2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

Rjd2 · 09-11-2022 7:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854197#Comment_119854197

Odd.

Looked at Nevada betting odds and Dems still favs?

Some small bit of good news for Trump is Lake might fall over the line in Arizona, she was blessed that her opponent Hobbs wasn't the most inspiring and dodged a debate with her. Mark Kelly will win also although against a lad who looks like a serial killer aka Blake Masters.

Brian? · 09-11-2022 7:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854197#Comment_119854197

I wouldn’t be so sure about Nevada. A lot of votes to be counted around Vegas

Brian? · 09-11-2022 7:34pm

Herschel Walker got the “family values” vote in Georgia- are they well in the head?

Podge_irl · 09-11-2022 7:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854342#Comment_119854342

They don’t care about the “vessel”. They only care about the judges. They’re disciplined.

Brussels Sprout · 09-11-2022 10:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854342#Comment_119854342

Clearly he values families - after all he has a bunch of them with different women.

Brian? · 10-11-2022 5:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119854335#Comment_119854335

Looks like the senate is going to the Dems. About to pull ahead in Nevada

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2022 6:26pm

The ballot initiative in Nevada to move to open primaries and ranked choice voting is currently winning by 3.6% with 84% counted. Both state parties opposed the measure so that's impressive. I only learned yesterday though that if it wins it won't be enacted. Instead it will be voted on again in 2024. Only if it passes a second time will it become law. Apparently that's how ballot initiatives work in that state. Very unusual way of doing things.

breezy1985 · 10-11-2022 6:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858324#Comment_119858324

What's open primaries ?

As in the whole state can vote what candidate a party runs ?

Nody · 10-11-2022 9:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858370#Comment_119858370

Yes; currently closed primaries where you need to be a registered party member to vote. The actual on the ballot is "Provide for open top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for general elections" which means you could, gasp, choose someone who's not a democrat or republican which is why I can see both parties opposing the idea. This is as well why it has to be voted on twice as it's a citizens ballot proposal because if the legislative don't like it (and they don't as noted earlier) it has to be voted in twice in a row to be turned into law.

The above taken mainly from here.

breezy1985 · 10-11-2022 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119858941#Comment_119858941

Sounds stupid to be honest. How can you have parties if they can't pick their candidates.

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2022 11:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859452#Comment_119859452

Well the other way of looking at it is who will they caucus with if they are elected? Who is going to fund and their campaign? In both cases it'll be the party that they are affiliated with. The supporters of that party can still vote in the primary...just like everyone else. With 5 people going forward they'll certainly be able to get one of their candidates into the general election (if not even 2 or 3 of them).

Alaska has already introduced this and this is the very first general election (although in their course it is 4 that go forward for the general election). In the big statewide races the breakdown by Party of the 4 contestants is:

Governor: 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 1 Independent (he's a former Republican)

Senate: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat

House: 2 Republicans, 1 Democrat, 1 Libertarian

breezy1985 · 11-11-2022 10:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119859767#Comment_119859767

Right I get you now. So it does away with party primaries and sets up a French President style 2 step voting system.

I thought it just meant everyone could pick the republican candidate. Explains my confusion as to why there were 2 Republicans in Alaska. I just thought Palin was up to shenanigans.

Nody · 12-11-2022 8:28am

CNN predicts Democrats wins for the Senate, the house seat and the gubernatorial in Arizona based on the latest batches of vote counts that come out.

Brussels Sprout · 12-11-2022 7:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119860435#Comment_119860435

Yup open primary - open to all candidates from any parties (or none) and all voters.

The most extreme example was the very first one: They had a special election for the single Alaska house seat (because the previous guy died). That was in June and it had FORTY-EIGHT candidates in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election#Results

Most of them were complete no-hopers and ended up only getting a handful of votes. By the time of the next primary for the General election only 22 people entered the primary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska#Results

Nody · 13-11-2022 6:29am

And Nevada retains it's D senator and the Senate remains Democratic as well; honestly a significant rebuff of Trump and the Republicans that no one was expecting and I'd almost dare to say unprecedented under the circumstances (i.e. sitting party, economy in down turn etc. as I know Bush retained after 9/11 but I'd call those special circumstances) but I don't know the history well enough to confirm that. Of course Trump has already claimed it as stolen as expected since in Trump's world view the two options is his candidate wins or it's stolen as Trump can never lose.

