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BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I suspect he could see the writing on the wall and the inevitable unpopularity of the PM who has to impose public service cuts and tax rises before losing the next election

    He’s a ‘good news guy’. What’s happening now isn’t really his bag



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,625 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You'd have to be either exceptionally stupid or exceptionally venal to want to be PM now.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Rather out of character though. I think more likley he was leaned on.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I was referring to the Conservative party, not all parties.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,603 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    What a farce from Johnson. He makes the trip home, gets enough MP's to support him and, like in 2016, takes the cowardly way out and slinks off. Leaving his supporters, and of course since he believes he is a great leader, the entire country lost.

    You would think that even from his own supporters that would be the last straw, but Jonson seems to be able to get people to continually believe in him despite all prior evidence.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,625 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    They're getting jittery. They're latching desperately onto Johnson's 2019 win. The man himself knows that winter will destroy Sunak so best let it take its course.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,627 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    That's been the problem in the Tories since the Brexit result. Any Tory politician with an ounce of political nous (starting with Cameron) immediately recognised the dumpster fire that had been landed on the country, and that PM was absolutely a poisoned chalice. The only ones willing to step forward were the ones that had no chance of ever becoming PM otherwise, because they were entirely unsuitable. If Sunak had any real business being PM, he would have been sitting back waiting for the farce to play out. He's 42, he could easily have led the party 5+ years from now and been in a much more successful place. But he knows he had zero chance in a real leadership battle - he was beaten by Liz Truss for goodness sake.

    Any politician with real ambitions of being a successful PM headed for the backbenches and are waiting for a spell in opposition to start their leadership bid. That way, Labour will have had a spell managing what is still a dumpster fire (with no way to extinguish it), while they can hurl from the ditch and attempt to build the "New Tories"

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It’ll be 12 years before the tories are back in power properly (I don’t count the next two years as it’s the markets that are in power) so for Truss and Sunak and Mordaunt and others who wanted to be PM, it was probably their only chance to be PM



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,653 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Pretty astonishing they are now predicting a 2 year recession in the UK and unemployment to rise up near 6%. The damage Truss did in her short time is office was like economic suicide. Bank of England are saying they were just hours away from a run of the markets that they wouldnt have been able to prevent, thats how close it was. Truss' mini budget has put the taxpayer in the hock for billions but of course the Tory mouthpieces are blaming it all on global events, do they ever stop lying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,362 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Any politician with real ambitions of being a successful PM headed for the backbenches and are waiting for a spell in opposition to start their leadership bid.

    Like who?

    This is not how politicians operate, or the great majority anyway. If the party leadership, and more particularly PMship comes up and they think have a decent shot at it they go for it, irrespective of circumstances. Look at the Tories during their New Labour wilderness years; whenever the leadership came up the 'big beasts' were queuing up even though they must have known their chances of making to no. 10 were slim. This guy knows the score




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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Dont pretend that your side haven’t done the same. And that’s what it is now unfortunately…..it’s two sides, full of hate for the other and unbending in their respective views, in a war for the nation. Have you seen the daily telegraph recently? Getting closer to the USA as the weeks go by

    it’s going to be interesting to see how much traction the Reform party gets in 2024.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It wasn't a lie.

    Margaret Thatcher's majority to Boris Johnson's majority is approximately 40-years.

    I was clearly referring to the Conservative Party; this, a statistic that was repeated ad nauseum at the time Johnson secured the majority.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So Boris had 100 votes and stood down to avoid splitting the party ?

    Also


    Who cares if either version is true. Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭Ahwell


    The only thing clear about your original post was that it was incorrect and your inability to admit you got something wrong.

    The statistic you're mixing up is...43.6% of the popular vote was the highest percentage for any party since 1979. That was the stat that would of been repeated ad nauseum, not the nonsense you came up with.

    Post edited by Ahwell on


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,492 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Worth comparing Johnson's 42% in 2019 with Jeremy Corbyn's 40% in 2017.

    So, Johnson the uniquely beloved miracle vote-getter? Nah, that's balls. Always was.

    Johnson did well - not amazingly well, but well - in an election in his new PM honeymoon period with a simple appealing slogan facing an unpopular opponent and an electorate that had no experience of what he would actually be like as PM. That combination of circumstances can never recur for him.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Seems that the Conservative Party is now hemorrhaging support to the modern doppelganger of UKIP, the Reform Party - led by Richard Tice.

    All those UKIP voters who lent their support to the conservatives in 2019 may now see the Reform Party as their new home, making the electoral prospects of the conservative party even more doomed. In much the same way UKIP was a semi-permanent thorn in the side of the CP.

