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Softening house market?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,017 Dr Turk Turkelton
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    If the state was to stop tinkering in the market would it not be up to the banks to decide themselves how many times salary to loan ratio is applied?

    For instance if they had a guy who was a sure fire bet to be an earner for his working life they could give him ten times salary?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,272 straight
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    The self pity of your generation is overdone and driven by media and other interested political parties and the like trying to profit from it. Look to the generations before you that were sent to world wars, my parents bought in the seventies and they hadn't a penny, it was a big deal to have central heating and an indoor toilet . I bought in the Celtic tiger, house value fell to half and nobody gave a sh1t. Stuck in negative equity and still below the price I paid for it in 2006. Only through hard work, sacrifice and effort I managed to build another house in 2013. People now want all the bells and whistles but don't want to pay for it. Fur coat and no knickers mentality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 Beigepaint
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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,272 straight
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    More excuses. Plenty value out there. I see plenty houses in cork and limerick cities for under 250k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24 igord


    One thing I see happening first hand is people strongly considering moving out of Ireland and cashing in on their properties they bought in last 5-10 years. With today's prices they are in s good position to close the mortgage and have a small profit. Also with redundancies looming across the tech sector double cash injection is looking as an opportunity to them. Don’t know if the numbers are high enough to reverse property prices but in my circle there is a good amount that are considering the option.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,054 Jonnyc135
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    While I won't overly disagree and there is some of that going on but for the most part it's not. We have successful people earning good wages and are priced out of the market. A gard and a nurse back in the seventies would have been blue chip jobs and would have guaranteed that household a modest living. That couple now especially if the are living in Dublin wouldn't have a pot to piss in. The would have realistically a very low probability of saving a deposit in their 20s as their wages would not be high enough until the incremental yearly increases get you to a higher wage in your early 30s. I feel sorry for these people.

    Do I feel sorry for someone in a great high paying job and during their 20s the pissed alot of money away travelling here there and everywhere for istaworthy photos and in return have no saving for deposit and because of this excess lifestyle they are accostomed too their become incapable of saving, absolutely not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 HerrKuehn
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    The banks have shown themselves to completely incapable of self regulation last time. That is the reason for the LTI restrictions. I don't think anyone wants a completely unregulated market. The banks should have to meet capital requirements etc. The houses/apartments need to be built to a certain standard.

    All that is completely different to giving FTB 30k towards a property purchase, or allowing special chosen ones to purchase properties at below market value subsidised by the state.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,502 Padre_Pio
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    With the exception of Facebook (meta shambles) Twitter (Musk shambles) and Stripe (expansion shambles), there have not been many rumblings of job losses. I would say a lot of it is fearmongering.

    I would only be worried if we start seeing previously profitable tech companies shedding long time staff and blaming the economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 The Spider
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    Well there are a few others in fairness, the likes of zen desk and sales force, although personally I see this as bandwagon jumping, bigger concern is companies trying to roll back remote working, as that was giving a release valve to the Dublin property market, if these guys start looking for people to come back in there’ll be big trouble.

    I know a few people in Twitter and they were essentially told they could work from home forever before the whole Musk scenario, now some of them are ok because they’re earning really good money and are in commuter towns or suburbs of Dublin their other halves don’t work, so they can readjust. But there’s a whole other cohort who moved out of Dublin to Sligo, Galway, Cork etc, they’re on ok wages, their other halves work, but on the back of being told they can work from home forever, they cancelled child care etc, so their kids come home from school around 4, do their own thing while they’re working, and obviously they drop them to school.

    Now Musk has demanded people back in the office its untenable for those people even if they managed to commute, gong that distance 5 days a week will cost you around 360 a week in petrol, let alone time away from family, I’m going to assume the food is still free in the office so they don’t have to pay for that, childcare if they could somehow get it would be around another 3-400 a week depending on how many kids ages etc.

    so that’s an extra 3 grand a month for the pleasure of working in Twitter, I don’t need to tell you that these guys are seeing solicitors in terms of whether what Musk is doing is legal because there’s no way they can do it

    Post edited by The Spider on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,502 Padre_Pio
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    Musk can say what he wants about US employees, there's a world of difference between US labour laws and ours.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out and whether other companies jump on this bandwagon as well!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,737 pinksoir
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    It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. A lot of those working in "tech" are not actually involved in the tech (i.e. engineering, product development etc) side but rather in stuff like advertising (social media etc), HR, sales and multi lingual sales, "customer success" (whatever that even means), and other fluff.

    Some will find jobs in other companies (may or may not be tech) if/when they are **** canned, but many will not as the jobs aren't there, and those that do will likely be taking a considerable pay cut. There's still a huge demand for engineering/design/ux roles, as these are not restricted to "tech" companies. And man, is it hard to find good candidates for those.

