US Midterms 2022 - Read OP before posting

Cody montana · 13-11-2022 9:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870479#Comment_119870479

So a few days ago you claimed it’s Biden’s fault democrats were going to get annihilated due to a culture war.

And it was due to trumps policies.

But the opposite happened, and it’s Trumps fault.

Yeah?

francois · 13-11-2022 9:48pm

Top trolling

https://twitter.com/maricopacounty/status/1591527781371887618?s=20&t=F4oQQHGqKgihi0tFumIJHw

13-11-2022 9:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870581#Comment_119870581

The evidence suggested that the Democrats were going to be annihilated. Historical precedent alone suggested the same. Had the red wave transpired, then yes, the result would have been due to the incompetence of Joe Biden and his historically low approval rating at this phase of the political cycle.

However, the polls turned out to be wrong. Though people were - and are - upset with Biden (see his approval rating), far greater factors seem to have preoccupied US voters. Abortion, and Trump's rhetoric, to name just two. This is the reality of what happened.

It doesn't mean that Joe Biden is suddenly popular. It doesn't mean that Woke is endorsed en masse. It just means that US voters had a set of priorities in this election. In 2024 at the General Election, that set of priorities will change. Biden is likely to suffer, and suffer badly. Especially if DeSantis makes it through and not Donald Trump.

Your posts lack nuance. That's because you seem unwilling to admit that at least some of your position may be inaccurate. That's the same kind of lack of nuance that characterised many of the positions of Mr Trump by the way, ironically.

briany · 13-11-2022 9:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870562#Comment_119870562

DeSantis can't be 'installed' as the future of the GOP without the requisite grassroots support. He can do one of two things, as I see it - 1. He can attempt to forge a coalition of moderate Republicans and independents, thereby cutting the Trump base out of the equation entirely, but that will require him significantly moderating his stance on a variety of issues, or he can cosy up to Trump in order to keep that base on side and hope that his very novelty as a candidate who is not Trump means the vote against him is not mobilised.

And that's all assuming that he can overcome Trump in a primary. If Trump senses that the Republican party is fixing to try and abandon him, he will go ham on the party and he has the numbers to cause the party serious problems.

Overheal · 13-11-2022 9:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870598#Comment_119870598

The comments are both refreshing and hydrating.

13-11-2022 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870600#Comment_119870600

Let's assume that Trump will act in that manner.

The choice for the GOP is either to muscle your way through his attempt at destroying the Republicans, or to allow Trump to run again - lose, and he definitely would lose - and claim the election was stolen again. Leading to greater division, and worse prospects for the GOP thereafter.

Faced with two thoroughly undesirable options, I'd rather the GOP opted for the former rather than the latter.

Cody montana · 13-11-2022 9:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870599#Comment_119870599

You are the one that main that claim, not me.

You turned out to be wrong too.

Overheal · 13-11-2022 9:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870599#Comment_119870599

Or the polls are again wrong

https://twitter.com/rmayemsinger/status/1591699177716977664?s=46&t=6eqpiCqtTh7sN47y4L9j-Q

I’d suggest that fewer people approve of the Job Biden has actually done under filibusters etc, than they do support Joe Biden being the president or Democrats holding control of Congress post Jan 6 or whatever. Very little nuance in polling.

13-11-2022 10:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870642#Comment_119870642

If we start assuming that all polling is false, we're left with a belief system without evidence.

I know belief systems without evidence have become pretty popular these days, but I'll stick with the polling - under the assumption that they will alter the way they conduct polling going forward.

There was plenty of polling that turned out to be right. For example: Ron DeSantis in the midterms and his success.

So let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Sparko · 13-11-2022 10:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870599#Comment_119870599

Do the same people who got the polls so wrong also determine the president's approval rate?

EOQRTL · 13-11-2022 10:05pm

Hopefully we can dump Trump and get behind DeSantis for 24. America badly needs a leader of that ilk.

13-11-2022 10:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870676#Comment_119870676

If that were a good point, I would have thanked it.

For the record, I didn't thank it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870678#Comment_119870678

Agreed.

I'd be very surprised if Trump decides to announce his candidacy next Tuesday. All the evidence suggests it would be a total waste of time. His egomaniacal narcissism is what stands in the way, though I'm hoping those intelligent around him - and I'm sure there are a few - will somehow manage to dissuade him. There's also the question of whether Trump will announce his candidacy only to leverage his popularity with the GOP voter base as a means to drop current investigations into his past conduct. If Trump gets pardon and paves the way for DeSantis, then it's a win-win as far as the GOP and Trump are concerned.

That said, these midterm elections have proven that the future of the GOP lies with Governor DeSantis.

Trumpism is dead. He only has himself to blame.