Also worth calling out that @Brussels Sprout called it correctly in their predictions in post number 2 on the senate (yes there's a possibility it goes 51/49 but unlikely).

Sam Russell · 13-11-2022 11:04am

Georgia is going for a run off, as they did two years ago.

That time the Democrat won, and might do again. A lot will be spent on both sides to get the vote out. A lot to play for, and a big win on offer for the Democrats - for the Republican - not so much.

marno21 · 13-11-2022 11:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119868252#Comment_119868252

And one of the big tailwinds for the Democrat candidates the last time out was the runoff being held without the draw of Trump on the ballot. This time around Sen. Warnock has the same tailwind, the incumbent Governor Kemp polled 200,000 votes higher than Senate candidate Walker did. It'll be a huge help for Sen. Warnock this time around that Kemp won't be on the ballot.

Walter Sobchak III · 13-11-2022 3:47pm

My back of an envelope calculation has the final result in the House as Reps 220 & Dems 215.

pixelburp · 13-11-2022 4:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119869096#Comment_119869096

If there's any truth to that as a final result ... How many Reps might be purple enough to make that majority of 5 irrelevant? I imagine the answer is "none" given how functionally extinct bipartisanship has become - but it'd certainly be an interesting, and further, slight against the GOP.

interlocked · 14-11-2022 3:21am

If Warnock wins, then Biden is free from having to indulge that absolute reptile, Joe Manchin.

The Democrats will pour resources into Georgia for that reason alone. Whereas the Republicans have no such incentive.

If Trump announces a run on Tuesday, then I'm buying shares in popcorn companies. It will be an absolute bloodbath within the Republican party.

"whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" Ain't that a fact.

Sam Russell · 14-11-2022 10:55am

An analogy: (Sorry)

In the Ukraine war, Russia and Ukraine have quite different strategies at the moment, (From various opinions).

The Russians are attacking civilian infrastructure - water and energy - throughout Ukraine with the apparent intent of breaking the spirit of the Ukrainians and hoping it will bring them to the negotiating table begging for it to end.

The Ukrainians are trying to avoid civilian damage, and target only military targets trying to inflict damage to Russian soldiers and Russian logistics to make it as near impossible to conduct the war, and confine them to just defensive positions - and even make those positions untenable. On the whole, they try to cause as little damage as they can - after all, they intend to live and stay there.

Now one could apply the logic of the Russians to the GOP - who oppose every move by the Democrats in spite of whatever good effect it might have on their own supporters - if it is proposed by the Democrats, then they will oppose it. No low is too low to go for the MAGA proponents. Jan 6th 2021 was an epiphany for the rest of America, and the world, who watched in horror as the very citadel of American democracy was under attack from the barbarians intent on sacking it.

On the other hand the Democrats are trying to improve the lot of Americans by initiatives like Medicare, labour law, fair taxation, building defences to the democratic system that is the whole backbone to the USA. Unfortunately, there are Democrats who do partake of some of the gerrymandering beloved of the GOP. On balance, they appear to try and not do too much damage.

Following the midterms, the Democrats appear to have been heard by many Americans.

Podge_irl · 14-11-2022 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871413#Comment_119871413

I suspect Sinema and Manchin will be played off against each other, but Manchin is far more likely to be appeased more. He holds a seat that no other Democrat could win, Sinema could still be primaried out.

marno21 · 14-11-2022 1:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872471#Comment_119872471

Agreed. The Dems are already up against it in 2024. Seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio will be tricky to defend despite 3 very strong candidates in each state. The last time those seats were up for grabs was 2018, and that year despite the Dems picking up 42 House seats they actually ended up with a net loss of 2 Senate seats (picked up NV (Rosen) and AZ (Sinema), but lost FL (Nelson), IN (Donnelly), MO (McCaskill) and ND (Heitkamp)). The whole Brett Kavanaugh stuff didn't help then either. Manchin needs to be kept on board here at all costs if he is running in 2024.

