Softening house market?

Give it 12 months already tech bubble has burst and that's not to mention how dire our small and medium domestic companies are going. Throw in interest rates possible going above 4% in the next 12 months. House prices would of dropped by the end of the year but the Central bank (after been put under pressure from the government) tinkering with the lending limits has stalled that for now but once those interest rates go up and up and up and our population starts to get smaller and unemployment grows and with a huge cut to our corpo tax we will see a drop in property prices by the end of next year and the gobshites in power for years have been using the gains from corpo tax to increase our yearly outgoings in both welfare and public sector pay and pensions.. Sure what could go wrong. I point you to Bertie who did the same with welfare and the public sector (benchmarking twice) before that bubble burst in 08 and based this expenditure on the then very expensive stamp duty returns. Its all well and good to do this if we had no debt but we are one of the most indebted nations in the world and the cost of which will rise as interest rates increase. Ireland will be losing a lot of people over the next 12/24 months any young person and even older ones will seriously think about emigration due to no housing to buy or rent. The same issues with property supply does not seem to be as acute in places like the US , UK, Canada or Australia which are typically the most popular destination for our population when it comes to emigration. The cat is out of the bag Ireland is now the most shorted Euro market going from 1% to over 46% so the money men are telling us that they see a whole heap of suffering in the next 12 months for Ireland.

The short interest spiking all of a sudden is extremely worrying. The money men know Ireland is fur coat and no knickers especially if these tech heavies corporates tax intakes drop substantially not alone the affect of all the job losses on the income tax side of the balance sheet. The thing is with these tech jobs now is every big tech company in Ireland is on a hiring freeze or laying people off. The people that get laid off realistically have nowhere to go as their counterparts are on hiring freezes. Tough times ahead, as my 'aul fella' would say "no harm, a good aul bang ill put manners on them".

Government showed their cards when they changed lending rules.

It was literally the most non-sensical time to do it in terms of supporting and helping buyers, the only reason for a raise in limits is to prop up falling prices.

Clear display that government policy does not align with the interest of the people. There will be a **** show this year.

Of course not, I didnt say they were.

If after the last few years ANYONE believes that the state is run for the benefit of Irish citizens, then please PM me, for I have some magic beans to sell. This isn't a country; it's some sort of bizarre pension fund / Ponzi scheme with a flag. To me, living in Ireland is like trying to climb a pyramid whilst those further up pour oil down the slope.

Relax with the hyperbole

You're free to leave anytime you like to a state that is run for the benefit of its citizens, like the 'People's Republic of China' or 'Democratic People's Republic of Korea' (thats North not South), where they appreciate the voices of dissent on publicy accessible forums.

I don't see anywhere in my statement that agrees with relaxing the rules. Nor do I see anything in his statement that gives a reasoned argument against relaxing the rules - just a hyperbolic statement about the state of Ireland.

so the government get blamed for the CB rule change and the post ends with another non specific doom prediction, pretty standard.

The article is behind a paywall. The only company I could see named before the wall was Flutter Entrainment which is a gaming/ betting company it owns Paddy Power which it says is the most shorted

I looked up the CB list you will see it below. It lists no current positions. On the historical list there was some action on bigger Irish corporate stocks most manufacturing companies that have large operations outside Ireland ( Kerry group, Glanbia, Smurfit, Irish Continental Group) but they do not seem to be in place at present

https://www.centralbank.ie/regulation/industry-market-sectors/securities-markets/short-selling-regulation/public-net-short-positions

While Flutter entertainment may be shorted it mainly a British company so it may be over priced in the irish Market.

The Irish market is notorious as it it such a small market. I be much more worried if I saw the Irish banks shorted or companies just involved in the Irish market

The only short positions listed( and they are historical) are for bigger companies that have exposure to the international market. There is very few companies on the Irish stock market that have huge dependence on the Irish SME's.

Most of the stock value in the Irish market is made up.by our large MBC's ( Kerry, Glanbia, Surmfits, CRH, Ryanair, Flutter ICG) and the Irish Banks you cannot short any large portion without shorting them.

The last big shot on the Irish market was Irish Permanent about 4 years ago where it was shorted and the price fell substantially. This was due to its exposure to negative ECB interest rates.

90% of Flutter's business is outside Ireland.

I'm permitted one rant per week; it's in my boards contract :P

You keep your positive rhetoric to yourself please

I am are of a Tiger era estate which still has unsold, fully built, 2008 spec houses (Radharc an Atha in Glenties); and also when I was last in Oldtown in North county Dublin in 2020 there were still a few skeletons of houses there.