Sparko · 13-11-2022 10:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870706#Comment_119870706

I was asking a genuine question, not sure why you felt the need to be so condescending in your reply?

13-11-2022 10:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870731#Comment_119870731

Perhaps because I answered your exact question four minutes before you asked it.

Muahahaha · 13-11-2022 11:05pm

Fierce dose of RINO-itis going around this thread at the moment amongst Trumpists here now declaring their support for de Sanctimonious. Maybe they got sick of all the winning like he predicted?

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1240325221938315270?lang=en

Its Trump all the way lads, his POTUS declaration is on Tuesday so now you get to watch the man you blindly backed for the last 6 years wreck the Republican party.

Billy Mays · 13-11-2022 11:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832862#Comment_119832862

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870678#Comment_119870678

🤔

.

Cody montana · 13-11-2022 11:58pm

Another house seat went to republicans.

19 left.

Hungry Burger · 14-11-2022 12:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870937#Comment_119870937

It will be certainly interesting to see how it plays out if it indeed does turn out to be a race between Trump and De Santis. On the one hand, Trump is no doubt still extremely popular among the republican base, but I think a large part of his popularity in 2016 was how unorthodox and non conventional he was, people are well used to Trump and his messaging now which could play into De Santis hand, There’s definitely a bit of Trump fatigue going on there.

I think the media also helped Trump a lot as he was constantly being covered in the media far more than any other of the republican nominees, his message was on the news cycle 24 hours a day, I think they have learned from this and we will see a lot more coverage of De Santis, Trump also had free reign on social media which he doesn’t have anymore, further stifling his messaging.

Even if Trump was to win the republican nomination for 2024, if the Democrats were to run a sensible centrist candidate who could stave off the farther left elements of the Democratic party, they would easily beat Trump in the general imho.

briany · 14-11-2022 12:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870999#Comment_119870999

The erstwhile Trump supporters haven't really abandoned Trumpism. They just know that its figurehead has become too toxic to get it over the line, so they're hoping Desantis is the spoonful of sugar that will make enough people swallow the poison again. Trumpism in a slicker packaging.

Hope Trump and Desantis tear each other apart and demonstrate that their mutually hateful and combative brand of politics is not the way forward.

xxxxxxl · 14-11-2022 12:37am

Really going down to the wire have Mid terms ever taken this long ?

14-11-2022 9:50am

It's going to be an incredible couple of years.

Might even trump de 2016 election cycle.

everlast75 · 14-11-2022 11:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119870706#Comment_119870706

"though I'm hoping those intelligent around him - and I'm sure there are a few - will somehow manage to dissuade him."

Utter, utter nonsense. You'd want to be living under a rock on Mars to not know that all Trump ever surrounded himself with were fawning, obsequious yes men.

You might have well said "hopefully, I'll win the lotto tomorrow and then I'll not have to go to work tomorrow".

His supporters have been telling us for years that this guy is playing chess while the dems were playing checkers. Now, they're telling you that hopefully someone else will make him see sense.

What a complete and utter shi1tshow.

How about you and others start listening to what we've been saying since 2015, disregard your jaundiced views of Boards being an echo chamber, and accept the facts that have been said about this guy from the very, very start.

He is a conman, a grifter, an idiot, a racist and an extremely vain and insecure bully. His "success" is an illusion, he is loyal to no one, and he will destroy the republican party, and if it wasn't for the democratic party and a small amount of republicans, he would have transformed America into an authoritarian state. Thankfully, just enough turned out in the midterms listened to sense to stymie him and his schemes.

14-11-2022 11:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872022#Comment_119872022

Not sure why you're directing that tirade against me, as I have repeatedly condemned Donald Trump, anti-democratic rhetoric, and mindless MAGA-ism in general.

You're attacking a straw man.

everlast75 · 14-11-2022 12:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872083#Comment_119872083

it's not a tirade. It is a series of facts.

And the reason I quoted you, was because you were contemplating a scenario where 45 would listen to someone else's advice. That is one of the most politically naïve things I have ever read online. Someone with even a screed of political knowledge or even pop trivia would know that Trump is incapable of it.

14-11-2022 12:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872198#Comment_119872198

A tirade is a "...a long, angry speech of criticism or accusation". That's exactly what was levelled in that post, and against me.

But the idea that Donald Trump never listens to anyone, ever, at any time, is for the birds. An egomaniacal narcissist he may be, but there comes a point when his advisors and team need to play their role. Trump doesn't know it all. You're manufacturing this idea that somehow Trump is completely isolated, and makes decisions on his own, without any evidence or advice given to him - ever. It's just nonsense. At that level of the presidency, there is a entire school of advisors on many complex topics and Trump would surely have had to have listened to those advisors, at some point, at some time. He was only a businessman, after all. On the back of these midterm election results, I have no doubt that Trump is being counselled on his prospects - doomed prospects - at the next election.