Brussels Sprout · 14-11-2022 1:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872471#Comment_119872471

Yeah if they get 51 seats then I can see Manchin turning complete heel for these last 2 years in order to try and bolster support in WV. The two house seats there were won by the Republicans by 31 and 38 points in this election! He is running again in 2024 - if he can pull that off that'll be nothing short of amazing.

Mark Kelly's victory in AZ shows that you don't need to be....whatever it is that you would to describe Sinema...in that state. I'd be surprised if she wasn't primaried.

StringerBell · 18-11-2022 4:50pm

Manchin is ridiculously popular in WV, he will win there again in 24 barring something incredible happening.

Sinema is a bigger issue for the Democrats but if they can get the Georgia run-off to break their way they have a good chance of isolating her.

Rjd2 · 18-11-2022 7:48pm

He only won by 3% in 2018 in what was a Bluewave against a weak candidate and 2024 is a presidential election so its far from certain he will win again, its a deep red state that Trump won by near 40%!

All over now, GOP have taken the house with a slim majority , bar that and an impressive effort down ballot in New York and DeSantis and to a lesser extent Kemp smashing it a pretty dire midterms for the GOP.

Its hard to summarise all the chatter afterwards, but from what I can gather people especially indy's were keen to vote Republican but not the crazy ones...

e.g" "generic republican or democrat?"

"Republican I suppose economy is a mess"

"Okay, so Mark Kelly or Blake Masters

I said a generic Republican not whatever the heck Blake is ffs"

The wacko's not only lost their races but dragged down a lot of the generic candidates in their respective states. PA the obvious example.

Georgia senate race left, not a foregone conclusion but would be surprised if Warnock did not win . Looking at the state its clear their was plenty of Kemp/Warnock voters who will come back 2nd time to vote Warnock and Walker is simply a really weak candidate.

It was interesting that Trump dd not speak about stop the steal and abortion in his speech that much on Tuesday because even he must know those 2 issues are poison with the normies and independents.

Brian? · 19-11-2022 9:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119891276#Comment_119891276

I actually think Walker will win in Ga now. They don’t need to mobilise the vote to win the Senate. Even a slightly depressed turnout and Warnock is in trouble.

Sam Russell · 19-11-2022 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119892734#Comment_119892734

I think they need it more than ever. Biden needs to show he can win.

Brussels Sprout · 19-11-2022 4:20pm

The Senate map is absolutely brutal for Democrats in 2024. They are defending 23 seats to the Republican's 10. They're defending in 3 red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio) and 5 swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin). All 10 of the seats that the Republicans are defending are in red states (yes, Florida is a red state now).

Democrats need to win Warnock's seat not just to get to 51 now but to have any hope of keeping the Senate in two years time.

Brian? · 09-12-2022 5:53pm

No sooner does Warnock lock down the senate for the Dems than Sinema ups sticks and is now an independent

Rjd2 · 20-12-2022 7:33pm

Not sure what her plan for 2024 is, she knew she was doomed in a primary but if its a three way between her, a dem and a republican than all bets are off.

However the Arizona GOP is a mess and their is chatter about Blake Masters running again which would make things easier for the dems ni matter what she does. It's possible she just cashes out and retires instead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html

One of the more surreal stories going regarding congress, a Republican in NY lied about well everything on his cv. 😂

Pretty shocking work though from the dems considering the money spent on congress they did what seems like zero oppo research ffs.

Itssoeasy · 02-01-2023 1:32pm

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1609730461701398528?s=61&t=Vc53s2kxBY5QL09a_I9wmw

It’s like herding cats with the GOP. This vote for speaker is normally a formality but not this year it seems.

pixelburp · 03-01-2023 8:29pm

A total embarrassment for McCarthy and the GOP: McCarthy failed to get the requisite votes and it'll go to a second round of voting.

Democrat Hakim Jeffries got 212 votes, McCarthy only managed 203, Republican Andy Biggs (nominated by Paul Gosar) had 10 votes so looks like there's some serious factionalism at play with the GOP at the moment.

