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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭wassie


    'ominous market conditions' = panicked buyers who couldnt keep their emotions in check by overbidding their approved limit, faciliated by EAs and vendors wringing their hands together to extract maximum coin without actually qualifying their buyers.

    Ominous indeed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭Brock Turnpike


    Ah shure ya can't be expecting us to have regulations and that kina nonsense in place here atall atall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Asking prices are a distraction but published statistics lag the market by months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,217 ✭✭✭yagan


    Lived in Perth for a few years and was glad to depart there. Areas like the one in the link got frequent bush fires and they've been getting worse in recentt years. if you're going to live in perth you need to be living on the Perth-Freo trainline.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,584 ✭✭✭✭kippy




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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,217 ✭✭✭yagan


    ....and that's not mentioning the critters that want a piece of you. An average day in Ireland won't kill you but nearly every day in Perth has the potential to!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭wassie


    Besides derailing this thread....thats a load of bollocks...

    Meanwhile the IT are giving that Sherry FitzGerald 'report' predicting prises rises more oxygen.

    House prices in the Republic will continue to grow despite the impact of rising costs and higher interest rates, estate agent Sherry FitzGerald has predicted.

    Now that really is a complete load of bollocks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Should be ashamed of themselves. "Irelands leading estate agents" predicting price rises.

    Has an estate agent ever predict prices drops. You know prices are dropping when you read bs like this. Sentiment is key in the property market, they know once sentiment shifts, prices will drop and sales will stall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,217 ✭✭✭yagan


    so what?

    Prices can rise as sales volumes decline, which if reports are correct the PPR will verify in time.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Of course prices are going to rise in January, with the new 4x mortgage rules for FTBs



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    That house in St Joseph’s st is spacious and very well refurbished,good location, still reasonable value



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭wassie


    Sales volumes are down 18% in 3 months in the North.

    Prices holding for the moment but now, but given the time lag associated with sales data I would expect that is only going one direction from here on in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,640 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    There is also supply problems internationally but it didn't stop them having a correction because of interest rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,640 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    But the report's authors warn that while the market pricing levels in the July-September period have remained on par with quarter two, there are “obvious signs that a price correction will materialise in 2023”, which is shorthand for the market cooling

    Seems like a certainty that there will be a pretty big correction in the UK, many saying 15% or thereabouts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭onrail


    -----

    Post edited by onrail on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2 The mrs


    I'm trying to buy at the moment, renting so worthwhile even if prices drop but anything I'm interested in seems to be going for asking or above, I'm starting to worry we won't get what we want if prices don't come down a little.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I dont think your going to see price drops until the 2nd/3rd quarter of next year. Its next year that interest rates, cost of living, cost of energy and the recession will really kick in. I mean look at the tech space this was one area that grew throughout the last recession and after and now its in a downward spiral. If these big companies are feeling the pinch our small and medium domestic companies are going to be hitting the wall like flies on a windscreen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,949 ✭✭✭Dr Turk Turkelton


    The UK is shortly going to be a failed state. Using data from there is a waste of time.

    Our kids will soon be bringing "a penny for the Brit babies" to school.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,640 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Well that is not going to happen.

    The UK have its issues but its not a failed state, not by a long shot.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,620 ✭✭✭quokula


    It's not a failed state but it's certainly in a downward spiral that is not at all comparable to Ireland. The Bank of England just a few days ago projected that they're at the beginning of what will be their longest recession since records began, while projections say Ireland may not be facing a recession at all. Our GDP per capita is more than twice theirs, our average income is significantly higher, and even with projected rises our mortgage rates don't look like they'll be taking anything like the dramatic jump they did in the UK after their kamikaze mini-budget that they're still trying to unravel.

    It will be no surprise to anyone seeing house prices fall fairly significantly there. But that's no reason to expect the same here.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Give it 12 months already tech bubble has burst and that's not to mention how dire our small and medium domestic companies are going. Throw in interest rates possible going above 4% in the next 12 months. House prices would of dropped by the end of the year but the Central bank (after been put under pressure from the government) tinkering with the lending limits has stalled that for now but once those interest rates go up and up and up and our population starts to get smaller and unemployment grows and with a huge cut to our corpo tax we will see a drop in property prices by the end of next year and the gobshites in power for years have been using the gains from corpo tax to increase our yearly outgoings in both welfare and public sector pay and pensions.. Sure what could go wrong. I point you to Bertie who did the same with welfare and the public sector (benchmarking twice) before that bubble burst in 08 and based this expenditure on the then very expensive stamp duty returns. Its all well and good to do this if we had no debt but we are one of the most indebted nations in the world and the cost of which will rise as interest rates increase. Ireland will be losing a lot of people over the next 12/24 months any young person and even older ones will seriously think about emigration due to no housing to buy or rent. The same issues with property supply does not seem to be as acute in places like the US , UK, Canada or Australia which are typically the most popular destination for our population when it comes to emigration. The cat is out of the bag Ireland is now the most shorted Euro market going from 1% to over 46% so the money men are telling us that they see a whole heap of suffering in the next 12 months for Ireland.





  • Registered Users Posts: 12,631 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Christ if you think people will look at the UK as an enticing prospect to move in the next 12 months...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    The short interest spiking all of a sudden is extremely worrying. The money men know Ireland is fur coat and no knickers especially if these tech heavies corporates tax intakes drop substantially not alone the affect of all the job losses on the income tax side of the balance sheet. The thing is with these tech jobs now is every big tech company in Ireland is on a hiring freeze or laying people off. The people that get laid off realistically have nowhere to go as their counterparts are on hiring freezes. Tough times ahead, as my 'aul fella' would say "no harm, a good aul bang ill put manners on them".



  • Registered Users Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    I think what you find is that the UK tends to bounce back quicker because it is such a magnet for people, especially London.

    What happens to Ireland if the heat comes out of MNCs and a bloated professional services sector; will we be part of the next wave of mobile, global capital as it moves around the globe or will it pass is by? What else can we hang the economic hat on losing a big chunk of our GDP contributors?

    It's a small, open economy as we all know so very flexible and adaptive but also vulnerable. Unfortunately, like with what we had at the start of COVID with an uncertain political climate (no government party for months and the civil servants running the place during a once in a lifetime pandemic), I think there is a risk that the economic slowdown will coincide with potentially a nubile SF-lead government that will unfortunately delay any sort of recovery due to lack of experience and being the dog that catches up with the car.

    Emigration release valve; recalibrate and rinse and repeat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    Government showed their cards when they changed lending rules.

    It was literally the most non-sensical time to do it in terms of supporting and helping buyers, the only reason for a raise in limits is to prop up falling prices.

    Clear display that government policy does not align with the interest of the people. There will be a **** show this year.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,833 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec




  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭alwald


    The CBI lending rules change will contribute to housing price increase for sure.

    The government in the other hand will introduce new measures the moment they sniff a price slowdown as it will lead to a decrease in new houses being built, as they rely on new houses for social/affordable housing... everything is linked and supply is still very low so I don't think prices will decrease at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    If after the last few years ANYONE believes that the state is run for the benefit of Irish citizens, then please PM me, for I have some magic beans to sell. This isn't a country; it's some sort of bizarre pension fund / Ponzi scheme with a flag. To me, living in Ireland is like trying to climb a pyramid whilst those further up pour oil down the slope.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,109 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    ...

    Post edited by SuperBowserWorld on


This discussion has been closed.
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