    Sunak ought to be worried about this development. Though if Sunak can address the concerns of this voter block, and I doubt that he will, it may mitigate this risk.




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,603 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    So we are right back to where Cameron was. The last 6 or so years, which was essentially an attempt to protect the conservative party from loss of support to UKIP, have been a complete waste of time, money and effort.

    Now the whole country is worse off because the Tory party wanted the country to pay for their own internal argument.

    UKIP, Farage really, bottled it at the last election. He had likely support but dropped out to allow the Tories a free hand and since then they have done nothing but complain about it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    yeh, it’s disappointing that brexit was done and yet the conservatives are right back to where they were pre referendum. What an utter wasted opportunity, from a party perspective. Let alone the damage to the country

    That said, I don’t see that the Reform party will be any more successful that Change UK. Easy to say you prefer them in a poll….harder to walk into a voting station and tick that box and either waste your vote or hand a bigger majority to labour



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,625 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Not quite comparing like with like there. Change UK were a new entry in an already saturated political market. Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all had pronounced Remain movements. There was no need for another.

    Reform's main threat isn't that it will win, it's the risk of them splitting the Tory vote. The problem with culture war politics is that you have to go all in all the time. Offering to put people on boats in camps is all well and good but when someone else comes along offering to shoot them, you're the weak option.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    Reform Party is a few dozen puce-faced racists who can't get an erection now a brown man is prime minister.


    And Lawrence "1.9%" Fox.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Laurence Fox will never pose a threat to the Conservative Party. His "Reclaim Party" is just a manifestation of his own narcissism, probably created for self-promotional reasons and the financial opportunities that come with pretending to care about Woke politics.

    Reform UK under Richard Tice is a far more serious political formation, and definitely poses a threat to the Conservative Party's electoral prospects in 2024. It's unofficial spokesperson is Nigel Farage, who can redirect his traditional supporters down onto Tice. 8% support, and presumably that's with very little marketing of the party to date. In 2-3 years Reform UK may become a very serious force, acting as a stifling anchor around the political neck of the Conservatives.

    Your blithe dismissal of the party, with that cheap kind of language, only exposes your dearth of understanding on this matter.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,475 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Their threat is in splitting the Right wing Tory vote - They won't win a single seat.

    The way to nullify that threat is not to lean into the nutters like Cameron did by allowing the Brexit vote and bowing to the ERG but by trying to move in the other direction and winning the much larger middle ground.

    Sadly we know the likely options the Tories will choose.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,625 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The Reform party is likely to be a platform around which various deplorable demographics can coalesce. Obviously, we have the racists and xenophobes. There's also likely to be the UK's niche libertarian population as well as the usual loonies and fruitcakes like UKIP backer Demetri Marchessini who said that women shouldn't be allowed to wear trousers.

    Now that Farage has jumped ship, I can't see it doing well. At best, it'd split the Tory vote but very few people have heard of Richard Tice. He has no appeal. It's the downside of using a stoolie like Farage to do your dirty work for you.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    If you'd like to make a bet on how many seats the Reform Party will win at the next general election, I'm here. My bet is 0.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,972 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ironically all down to FPtP which many on the UK rightwing refuse to believe is undemocratic



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's not about winning seats; it's about putting pressure on the Conservatives.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,475 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Indeed , but will they learn from the mistakes of the last time this happened with UKIP or will they just repeat them again?

    The mistake being pandering to the far right within their ranks to try to stop them jumping ship to UKIP.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,625 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's not ironic at all. It's being undemocratic is literally the point along with the new boundary changes. They know they can't win and argument despite incessant media blitzkrieg so they rely on the broken electoral system.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,492 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Yes, it's the same tactics used by UKIP, which also won basically no seats but succeeded in doing a management buy-out of the Tory party.

    But of course this means that the Tories have been here before. They know where accepting the hard right management buyout offer gets them; it gets them to here — five PMs in six years, and 21% in the polls. Madness to imagine that yielding to Reform pressure will work out any better for them than yielding to UKIP pressure did. To rebuild, they need to appear credible to middle-ground voters. There was a time when that was compatible with being an enthusiast for hard Brexit. That time is gone.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That would perhaps be true if that cohort of the conservative vote were extreme. But they aren't extreme, and Sunak must listen to them if he has any chance of winning the next election - or to score as high a result as possible for the conservatives.

    The precedent shows that moving to the centre, a la Cameron, doesn't work.



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