I think I read a candidate needs to get 218 so I'd say there's no chance Jeffries will get that given the Republicans still hold the majority - but you never know I suppose

pixelburp · 03-01-2023 9:59pm

The 2nd round took place and the same votes; McCarthy on only 203 with the democrat at 212. Jim Jordan got 19 votes. This hasn't happened in a century and is now a bit unknown what happens next AFAIK. McCarthy drops out but who replaces him that might appeal to the rabid GOP fringe keeping the speaker out?

Itssoeasy · 03-01-2023 10:14pm

Jim Jordan nominated again by I think it’s chip Roy. So same three again. I’ve stood at removals with decades of the rosary that were less repetitive than this stuff. Tonight isn’t a great advertisement for American democracy as they can’t even get passed the first step.

pixelburp · 04-01-2023 7:42am

The vote has been paused til noon DC time today. Jim Jordan actually picked up another vote after the third round. Mad stuff and shows what a performative farce US politics has become.

Some talk is that Steve Scalise might be a compromise candidate that might seem acceptable to the hard right faction scuppering this supposed formality. Which, of course, further process the point that when it comes to the Republicans, the tail is very much wagging the dog here.

pixelburp · 04-01-2023 7:32pm

The fourth round came and went, McCarthy remains incapable of persuading the MAGA crowd. I think there were 20 votes this time against him.

It's calamitous to call this democracy. You'd think they'd just go with the majority vote, but that's US politics for you.

RobbingBandit · 04-01-2023 7:39pm

Civil War stuff the whole "Present" to abstain from voting is a strange one wonder will it get used by more as the night goes on

Sam Russell · 04-01-2023 9:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120065896#Comment_120065896

If he has only 202/203 votes, and Dems have 212, then unless at least 11 republicans vote for McCarthy, then the Dems will get the speaker job. If he does not get the votes, h will not get the gig.

Podge_irl · 04-01-2023 9:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120066252#Comment_120066252

It needs an outright majority so its highly unlikely the Dems would ever get anywhere near it.

This is a total shitshow though.

Itssoeasy · 04-01-2023 9:29pm

This GOP congressman is going through the scare mongering playbook. It’s all bullshit.

What.Now · 04-01-2023 11:15pm

3 parties

Dem with 212

Rep with 202 and dropping

Lunatics with 19/20

Lunitics dont seem to be for moving. Time for the Dems and Rep to extend the olive branch and get together with compromises.

Sam Russell · 05-01-2023 10:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120066328#Comment_120066328

No, abstentions reduce the number for a majority. But if enough the Reps start abstaining, it results in the Dems getting the gig.

Podge_irl · 05-01-2023 6:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120067791#Comment_120067791

Even if that happened (and its v unlikely) it would be a mess. It would be a democratic speaker with no ability to control the house whatsoever.

Mind you, the eventual republican speaker faces the same issue. This is just the start of the chaos.

pixelburp · 05-01-2023 7:10pm

You thought it was a farce already? Oh no. US politics can always find a new depth; Gaetz obviously got a reminder his sucking up wasn't up to snuff.

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1611057465881432067

Itssoeasy · 12-01-2023 1:37pm

“He deceived the voters of the 3rd Congressional District, he deceived the members of the Nassau County Republican Committee, elected officials, his colleagues, candidates, his opponents and even some of the media,”

George Santos' campaign last year was a campaign of deceit, lies and fabrication,"

This is what the Nassau county GOP are saying about George santos and it’s a bit late seeing as how they supported him in the election but it’s better then never.

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/11/george-santos-nassau-county-gop-resignation

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1613226949249503234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1613226949249503234%7Ctwgr%5E8f653061fcf38761104093a96b71717f577accde%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rollingstone.com%2Fpolitics%2Fpolitics-news%2Fgeorge-santos-resign-nassau-county-gop-1234659336%2F

And now it appears that Santos claimed to be a volleyball star at the college he didn’t attend.

Rjd2 · 14-01-2023 1:57am

Yeah that's not good, but who the hell was responsible for the oppo research , astounding they caught none of this.

I hope if he lasts until 2024, the person who the Dems pick had nothing to do with the 2022 campaign and is ideally blacklisted.

2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

Comments