The rise after March 2020 was probably mostly due to money printing. Trillions of dollars / euros / whatever were printed by states throughout the west, and it rather clear that a lot of it went straight into asset markets.

I don't want to see the economy crash and people put out of work, but for those who do wish to see the economy take a hit, I can understand the position. There are people up and down the country who would kill to see a 2008-esque crash in the housing market because if it doesn't happen, they know that they will never own a home. If there is no "correction" in the economy, then things will continue as they are, and life will be come increasingly unaffordable for more and more people.

Again, I'm not one to wish for a crash, but I can see where they're coming from.

I think you'll find that the post WW2 social contract is broken pretty much everywhere. It died in 2008. Check out the situation in Portugal from this article. They have the same uni party as here masquerading as choice. There's little by the way of livable property below 300k in Lisbon or Madrid where the average Joe is lucky to pull in 14K net per annum. Do the maths on multiples. Zero chance. Same applies in Sydney, Melbourne, Paris or Toronto etc . Meanwhile there's six Trillion in funny money being shuffled around the Docklands waiting to blow like a neuton bomb. At the start of the GFC Ireland had 70 B in debt...now supposedly tipping at 250B. Who knows the true figure? Where did the extra 180 B go?

https://medium.com/the-portuguese/the-portuguese-can-no-longer-afford-to-live-in-portugal-or-even-survive-eaa8fdffc4b9

Looked at myhome last week and there was 597 houses for sale in my county, looked again today 652. I wonder are landlords starting to move...

There was some discussion earlier in the thread about the CBI (effectively an arm of Government) loosening the lending rules.... as I see it this was for a number of reasons

- People up and down the country have plenty of savings (after the pandemic) and are well able to buy houses (if there were any available to buy).

- The Government wants its share (stamp duty etc.) of that money soo needed to incentivise the builders to build more (some) houses by bumping up the selling prices of houses

- The government had the ideal 'cover' for all of this by reasoning that people would be better off buying than renting.

This is the exact nonsense that was going on back in the Celtic Tiger times.... the only difference now is that the banks aren't lending the big money to builders, soo they are not building "ghost" estates in BallyGoBackwards. We will have a recession but no great house price collapse.

Lets hope and pray its not an "eat zee bugz" global reset, it certainly would make you question it though. If I was to put my mad hat on, there is certainly a agricultural land grab world wide at the minute and I'm not sure its all to do with the control of food. The control of food is a factor but I honestly believe that carbon or CO2 will become a traded commodity down the line as companies go towards net zero. Land mass and seas are the largest sequester of carbon in the world, and in fact the bogland is the best at carbon storage. I think invested interests want to kill the off the non intensive farming in these regions to eventually farmers will sell up and land will be bought for penny's when in fact if the value of carbon was added to the land it would be a hell of a lot more. Anyone wondering if I am crazy, look at the EU Bio-diversity 2030 directive, it involves setting legally binding targets in terms or re wetting reclaimed land going back 70 years. They want this land to soak the carbon emitted by the major multinational companies of the world.

There was a climate or a culture of borrowing to the excess. This was heavily promoted by the banks on all media.

I get that people should have full awareness of their own situation, but you can't blame people 100% for getting carried away by the fever. Remember the loan ads that were run in the mid 2000s?

Need a place to get laid? Buy a house! (100% mortgages from Bank of Ireland)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_URy6gEijg

I'm in the same age-bracket. Many of my cousins / friends / colleagues are trying to settle down. Some of them have, but others have not. I actually have two friends who are single again because their long-term relationship fell apart. Both of them have told me that an inability to find accommodation was a major factor.

Honestly, it does sometimes feel like we're a cursed generation. Speaking for myself, I graduated in 2010 and spend five years doing crumby jobs. I didn't get to earn good money until I was nearly 30. I happen to not want a family, but if I did, it wouldn't really be an option. How many people of our age have put their lives on hold (again)?

Anyways, there's little that we can do about it. The state and the older generations don't seem to care as long as their pensions are paid...

I don't want anything from the state whatsoever. What I would like is to see the state stay out of the market, and cease its tinkering. It is relying on the state as if its some sort of parent that has lead us to where we are now.

Really can you point to the changes? I remember all the warnings before you claim they existed and I don't know of what was introduced about signing a loan like you say. Are you talking about some slight changes to advertisement and promotions?that customer protection was

Not sure why you think customer protection was so lax. What I do remember is the amount of people lying on their applications for mortgages