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Is crypto era over?

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    yeah, that's it

    I mean come on, even now, in the face of enormous scams like FTX and Celsius people can't reanalyse their presumptions and think - hmmm, maybe this isn't what it was made out to be!

    it's ok to be wrong



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,419 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    I may very well be wrong, but posting a comment on the first big down day in the past 5 months reeks of "broken clock is right twice a day"



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    I was just going back to my last post. I agree, it was a bit smart-arse, so I apologise for that.

    I bought 2 bitcoins for cash in 2015 in Starbucks on Stephen's Green, my undergrad is comp sci and I've spent >15 years as a trader and fund manager (fx & bonds) so I was really interested in it; I certainly felt I understood "money" better than 99% of the world. It was clear to me, after buying the coins, that it wasn't going to be money and it was unlikely to be a mainstream asset that would suit normal risk profiles. I then watched it get pumped into oblivion by a mixture of ideologues and con-artists ... and normal people looking to catch a break. I was endlessly frustrated that it was borderline impossible to have grown up conversations with people about it and even moreso by the media who should be circumspect but couldn't jump fast enough on the latest craze that they couldn't understand or fundamentally justify. As a long time operator in the game I have never liked watching retail investors getting screwed around by people eager to take their money. BTC was the latest scheme designed to do just that, there will be more I'm sure but hopefully with fewer "bag holders".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    Self custody is the way to go. You can’t trust someone with your funds. Just look and the Irish banks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    Traditional banking has its own problems too. Futures trading and fractional reserves mean banks are playing with money they don’t have then you have an ever increasing money supply, and people wonder why inflation is sky high. It been increasing since Covid due to the amount of money printed and thrown around like confetti, the Russia situation just made it even worse but it was always coming.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    As I said ... far too many people who don't understand finance or money opining on it based entirely on either ideology or ignorance.

    Finance is complicated and, macro wise, difficult to fully internalise and understand. It takes at least a decade of full time work in the markets to understand it. I think, because money is something everybody has to deal with in their lives, they too easily believe they understand it in a fundamental sense. Unfortunately that's like thinking you're a dentist because you pulled out your own tooth when you were 7.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    You could say the same of the crypto market. For someone with an IT background you don’t seem to understand the value of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,362 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    What can Bitcoin and the block chain do that current technology can't, and why don't we see current technology providers having the same crazy volatility?



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    Au contraire - having a financial and comp sci background I understood it deeply, which was why I could see the scam.

    Why don't you ask SBF if he understands "the value" of it 😅



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    I work in IT specifically, in Banking for over twenty years. large banks do have crypto trading teams. They see it as a hedge with a relatively small allocation in it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    Its better to have a small position in it incase it has a huge jump in price than to have no position at all, they trade on the short term and hold otc trades on the long term.

    Others think that the trading volatility is is also caused by banking traders trying to manipulate the market.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,236 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo




  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    1. That it's money
    2. That it will ever be money
    3. That it's a useful investment vehicle for normal people

    i get there's going to loads of ideologues on here but, for just one minute, why not look at the collapse of things like FTX and stop and ask yourself if you've got a few assumptions wrong here - is there not something to learn? marrying yourself to nascent theories is a really weak intellectual stance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    It’s not money but it can be used as a payment system in conjunction with traditional banking. What your saying is like holding up Lehman brothers or Enron and saying ‘look all shares and finance companies are a scam’.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 452 ✭✭Dont Be at It


    I linked this at the start of the year... Pretty much nailed down what's been playing out.

    Some folks' unwillingness to hear a bad word said about crypto is bizarre to me. You don't get that kind of cult following with any other asset class. I say this as someone who has bought crypto in the past.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,967 ✭✭✭antimatterx




  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    no it's not like that at all actually

    it's like saying transubstantiation is a scam and the church that sells it



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The exchange coins are comical. Like you go into school with a bag full of leaves, give your friends a few leaves and then give them value by letting them sell them to you for a euro each. You count your own leaves and see that you actually have a billion of them in this bag so you now you have a billion euros of assets, and then you go to the bank and take out a billion euro loan with these leaves as collateral.

    This entire system is built on top of absolute garbage like that. And worse.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,622 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Crypto is dead. Long live crypto.

    This is when you start making the money long term.


    I use DeFi and didn’t even break much of a sweat when those projects collapsed except for adding more collateral. The key is to use real Defi such as Uniswap and AAVE not centralized finance.


    I even bought a car using stable coins.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,517 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    This news about the FTX 'hack' is really damaging and extremely dubious. I think serious regulation is probably incoming now, which makes you question the whole purpose of crypto considering fundamentalists believe it's a way to break free from institutionalised banking. Hedge against inflation? No. A way to achieve financial independence? Probably not.

