, there will be a competiitive primary and I don't know who wins



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    #469
    Will_I_Amnt
    Registered Users Posts: 256 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852748#Comment_119852748

    No. By christening him Ron De-Sanctimonious, Trump has already positioned himself as someone who can't ever back him!



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    #470
    Boggles
    Registered Users Posts: 40,230 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Trump doing what is not best for Trump. 😂



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    #471
    Patrick2010
    Registered Users Posts: 3,283 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Disastrous election for Trump but I bet he'll still announce he's running in 2024. Will be interesting to see who the GOP is more afraid of, Trump or losing the next election when it comes to selection time.

    "On the day of the 2022 general election, Donald Trump sent a very clear 2024 message to Ron DeSantis: Stay out of the race or else.

    “I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News Digital.

    (Trump, a Florida resident, did say Tuesday that he had voted for DeSantis for another term as governor.)

    Trump’s rhetoric is the most open threat he has made against DeSantis in recent weeks. At a rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend, Trump referred to DeSantis as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”



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    #472
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,478 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    Walker vs. Warnock decided yet? If there's any candidate that deserves to lose it's Walker. He doesn't belong near political office or toys unsuitable for children under 18 months. Giving him a Kinder Egg could be considered an assassination attempt.



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    #473
    RickBlaine
    Registered Users Posts: 461 ✭✭RickBlaine


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852554#Comment_119852554

    I hope you're right. When I looked at the numbers a few hours ago, Hobbs was about 35,000 ahead and now she is about 29,900 ahead.



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    #474
    Giuliana Wrong Rite
    Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Giuliana Wrong Rite


    Republicans are usually very good as coalescing around a candidate or issue (Immigration, crime, CRT, anti-trans, etc) but for the first time in a long time I think there's a serious divide in the party.

    It'll be interesting to see how many elected Trumpites continue to follow him and how many may now think it's safe to abandon ship.

    Interesting times ahead for the GOP and I cannot wait to watch it unfold.



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    #475
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,425 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852713#Comment_119852713

    Turnout seems to have been very high in this election and it seems to have favoured the Democrats mostly. I'm guessing the SCOTUS attacks on reproductive rights motivated an awful lot of Democrat voters to turn out who would otherwise have stayed at home, and also suppressed some GOP voters who are maybe beginning to question if they're actually the baddies after all



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    #476
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852431#Comment_119852431

    I presume he means that the results are within the margin of error of the polls. He (rightly) has a particular bee in his bonnet about people loudly proclaiming the polls(ters) were wrong when the result is in fact perfectly plausible. e.g. polls said Trump had a solid 30-odd % chance of winning. Things with a 30% chance of happening happen all the time...

    Polls are not perfectly predictive and people forget that all to readily.



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    #477
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,425 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852763#Comment_119852763

    Trump wouldn't care about that, by the time 2024 comes around, Trump could be in all kinds of legal trouble and he may need someone to pardon him, he'd back DeSantis if it benefited him, and make up some bullsh1t about how the democrats and the 'failing New York Times' are persecuting him and he will help lead DeSantis to victory for the good of America



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    #478
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852822#Comment_119852822

    The only way Trump backs DeSantis (or anyone else for that matter) is if he is personally unable to run because he'd been convicted at the Federal level.

    And like you say his support would be contingent on getting a pardon.

    If however Trump was to run and lose the primary he would categorically would not row in behind the winner , he would whinge and ****-post about how he was robbed and how the party stabbed him etc. etc.



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    #479
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,425 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852806#Comment_119852806

    What use are the polls with the margin for error is +-3% and the outcome of most elections is the Dems and changing by only a few percentage points relative to each other

    Its Like me saying I can predict the outcome of every coin flip to a margin of error of 50% and just guessing Heads a hundred times in a row

    If the outcomes of elections are always within the margin for error of the polls, then the polling companies should not even attempt to predict the outcome of elections. All they can do is gather data on public opinion, and then allow the politicians to use that data to tailor their policies and manifestos towards what people want.



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    #480
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,478 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852831#Comment_119852831

    Could he not find himself so desperately needing that pardon that he backs another candidate and play it off as being unable to run as he has a legal battle against the witch hunt? Besides winning his favourite play is to claim he's the victim of the worst persecution in history.



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    #481
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,779 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119852647#Comment_119852647

    "the principle that combating Woke ideology is an election winner"

    JFC - I just cringed so hard my back seized up.

    Wth does that even mean? It is the most ridiculous example of creating an imaginary enemy and then campaigning against



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