BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? threadbans in OP

Strazdas · 12-11-2022 2:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864218#Comment_119864218

The Tories have been held hostage by the hard right / far right wing of the party for well over a decade. Cameron was insane to think he could ever unify the party by placating them. They got greedy, kept demanding more and more until they ended up running the UK - with predictably calamitous results (the events of 2022).

12-11-2022 3:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119865158#Comment_119865158

What's "far-right" about the ERG? What's "far-right" about Brexit voters? (Was Tony Benn "far-right"?)

It's a significant chunk of the conservative vote that Sunak must appeal to (and to some extent, is).

Throwing around silly labels like "far-right" is the height of absolute absurdity.

12-11-2022 3:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119865405#Comment_119865405

Brexit voters are a very mixed bag. I agree that “far right” should be reserved for BNP types. But ERG for sure are further right than the tastes of anyone other than frothing at the mouth telegraph and mail readers. Conservatives are better off letting them drift off into whatever new party they think they can make a success of

12-11-2022 4:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119865457#Comment_119865457

Personally speaking, I think some high-profile Conservative MPs should consider joining Reform UK.

That would give Tice's party some veneer of legitimacy. Let's not forget that many Brexit voters are furious about how Johnson was stabbed in the back. If I were a Tory MP - particularly a Brexit-supporting MP - I'd seriously consider moving over to Reform UK before the next election. Tice's party is perfectly positioned to hoover up disaffected red wall voters (as well as voters concerned about migration in general). Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are stock globalists. They've dragged the Conservative Party back to Cameronian times - not completely, but more so than before. That's why Tice's party is surging in the polls.

Quiescent Tory MPs need to make up their minds before the next election. Better to keep your seat under Reform UK than to sacrifice that seat at the political altar of Sunak and Hunt's globalist Conservative Party. I have every confidence that Reform UK can mushroom its support into double digits and, should that happen, I've no doubt that some Tory MPs will seriously consider making that very transition.

Reform UK now up to 9%.

https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1591075336858796032

Peregrinus · 14-11-2022 2:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119864671#Comment_119864671

Huh? Cameron's centrism is what history will remember him for most kindly - same-sec marriage, being able to construct a functional coalition with the Liberals. His legitimising of brexitry by calling the referendum, so jeopardising his country's interests in an attempt to solve an internal party problem, is one of the things history will damn him for. But he's still going to be regarded as a better prime minister than at least his three immediate successors.

If Sunak panders to the Tory right, he will lose the next election very, very badly.* And he will deserve to.

*[He's going to lose it anyway; the only question is how badly.]

quokula · 14-11-2022 3:43am

The percentage change suggests that Reform UK are taking ad many if not more voters from Labour as the Tories.

If I were to oversimplify I’d imagine this cohort is largely traditional white working class Labour voters, who didn’t align with an increasingly socially liberal Labour Party, who favoured Brexit and who then gave the Tories their vote in 2019. They’ve since seen the damage the Tories have done, switched voting intention back to Labour, but now Reform UK are wooing them.

Labour may have as much if not more to gain than the Tories from going after these voters, and Starmer has shown he’s not above that with some of his attempts to court nationalists with flag waving and the like.

Peregrinus · 14-11-2022 4:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871420#Comment_119871420

You can over-analyse these things. This is the Omnisis poll, which is a small poll (c. 1200 respondents) conducted very frequently (at intervals of between a week and a fortnight). The rise in support for Reform from % to 9% looks astonishing — a 50% jump in Reform's vote — and it appears to have happened in just 8 days (between 3 Nov and 8 Nov). That should set your sceptical alarm bells ringing.

And your scepticism would be justified. Because of the small sample size the margin of error for this poll is unusually high — 3.1%, and more for "crossbreaks with very small sub-samples" (which is jargon for the groups of respondents indicating support for minor parties).

In fact, all of the shifts in support for all parties shown in this poll are within the margin of error, so if you wanted to summarise the findings of those poll in one sentence it would be "not much change since the last poll 8 days ago", which is not really a very surprising conclusion.

