Softening house market?

Christ if you think people will look at the UK as an enticing prospect to move in the next 12 months...

The CBI lending rules change will contribute to housing price increase for sure.

The government in the other hand will introduce new measures the moment they sniff a price slowdown as it will lead to a decrease in new houses being built, as they rely on new houses for social/affordable housing... everything is linked and supply is still very low so I don't think prices will decrease at all.

...

In fairness he has a point. What reason was there to relax these rules when we have feck all supply? These questions have to be asked and the government were the ones putting pressure on the Central Bank to relax the rules. It completely flies in the face of trying to fight inflation and our cost of living crisis. Why do it now? Why not wait until we have a bit more stock to choose from (even if that takes a few years)?

I have two responses to that. Firstly, yes I was being deliberately hyperbolic, and I think that that is rather obvious. Secondly, the "why don't you just leave" rebuttal has always seemed a very odd thing to say. I actually care about this country, and I am invested in trying to do the best that I can to help my family here. I myself am childless and single, but I have a nephew, and I am trying to gather a patrimony to leave to him. I also look after my last surviving grandmother and my mother.

I am fully aware that Ireland is a lot better than a lot of other places in the world, but this is no way obviates the very clear (to me at least) reality that the social contract of this country is broken, and things may well get worse. Telling someone who points this out that they should leave is simply a maddingly defeatist remark to make.

sorry I had no coffee me I attached the wrong quote .. apologies

Will you stop the government have been putting pressure on the CB for years to relax the rules. So yeah they should be blamed for their part it in.

There was more than Flutter, as the article explains up until recently Ireland's short position was at about 1% of the market we have leapfrogged France and the basket case that is the UK (I mean look at the sh1tshow over there) to hit the number one position. We are 15% higher than the UK. The banks are in a good position feck all competition and high saving rates giving them a nice tidy increase in profits from interest rates. I think we are going to see an absolute decimation of Irish SMEs in the next 12 months and if tech keeps going the way it has been next year's budget will be full of tax increases and spending cuts.

The rebuttal was simply a response to your rant which wasnt making any point. But in fairness, your post above does add to this discussion and I would agree with your notion of the social contract being broken.

Nah, been here before the first tech crash 2001/2002 I remember it well, this is very similar, investors getting the heeby jeebies around the companies they put money into especially the ones not making profit, Musk buying Twitter was a gargantuan mistake on his behalf, he might kill it, who knows? But something else will take its place, Metaverse another huge mistake but the writing has been on the wall for Facebook for some time now.

All these companies will be replaced by other companies, it’s tech it’s going nowhere, I’ve been involved in the industry since the mid nineties, in that time I’ve been made redundant 3 times, had contracts abruptly end, been part of startups that sunk, I’ve also been part of hugely successful companies, but the one constant is nothing stays forever.

Tech jobs pay fantastic, but there’s zero security staying in the one place for over 6 years is a major mistake, tech doesn’t work the way traditional industries work (tech is such a catch all term, some industries are all tech, others have a tech component).

I wouldn’t worry too much about these layoffs other companies will take the staff, the MCN’s aren’t leaving Ireland either, we have a low tax rate, English speaking population, serious tech skills across the board, oh and we’re part of the EU, if you feel like doing business with the biggest market on earth.

Theres a certain macabre glee that some people take when discussing the Irish economy crashing. Glad that tech job losses will lower demand. Happy that interest rates will lower demand. Happy that emigration (god knows to where) will lower demand. As if we're going to see a repeat of 2008 and a fire sale on houses.

I just can't see it happening. For every one downward pressure theres two upward pressures. This just feels like March 2020. Huge uncertainty followed by an inevitable rise.

Also one thing to remember, when the last tech crash happened it had zero effect on the economy, builders were going gangbusters, people were buying houses left right and centre, guys who were laid off in IT got jobs on building sites, also most people aren’t out of jobs for very long.

and conversely when the big house price crash around 2007 happened it had minimal impact on the IT sector I know many people in many companies and none of them lost their jobs, one effect I’ll say it did have was people wanting to be in bigger companies rather than taking a chance on the smaller ones.

If liquidity in the markets starts to dry up which is looking like a real possibility, there will be more 'emergency' QE. This will cause asset prices to rise and hence create even greater divides between the have and have-nots. The economies now are actually a fraud really they are fake and are solely reliant on central bank money. Gone are the days of good old capitalism where profits funded expansion, now its low interest debt that fuels the economies GDP. If they do not reset the global economy by causing asset prices to fall, then come 10 years time we will have populist movements like the NAZI movement after the Weimar republic destruction all around the EU. The US nearly already there with the political and social divisions they have at the minute.

Scary times but I do believe if the CBs resort to the same old low rates and QE to get us out of the next mess caused by having to fight inflation, then history shows that huge problems and unrest will follow.