    It was obvious there was a slowdown on the cards as soon as there was a pandemic, it's difficult to comprehend how this wasn't seen by the companies themselves, but rather infinite growth into the future and thus a massive hiring drive all round. I suppose everyone just drank the cool aid.

    It's a bit like the pre crash housing market, only with tech companies.

    Hopefully doesn't damage the employment figures and economy too badly, I genuinely don't see it doing so. Particularly as so many of the roles were filled by foreign labour which will either get another job (good luck if you're on a sponsored visa) or head off.

    But I do see a small but significant fall in higher paid labour (that needs to be housed) which will no doubt affect housing availability albeit in a limited way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,751 Bass Reeves
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    Nobody is .Ali g excuses for personnel responsibility however it was so easy to get money in the noughties it was crazy.

    One local lad without an ''ar5e in his pants '' as the expression goes was interested in buying a small pub/hotel ( that commercial travellers used to use pre the noughties) he came out of the bank with the money for the hotel and for a huge house that was for sale in the area as well, he borrowed a million plus

    In 2010/12 he walked away from the whole lot and went abroad. Personal responsibility only protects the public so far. Regulations protect other individuals from the irresponsibility of others.

    TBH if you had a head on your shoulders, did not over borrow and kept away from property it was a great opportunity if you managed to have cash in hand going into the 2012-2014 period.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    I entered the working world in an extremely depressed economy, and I struggled for years to find a decent job. I didn't earn good money until I was in my early 30s (I'm 36 now). I didn't travel the world or splurge on gadgets and gizmos. I saved what I could, tried to invest in things I knew a lot about and generally tried to improve my lot. I have received no help from my parents as they don't have a lot to give. Am I typical of my generation? I don't know, but I can assure you that many of us a not soy-latte chugging hipsters who walked into a 100k a year job out of college.

    Regarding those who bought at the height of the Celtic Tiger, I actually think that something SHOULD have been done to help such people, but I'm glad that you managed to pull yourself out of debt.

    I don't want anything handed to me. All that I want is the opportunity to work hard and lay down roots that I can pass down to my godson. As it is, it seems that for an ever increasing proportion of younger people, the future is perpetually paying rent to prop up someone else's investment fund.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 Beigepaint
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    Many of the late 50s/ early 60s users of this forum only know a handful of wasteful rich kids (perhaps their neighbours and friend’s children and grandchildren) and think this is representative of the age cohort.

    If only you were literate enough to understand how your generation screwed mine, grandad.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,173 cute geoge
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    What I can not understand is people renting houses for years and then complaining about the buying prices of a house .Did they all miss the day at school when the teacher told us that 'rent was dead money'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,272 straight
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    Best of luck with it all lad. I remember when I started working in 1999 for 12500k pounds a year. I was paying 300 pounds a month rent sharing a house with 4 other pissheads. Great times and that's what your 20's are for. Houses kept doubling in price and we were all saying they have to fall, It can't continue. Most of my friends settled down and bought houses with their girlfriends at the peak of the boom, lost jobs then, negative equity, stuck in a house in the wrong place, etc. No generation has it easy. It's just easy when you look back sometimes it seemed easy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 jimmybobbyschweiz
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    Rents peaked at crazy high levels the last couple of years and considering, for me, the rental market has inflated the whole property market, we are beyond the peak for the whole market.

    Rents at €2k pm for a one bed are the absolute maximum possible without extreme wage inflation for workers who rent them.

    To see the property market keep climbing from here is to also see rents climb from here; 1 bed for €2.5k pm? Absolutely not.

    A 1 bed for €2k pm plummeting to €1.4k pm? Definitely possible. There is scope for a big correction in the market for sure; watch the rental market closely as demand for expensive rentals has dried up, aided by tech sector contraction and the cost of living crisis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 162 Eclectic Econometrics
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    I read your post and almost immediately saw this on Twitter https://twitter.com/balinares/status/1591403431616446465

    I looked at the thread again and Musk responded, hence the edit - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1591580235132465153



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,806 MrMusician18
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    The problem which these people don't realise, is that for the market to crash, they themselves have to be excluded too



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 The Spider
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    Ha yeah I saw that thread Musk seems to be under the illusion that he can fire Willy Nilly in Ireland.

    Not so Musk old chap, if you want someone out you have to put them on a pip and before you do that you have to have evidence that they haven’t achieved the goals assigned to them, if you don’t have that no pip.

    Also there has to be a series of warnings before the pip.

    when you put them on a pip the goals have to be achievable within a 40 hour week, also they can’t be humiliating.

    if they achieve all the goals it’s back to square one, and even if they don’t you leave yourself open to unfair dismissals still, as a dismissal in Ireland is automatically considered unfair.

    why do release of claims forms exist, a company can talk to an employee and ask them to sign a form that they won’t claim against the company, but the employee is required to get legal advice before they sign.