The shift most likely to be meaningful is not the 3% rise for Reform, but the 2% fall for Labour. Although it's a smaller shift, it's in a much larger sub-group (Labour supporters) so is more likely to mean something. But it's still within the margin of error. And, in another sense, even if it means something, it doesn't mean anything important. The Labour margin over the Tories has fallen from 24% to 23%; that's still a bloodbath for the Tories, if repeated at an election. It would be the largest margin of victory for any party since the Tories won the 1931 general election with a margin of 25.6% over Labour, winning 470 seats to Labour's 46.

Bass Reeves · 14-11-2022 10:44am

Call the ERG what you like they are an extreme. There was a similar issue before Cameron became leader. There was three Tory part leaders in 5-6 years. Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard, the last two like Johnson and Truss taking the Consertives further right and losing the center vote.

Its similar with Corbyn in Labour he took labour further left and made them.unelectable. you just have to look at the Republican party in the UK where MAGA extremism is also hampering that party. It is quite possible a Congress controlled by these extremists will benefit the Democrats in 2024 as they concentrate on revenge against Biden instead of policy

Johnson was not stabbed in the back. His position was untenable and it got to the stage where someone had to weild the knife. The Consertives suffer as many political parties do now by handing control of electing a leader to there party members who often have little understanding of the reality of power. There can often be an extreme within the party and they can decide the election. Truss only got 50 votes in the first round of the Tory contest was in second place throughout and only got to the run off because of getting votes from the extremes.

The British people never voted for the extreme type of Brexit that the ERG tried to impose on the country. It important to remember that

Leroy42 · 14-11-2022 11:01am

The British people did vote for an extreme type of Brexit, it was all in the deal that Johnson was elected on in 2019. Before that election one could argue that the ERG types had hijacked Brexit to their own version, but the UK were given the choice at that election and gave Johnson and 80 seat majority off the back of it.

Yes, it is clear that the No side lied and undertook some pretty dodgy practices in the campaign, but the electorate have had two chances since then to call a halt to the madness and have decided to back it instead.

It is therefore hard to argue that the voters don't want exactly what they have gotten.

Bass Reeves · 14-11-2022 11:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871928#Comment_119871928

You are incorrect. The UK had signed a withdrawal agreement before that election. The y had to agree the minute details during the following 12 months to formally leave ( that was there choice they could have managed the exit over a longer period). After the deal was complete Johnson wanted to tear up the complete agreement.

The British people did not vote for the extremes the ERG wanted. The ERG tail has wagged the Tory dog for the last six years. Sunak needs to sideline them completely.

Leroy42 · 14-11-2022 11:32am

The overall nature of the deal was well known. The oven ready deal. Get Brexit Done. The special place for NI, the border controls, the lack of FoM. All of this well known and was part of the deal.

Being a member of the Sm or CU was categorically not on the table. Once that decision is made the rest is just a consequence.

The public know that they were voting for. All of the MP's that tried to stand up for a much closer union were voted out of office, or kick out of their party. The public had no issue with that.

The TOry party ha ve the ultimate responsibility for this, but the public also need to take a long hard look at themselves. They were given two chances after the ref to shape the way the deal was going to go. They made it clear they were perfectly happy to see Johnson deliver the extreme version on Brexit.

14-11-2022 11:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872065#Comment_119872065

"Extreme" is just a word that people use to smear anyone or anything they happen to disagree with, even if it's a perfectly moderate position.

"Extreme" Brexit, and above, "ERG are extremists". No, not "extreme version of Brexit", rather, "The British people opted for a version of Brexit that doesn't align with my political perspective".

The word has lost all reasonable meaning in much political discourse.

Leroy42 · 14-11-2022 12:29pm

Well, based on a range of Brexit options, ranging from the closest to the most distant relationship, the ERG want the most extreme. As in the furthest to a particular side.

There can be no debate about that really. The ERG, and then the public, took the most extreme version of Brexit that have have been taken and made it look like the only option.