    Bitcoin heading for sub $10k? I wouldn't rule it out.



  • Posts: 2,725 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It’s mad that almost every major figurehead in crypto is an unrelenting psychopath.



  • Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭Mucashinto


    This really seems like a serious hammer blow to 'the space' (whatever that means) to me but I guess experienced heads might see it as just part and parcel of what's always happened, and it rises again regardless. Atm though I just can't see when people will feel comfortable that all the contagion is out of the system and it's safe to take certain assumptions for granted. It's absolutely mad to me tbh, first time I've really thought it could all go to 0. Maybe a giant collapse would be best to eradicate all the doubt even if a few innocent get taken out? Although what's to stop the psychos coming back again, we like 'em when they're pushing the price up...

    I've been a bit surprised at the lack of chatter about this outside of crypto spaces as well tbh. Makes me think 1) Normies are not that affected - so they're out of crypto much more than they were 2020-21ish (so that's bearish), and 2) It's actual big players that the 2 Sams have fucked. Usually those types don't lose surely (and don't accept it) and ultimately that's money needed to make the whole thing work so that may be more damaging? Idk, I never used FTX, might feel differently if I did.

    Imo BTC comes out of this looking well. Like it may not be the most exotic of tech but it does what it says reliably and consistently, how many others can really say the same. Personally I bought at 7-8k in April 2020 and hoped it would get to 30k in the near (6mths - 2yrs) term. I still feel certain it's going to be here in 10 years time, it's just such an attractive idea. The rest though, I'm guessing they're suddenly going to be getting a lot more due diligence done on them than they're used to.

    Anyway probably go through the whole cycle again in however many years time. Then I'm going all in :) Really, any piece of junk that seems obviously worthless, jpegs, whatever's new, I'm buying :). Spent this whole cycle staring in disbelief as prices rocketed the way they did, not next time...

    Christ, what absolute madness. Cover of Forbes 3 months ago, what the absolute fuuuuuuuu



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This could be the last one I reckon..in 4 years time the CBDCs will be in and the crypto dream will be in the past..



  • Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭Mucashinto


    Yeah, I’m thinking you might be right now. None of this makes sense. This doesn’t come across as a case of greed or hubris, there’s just way too much oddness throughout the whole thing.

    Where did all the money go? How was a seemingly tiny group of people able to basically never lose a trade and could pretty much liquidate anyone in the world if they set their sights on them? Why is there none of the usual outrage in the press that immediately follows any crypto bad news?


    It’s all very off. Did Boris Johnson really just start following Vitalik Buterin on Twitter (Vitalik who just made some very kind “we all make mistakes” tweets about SBF). Haha, wtf is going o

    I know conspiracies can be tempting to make sense of complicated events, but surely there’s too much going on here? Am I just ignorant about how small the crypto space is and a handful of people can cobble together a program that allows them to control the market they way they did (while also setting up a massive worldwide exchange)? 17 people in the Bahamas? These same people who bust out and then proceed to act like crackheads, trying to break into people’s bank accounts?

    WTAF is going on here, proper madness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,335 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    Gary Gensler the head of the SEC and SBF apparently have links. People are asking how he got to testify in the hearings if his company was insolvent at the time, he is also the second biggest Democrat donor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,419 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    There's pros and cons of this for Crypto.

    Pro - this should lead to regulation. Institutional and Retail investors lost money here, at some point there has to be regulation on the major coins.

    Cons - this will reduce Confidence of both Institutional and Retail investors investing in Crypto. It'll take a while to get it back, and the only way price of an asset increases is with buying.


    In the end of the day, for Cryptocurrencies/blockchain to ever relly function, there has to be more stability to it. The idea for a monetary system away from Central Banks and High Street banks, was that nobody is making money on transaction costs etc. There shouldn't be billionaires made out of it. If there is, someone is paying (investors)



  • Registered Users Posts: 751 ✭✭✭techman1


    The thing about the crypto collapse is that its really affecting the poorer countries that really bought into the whole thing. Lack of fate in their own country's currency and government ala Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Nigeria and hatred for the dollar attracted them into the crypto story. Unfortunately for them they have taken the biggest hit in this ,in the West crypto was just a side show.

    The unusual thing about crypto compared to other financial crazes is that it's had a number of cycles, usually there is just one cycle a big peak , then a collapse , then end of the whole thing

    When the history of this thing is written it will really be about ultra low interest rates ,that was the factor above all else thar caused the huge crypto bubble and the raising of interest rates and inflation has now burst it



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    No, there's a big difference between decentralisation and no regulation, it is possible to have regulation and decentralisation work together to some degree.

    Requiring centralised exchanged to prove funds exist, and audit those exchanges wouldn't do any harm to crypto

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


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