    Needless to say that’s a pretty expensive signature.

    The normal route a company takes when making redundancies is to look for voluntary redundancies, by paying over and above the odds to get as many to volunteer as possible, in fact ideal world they want the whole company to volunteer, because that removes all legal impediments and they can pick and choose who they want to go.

    if someone doesn’t volunteer and they’re made redundant then it’s automatically considered an unfair dismissal

    Post edited by The Spider on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 kaymin
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    ^^^^ most of this is wrong or n/a - As an employer, if you no longer need someone in a particular job you may be entitled to make a redundancy. This could be because your organisation is closing or becoming smaller or because you have less work available. You should be able to show that the job in question will no longer exist in order for a redundancy to be genuine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 The Spider
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    Ha no it’s not, all very accurate been involved in a few redundancies at this stage, only applies to people who have more than a years service it has to be said.

    If you are making a redundancy it’s the position not the person that’s redundant, so you can’t drop a software engineer and hire another one, if you make the job redundant the job is gone, and restrictions on rehiring apply.

    to your point it’s essentially about jobs no longer existing and that’s fair enough that’s a reason for redundancy, but there has to be a months consultation,he hadn’t done that and it’s debatable as to whether the jobs are required or not it seems a bit scattergun, he’s absolutely open to unfair dismissals across the board, he didn’t follow procedure.

    Post edited by The Spider on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    I agree. However, at this stage it's a choice between one's knowing that they will never own a house or praying for a crash and hoping the one is not among those who face financial ruin. It's not a good place to be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,439 landofthetree
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    Even in the worst of times 80%+ will still have a job.


    I know loads of people who were first time buyers after the last crash.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,192 OEP
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    I believe they are following the proper procedures, just because Musk says something - it doesn't mean that's what is happening behind the scenes



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,806 MrMusician18
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    It was very hard to get credit after the last crash. That's what limits people's ability to buy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,273 The Spider
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    I know a few people in there, a shitshow by all accounts, and it’s pretty much what you think happened, happened.

    No consultation period, people locked out of their computers randomly picked people, all the head guys quitting.

    no two ways about it he tried the American way here, there’ll be unfair dismissal claims all over the place because the payoff is terrible, gardening leave for three months (a lot of people have three month notice periods anyway this would be pretty standard) and then just two months salary.

    a lot will go for unfair dismissals claims, like I say normally a company looks for voluntary redundancy or to go for the ‘package’ because it makes it easier, much harder to argue unfair dismissal if you put up your hand to get the money.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,241 Royale with Cheese
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    Put a bid in admittedly a fair bit under the asking, got told this was an "insult". I pointed out it had been on the market for months with no offers but this didn't matter because "we'll get there". I was preparing another vastly improved bid but eventually got told to offer the asking or extremely close to it or basically fúck off. No softening according to this estate agent anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,566 Claw Hammer
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    One swallow doesn't make a summer. One thick vendor soesn't make a market. What I notice is that Bidx1 has an enormous number of properties listed as "available". That indicates they properties failed to meet the reserve at auction. I haven't seen anything like this number of "availables" after a Bidx1 auction before. There used to be just a sprinkling, now there seem to be pages.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 Beigepaint
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    A couple of years ago I was living in England, after a years there I moved home and brought my car home, which I had paid about £4000 for in around 2014.

    I vrtd it and drove it for about a year but I didn’t really need it and the tax was nearly €700 so decided to get rid of it and get something cheaper to run.

    I put it up on done deal for €3500 for a quick sale - I knew it was worth around €4000 but I wanted to get rid of it quick. The ad sat on donedeal for about a month with no calls or texts.

    I knew the car was worth €4000 and the pictures were good - there was no issue with the ad.

    The sellers you mentioned are here.

    They know the house is worth €x even though not a single person wants to buy it at that price.

    The next stage in my car selling journey was when I dropped the price to €3000 (with no interest) and then a few weeks later to €2500 (with no interest) and then €2000 when it finally sold.

    The estate agent will be learning a bit more about insults over the next few months.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    An aunt of mine has had a ruin of a house in the West on the market for nearly 18 months at this stage. The house needs at least 100k of work to make it livable, but she has it on the market for the price of what a perfectly good house in the same town would sell for. Some people are just delusional as to what they can sell something for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,241 Royale with Cheese
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    The house next door which is admittedly in worse nick sold for 900 after going sale agreed back in June. They appear to be extremely hung up on that, and not the fact they've had little to no interest in months.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,075 Allinall
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    It all depends on who is selling and why.