FraserburghFreddie · 14-11-2022 2:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872303#Comment_119872303

I favoured a close relationship with the EU(if there had to be a brexit)but as I recall, the prospect of BRINO was viewed with gloating glee on the various brexit related forums here(which,with hindsight,doesn't appear to represent the general feeling of most of Europe, certainly not brussels)Despite that,it would have been(and still is) the best brexit option for the UK imo.

Strazdas · 14-11-2022 2:11pm

Former UKIP and BNP voters clearly voted for Johnson and the Tories in 2019 - that would equate to around 5m of their votes.

Nobody is suggesting that the Conservative Party per se is hard right / far right, but they definitely have that element among their ranks. Also, note how Farage has positioned himself as an Enoch Powell / BNP type in the last year or so. Patel and Braverman would certainly be of the same ilk.

ancapailldorcha · 14-11-2022 2:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872688#Comment_119872688

No, there wasn't.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872712#Comment_119872712

The whole party isn't far right but it's Overton window has certainly shifted in that direction and the right wing of that party is currently running the show.

14-11-2022 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872712#Comment_119872712

What a lamentable attempt to smear the Conservative Party by association with the fascist BNP.

For some perspective, the BNP collected:

510 votes in the 2019 General Election.
4,642 votes in the 2017 General Election.
1,667 votes in the 2015 General Election.

UKIP came along in the early 2010s and disinfected politics by taking in the people who weren't fascists but who had moderate views on immigration and so on. The hardcore, actual fascists - the white supremacists and so on - remained within the BNP.

So UKIP fine, there's definitely a intimate relationship there.

But to throw out the BNP vote, as if the Conservatives are hoovering up millions of fascists, is beyond the pale.

14-11-2022 3:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872712#Comment_119872712

The sooner the right of the Tories, and it’s support, break away into Reform the better IMO. Then we can see some clarity in what people actually support instead of sniping within the party, and among it’s supporters, about what a conservative is.

and IMO it ain’t Rees-Mogg and Braverman. It’s the likes of Rory Stewart and those others who were purged by Johnson

14-11-2022 3:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873097#Comment_119873097

Rory Stewart? The man who hosts a podcast with Alistair Campbell.

Good riddance.

14-11-2022 3:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873104#Comment_119873104

Yes, in which they disagree but engage like normal humans

good riddance to you lot into that new party

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 3:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873027#Comment_119873027

Who do you think those ~4,000 BNP voters from 2017 voted for in 2019?

They went somewhere.

The general point is that as someone described it earlier, the Tory party "overton window" has categorically shifted to the right in recent years.

That doesn't mean that they are all now extremists , but it does mean that they have become more tolerant and accepting of those extremists within the wider party ranks.

ancapailldorcha · 14-11-2022 3:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873116#Comment_119873116

That's how you can tell that the extremists are firmly entrenched - all dissent must be shut down.

14-11-2022 3:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873123#Comment_119873123

Let's assume you're right, and that all 4,000 BNP voters opted for the Conservatives in 2019.

The Conservative Party amassed 13,966,454 in that election, meaning the BNP vote was 0.028% of their overall result. Nor did that 0.028% shift the Overton window. No political party would change tack based on this kind of absurd percentage.

You can see why I think this is desperate stuff. It's bordering on the embarrassing.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2022 3:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873148#Comment_119873148

BNP voters are obviously at the extreme end of spectrum and they likely migrated to UKIP or Reform parties rather than the Tories , but the fact remains that the Tory party have shifted towards the right in recent years.

Both in terms of policy and public rhetoric.

For example - Do you think that Suella Braverman or people of a similar viewpoint would have been in cabinet under Cameron or Hague before him??