Your "analysis" is just what you want to believe rather than what's actually the case. And I say that as someone critical of Trump myself.

You're allowing unchecked hyperbole to take over. And it's not a good look.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 12:43pm

I think we've learned a few things during this election.

Polling utterly lacks nuance and asks lots of binary questions that don't really tell the full story.

For example the question "Are you happy with the job Joe Biden is doing?" is categorically NOT the same as "Would you like to replace Joe Biden with a GOP person?"

What is also clear is that, not surprisingly people vote about tangible things that impact them day to day and vote for people that show actual plans for how to address those things.

The GOP has spent years with absolutely nothing in their platform about "kitchen table" items as they are called - They scream "Look at Inflation" but put forward absolutely zero plans on what they would do different. This is repeated across all those elements.

The closest the GOP came to a policy platform was the stuff released by Rick Scott which basically told everyone that they were going to increase taxes on the poor and gut social security.

The GOP were presented with an open goal and didn't even manage to kick the ball let alone get it on target.

They lost the Senate (again) and at best they will take control of the house by perhaps 1 or 2 seats and even that is still in the balance.

That is a shockingly poor performance and whilst some of the Senate and State level elections (Governor, State Sec etc.) can be blamed on the Trump/MAGA effect and him championing piss-poor candidates, it's the House performance that is the most damning.

That performance is largely down to the absolute vacuum that is the GOP policy platform.

The answer to the voters question of "How are you going to help me?" isn't "The other side are terrible!!!" but the GOP don't seem to understand that.

Brussels Sprout · 14-11-2022 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119869749#Comment_119869749

Not unless they win the House as well it isn't.

The American system is set up in such a way as to make logjam the norm these days. Here's what a party can legislate for if they have:

President + House majority + 60 Senators: They have free reign to pass pretty much any laws they like (so long as they're deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court). They can nominate + appoint federal judges (including supreme court judges). Obama had this for the first year of his presidency
President + House majority + 50-59 Senators: They are now constrained by the filibuster in the Senate. They can still pass certain financial bills on a simple majority via the process of Reconciliation but those are limited to budgetary bills and can only be used once per year (this was how the Inflation Reduction Act was passed earlier this year). They can nominate + appoint federal judges (including supreme court judges). Biden & Trump both had this for the first 2 years of their presidencies.
President + 50-59 Senators: Cannot pass any laws unilaterally as these can now be blocked or voted down in The House. They can nominate + appoint federal judges (including supreme court judges). This was the position Trump was in for the final 2 years of his Presidency.
President: Can only issue Executive Orders. These are limited in scope and power and can be reversed by the next President. This was the position Obama was in for the final 2 years of his Presidency

So it looks like the Democrats will end up in #3 which is not that strong but it's a hell of a lot stronger than #4, which is where they were expected to land.

In #3 the Republicans will still be able to block any permanent laws from being made and they also have powers of impeachment as well as to hold hearings on all sorts of matters. For example, Republicans used their power in the House, under Obama, to hold 6 different hearings into the 2012 Benghazi attacks.

duploelabs · 14-11-2022 1:01pm

Trump listens to people has to be the funniest misunderstood statements I've heard since he stepped into the political sphere.

Like the time he drew on the projected course of a hurricane so it would go along with his own prediction and he wouldn't look bad

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/04/trump-hurricane-dorian-alabama-sharpie-map

Or the time he contradicted his medical experts to 'put light inside the body' while those same experts were in the room while he gave a **** press conference

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52399464

There are many many more to pick from, buit to say that trump listens to anyone other than his own ego is laughable and delusional

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 1:11pm

I think the weakness of the potential House majority means that they will be less able to clog things up with spurious investigations etc.

McCarthy (if he even manages to win the leadership position) will find it next to impossible to keep the various factions within the House GOP aligned so I think they'll really struggle to do anything.

If as expected they only end up with a low single digit majority they'll struggle to do anything - talk of "impeaching Biden" will be off the table I think.

Penn · 14-11-2022 1:15pm

I think there have definitely been times when enough of his advisors have talked him out of some things, or where he's simply deferred to others. But those times are a minority, and often weighed against what benefits him the most rather than what's the right thing to do based on the knowledge/experience of his advisors. And when push comes to shove, he'll replace the advisors with people who'll simply just tell him what he wants to hear. No better case in point than everything to do with challenging the election results and leading to Jan 6th.

14-11-2022 1:17pm

He also had this brainwave...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/26/donald-trump-suggests-nuking-hurricanes-to-stop-them-hitting-america-report

which has, for decades, been ridiculed as a profoundly stupid idea.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 1:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872487#Comment_119872487

I think that's only happened when they had to explain to him that whatever "brainwave" he'd had was actually illegal or physically impossible.