    If it’s an investor cashing out, they will wait for the right price or just not sell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 171 Beigepaint
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    In a falling market, the right time to sell is immediately.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 FedoraTheAura
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    I placed a bid on a property about 2 months ago, above asking price. Others submitted bids and a bidding war began.

    I kept an eye on the online platform and it went sale agreed. A couple of weeks later the sale agreed price had dropped quite a bit, I imagine the highest bidder pulled out.

    Now it’s back up for sale again.

    Interesting, whether people are finding they can’t get finance or are backing away to see what the market will do…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,075 Allinall
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    Not true.

    in a falling market it can often be better to hold, rather than sell.

    Don’t forget, the rental market isn’t falling.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    Bidding wars are not born from reason. I've seen a few of them start on houses that I've looked at, but I never got involved. The worst that I personally saw came from that benighted entity known as Auctionera. A house across the road from my mother (Dublin 5) went sale agreed at about 150k over its original asking price of 500k. It's now back on the market with another estate agent for 500k again.

    I think that these fall through because the "winners" of these particular rat races come off the highs of adrenaline and realise that paying that much over the odds for something is perhaps not the wisest thing to do.

    In my opinion, there needs to be some sort of regulation to prevent these bidding wars. If they want bids, an auction is always an option, but just taking "bids" from someone who may not even have the finance to follow up on the offer is simply a despicable way to do business.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 FedoraTheAura
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    The property I was talking about was actually with Auctioneera.

    I think there’s a lot of problems with online platforms. Agents say it’s to streamline the process but it also changes the process for the bidder. It becomes almost like a game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 herbalplants
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    I am getting ready to put an offer on a house in tomorrow just like you did and I am prepared to be rejected. But honestly, I know that is what is worth in the current market and won't budge. It won't be this one, another one will come. Plenty of fish in the sea.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 herbalplants
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    You are wrong, Auctioneera vets the bidders, they are required to lodge documents in order to open an account and bid.

    It is true something went wrong after, possible.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 FedoraTheAura
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    I’m registered with pretty much all of the online bidding platforms and while you’re partially correct, all of the platforms typically only need proof of address/ID and a copy of your mortgage approval. You do not need to include documentation on money you are being gifted etc, so it’s very light vetting. They’ve no idea whether or not you have the full finance in place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    Well then they have changed since last I used the platform. All that I had to do was upload a AIP document with blanked out figures, and I was granted the ability to bid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,386 Homer
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    From personal experience of dealing with that crowd the word cowboys would be a component 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,502 Padre_Pio
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    The sale of my last rented house fell through because the highest bidder hadn't even gotten mortgage approval. Waste of time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,963 Large bottle small glass
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    I put a house for sale in a nice part of cork city in July.

    Went sale agreed within a month for 15k above asking. I accepted as buyer was a cash buyer.

    Bought for 175 in 2002 and sold for 340.

    Still took 3 months to close it out, solicitors live in a different world.

    Wife also sold family home with her sisters. That went a bit nuts; listed at 300k and went for 55k more. Very modest bungalow where we lived for last 5 years, but in a nice area of a large prosperous town even if pretty rough ☺️

    We did up the garage, for small money for a yoga studio. That seemed to drive things with lots of people valuing the extra space.

    I still don't know if selling was the right option for Cork house but market wasn't exactly hot in terms of bidding and I've no insight on where market is going but rising interest rates with energy uncertainty have to be a damper



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 767 dontmindme
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    I've put in a bid on Auctioneera and all they asked for was an email address.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,029 RichardAnd
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    I did a viewing with them in 2021. The agent who set up the view misspelled the name of the area in the email and called me "Michael" when I arrived at the appointed time (not my name). When I asked him questions regarding the property and the area, he was unable to tell me anything. IT's a charlatan organisation that is bad for buyers and sellers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 625 Cal4567
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    A bit late coming to this but I know personally young people who have left the dysfunctional nowhere to rent Ireland this year for plenty of supply, compared to Ireland, in the UK and Australia.

    Unless you are in need of somewhere to stay, Ireland is a very unique property market. The 70% or so adequately housed continue to not appreciate this very unique set of circumstances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,066 HerrKuehn
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    What is it that you think is unique about the Irish property market?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,851 wassie
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    Would agree with you, but your comments only relate to the rental market. Latest IT article reports on how bad it is in Dublin.

    But in terms of house sales, starting to see consistant price changes in the order of 5-8% downwards. Also houses being listed and not getting any offers, but owners still holding out and refusing to entertain bids under asking - only lasts so long before a property becomes 'stale' as we move away from a sellers market.

    EAs are finally having to do some work if they want to get sales and 'motivate' their vendors and actually follow up with prospective buyers.



This discussion has been closed.
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