Strazdas · 14-11-2022 4:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873027#Comment_119873027

A simple question - what party did England's racists, bigots, xenophobes, anti-immigration types etc vote for in the GE 2019? It surely can't have been Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.

ancapailldorcha · 14-11-2022 4:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873208#Comment_119873208

Remember that Farage stood several of his candidates down for 2019 so it's a given that those votes went to the Tories.

joe40 · 14-11-2022 4:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871928#Comment_119871928

I agree up to a point, The Brits did return a massive tory majority in the HoC but because of the first past the post system this was achieved on something like 44% of the vote. precise number may be incorrect but I think it was definitely less than 50% of the electorate.

Another referendum on the actual Brexit deal on offer would have been more democratic. (may well have given the same result though) bearing in mind the original referendum passed by a slim majority with no actual details of the post brexit landscape.

ancapailldorcha · 14-11-2022 4:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873381#Comment_119873381

42.6% IIRC, 13.96 million people out of a country of nearly 70 million. About 20%. Utterly disgraceful.

14-11-2022 4:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873381#Comment_119873381

People point to that huge majority as being an overwhelming brexit supporting vote. The reality is that the Tories, at 43%, got only 30% more votes than a labour party led by the most lunatic socialist leader in its history. A guy who wouldn’t even sing the national anthem. Hardly a ringing endorsement for the Tories, and the false picture that that election gave (including giving Johnson an inflated opinion of his popularity) is now being wiped away

Akrasia · 14-11-2022 5:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119865405#Comment_119865405

The ERG are proto-fascists. - They're not totalitarians (yet), but the people in leadership roles in the ERG absolutely would take absolute power if they could manoeuvre their way to grabbing it. Their policies are not too far off the kinds of policies that Viktor Orban enacted to ensure that he would never lose an election again. (And the Tories voted to not Censure him in 2018 when they still had voting rights as MEPs)

They are a shadow group who refuse to name their members even though they are funded via tax payers money and they exist purely to subvert the democratic institutions of their country. They have used their internal 'whip' to force the Prime minister to enact policy positions favoured by their corporate donors rather than the manifesto promises they campaigned on at election time.

They promoted the hardest possible Brexit even though it was absolutely undeniable that there was no mandate for such an extreme form of Brexit.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/freedom-of-information/revealed-the-files-that-expose-erg-as-a-militant-party-within-a-party/

They are conjoined with the 'Institute for Economic Affairs' which is another shadowy 'think tank' which does not reveal it's source of funding but to anyone who's not deliberately choosing to see, is clearly funded by a small cabal of very wealthy individuals in order to promote extreme right wing economic ideology (laissez faire and 'trickle down' economics that result in the elites commandeering more and more of the resources in the state leaving the population increasingly impoverished... which we're seeing the effects of right now, with real incomes in the UK at their lowest levels in generations while the billionaires have never been more wealthy)

They were fully behind the 'Hostile environment' that set out to make the lives of immigrants so miserable that they wouldn't want to come anymore. They 'masterminded' the Rwanda policy of trafficking asylum seekers against their will and against international law to a developing country with the (barely hidden) implication that the conditions in Rwanda are so bad that it will discourage anyone from seeking Asylum in Britain)

They treat international law with absolute distain, and clearly entered into international agreements with the full intention of breaking them immediately afterwards (all the bullsh1t about 'technological solutions to a border in NI' that they knew would not work and result in the GFA being undermined with the likely return to 'the troubles' in Northern Ireland)

They are ultra nationalistic - they want Britain to dominate any international organisations they are a part of, and want even the 3 other countries of the UK to be fully subservient to the English parliament.

They have no respect for democracy, as demonstrated by their lies and rule breaking during the brexit referendum, and their lies and rule breaking during the Scottish Independence referendum, and their refusal to allow the people any say on the brexit withdrawal treaties, and the voter id laws they are bringing in that make it very difficult for people under retirement age who do not have either a drivers license or passport to vote in English elections

They have pushed through legislation that make protest illegal if it causes any inconvenience,

They have imposed draconian restrictions on the ability of workers to engage strike action, and are continuing to impose even harsher restrictions

So, yeah, the ERG, being the extremist wing of an already very right wing party are far right wingers in the context of European politics

BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

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BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? threadbans in OP