The idea of him changing his mind on the basis of mature reflection and logical consideration of the facts is hard to see to be honest.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 1:26pm

Genuine question.

If the GOP do take the House , but only by a couple of seats (I saw one projection giving them only a single seat majority) what happens if Pelosi was to win the House leadership election?

It's not to imagine a scenario where all the Democrat members vote for her , but one or two on the GOP side either vote for someone other than McCarthy or just abstain.

Could that happen and how would it work in practice in terms of committee chairs etc. ??

Podge_irl · 14-11-2022 1:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872555#Comment_119872555

Is abstention enough or does the leader need an outright majority? No matter the dissension in the ranks I can't see a single Republican voting for Pelosi.

That being said, it will be two years of chaos as McCarthy simply won't have the confidence of a majority and you never get through a term without a couple of seats being up for grabs. In a knife-edge congress any special elections will be carnage.

everlast75 · 14-11-2022 1:37pm

McCarthy would have to walk the line between appeasing the crazies and distancing himself from trumpism.

If I were him, I wouldn't take it. The 2 years of that stress would finish me off!

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872579#Comment_119872579

I've no idea of the actual rules - I would assume that an outright majority is required rather than a plurality of votes if a few were to abstain or vote for "Trump for House Speaker" or whatever , but the damage of having to go to a 2nd round of voting because he couldn't get everyone aligned would be terrible for McCarthy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872595#Comment_119872595

I agree but he will absolutely take it , it's his lifes dream and this is realistically his one and only shot at it.

If they fail to take the House , he's out for good and will lose the minority leadership role.

Even if they win and he manages to win the Leadership race , I think the in-fighting will ruin him and he'll get booted in 2024 win or lose.

Ten of Swords · 14-11-2022 2:20pm

Mod - These is a thread for discussing Trump, if your post isn't discussing him in the context of the midterms please use the other thread. Thanks

everlast75 · 14-11-2022 2:34pm

*post edited - I actually believed this was a theory*

This story from Swan - is this more election denial? What's the thinking behind this?

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1592132077184782337?s=20&t=w6sWHpknviUQXyTmCeQBIg

NSAman · 14-11-2022 2:43pm

Well thank feck the mid-terms are over. How many negative tv adverts can you watch without wanting to actually throw something at the tv?

Trump is a liability! Biden is inept….America is F***ed!

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 2:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872824#Comment_119872824

That guy is the editor of the BabylonBee - a sort of conservative version of The Onion.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872824#Comment_119872824

I think that the leadership elections are supposed to happen next week which given the Georgia run-off and possible recounts etc. in several House elections would mean that they aren't voting with a full deck so they are looking to delay until all seats are filled

These are the internal "party level" elections to choose who is the House/Senate leader for the given party.

The actual vote in the Senate/House doesn't happen until January sometime.

14-11-2022 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872579#Comment_119872579

Yep, they need an absolute majority.

Igotadose · 14-11-2022 2:58pm

herschelwalker.com is available still.

Not much content yet, but the landing page is pretty amusing. I expect they'll get contributions before someone gets them to shut down. Someone should buy 'realherschelwalker' too

martingriff · 14-11-2022 3:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119868759#Comment_119868759

If we did great it's all me. If not it was not me but others. I bet like Cal Thomas last week you blame the Democrats who but in money to the primaries so extremists or novices were nominated

Overheal · 14-11-2022 3:04pm

Nevada becomes the 2nd state to adopted Ranked Choice Voting.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1592140297902780418?s=46&t=4VxLvR2CerYHeNKKH-DOeQ

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 3:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872995#Comment_119872995

That's very significant in terms of 2024.

Overheal · 14-11-2022 3:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873002#Comment_119873002

It’s significant in terms of the future too. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the RCV seed was planted because of TFG.

Within 10 years I could see many more other states adopting this, they just want to see it in action first.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 3:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873013#Comment_119873013

Actually just reading..

It seems that it has to be voted on again in 2024 before it becomes law??

So 2024 will be under current rules and then if passed again the following midterms would be RCV.

Weird to have to pass twice.

14-11-2022 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872995#Comment_119872995

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873002#Comment_119873002

Not significant at all for 2024 - it was a citizen's proposal, which in Nevada, means it has to pass two ballots. The second one will be in 2024, so it would only take effect from 2026 (and only if it passes in 2024)

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 3:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873048#Comment_119873048

Spotted that after the fact.

So because it was brought forward by the citizens it has to be voted on twice , but if it had been tabled by the legislature it would have only needed the one vote?

Seems an unusual approach , you'd have thought that if it reached whatever the required threshold was for the "citizen proposal" that should be enough.

US Midterms 2022 - Read OP before posting

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