Is crypto era over?

if your philosophy in life is to invest based on the collapse of, say, the US Dollar then i think you have to accept the following risk profile:

You will have an employment life of about 40 to 50 years; by the last 10/15 of those years you really need to have built up a significant amount of your 'lifetime capital' because you have to heavily reduce your risk taking as your active employment years wind down... so, in my experience, you've got about 25 years where you can take real financial risk with your investments - real leverage etc. If you think it's a good idea to take investment positions, or back investment theories, that depend upon those 25 years happening to run coincident with the collapse of the largest fiat currency on earth, then, I wish you good luck - because you will certainly need it.

If this guy is right

https://twitter.com/hellspawncrypto/status/1525575167027695616?s=20&t=pyeMHUqBoFWWDd13cU8rrg

and most of the 'super cycle' price movement was faked, which is not out of the realms of possibility surely, how can it come back from this. Or at least how long would it take. People have short memories alright and there will inevitably be new entrants again who want to get rich quick but surely the well runs dry at some stage. Could have just been too greedy and killed the goose. Will have to wait and see who's actually lost big here, still no release of FTX's biggest creditors yet.

For me BTC is still the only coin where the network effect will work imo (all linked to it as an immutable store of value). Miners & investors happy to see the price go up and nobody uses it to transact so that's irrelevant. With the others, price goes exponential - miners happy, investors happy, users fucked? Always going to be the issue that 1 of the 3 parties is disadvantaged surely? Seems like the tech and the price have to be separated out for the other blockchains to actually gain adoption.

EDIT: Yeah, you're probably right.

Like I say, my tinfoil hat is firmly on atm. No idea what to believe now tbh. Just madness 🙂

Is FTX/SBF the only guy to not run when **** hits the fan? And to actually double down and see if you can get away with the last bit left (which is surely nothing compared to what you had at one stage). While everyone's watching. Just wtf.

I agree.

People will trade it; I'll trade it myself.

But the "have fun staying poor" clowns; or the endless people who don't know cmos from sea moss, lecturing comp sci graduates on how we "just don't understand the tech", is now finished, finito, fin, mort.

It's just like trading beanie babies or rare sneakers - nothing more, nothing less.

There needs to be a level of trust for loans though does there not?

How do you enforce repossession of a house with decentralised finance? Pretty much everything I have seen with Defi involves having to post collateral equal to or exceeding the amount borrowed.

Traditional banking uses a clearing house system, as in all transactions are eventually validated by the Bank.

Decentralised banking would be exactly that, decentralised. For that to work there has to be in place a trustless system to validate the transactions similar to what happens with transactions on the Bitcoin network.

However after 15 years of Bitcoin has there really been that much progress other than being touted as some obscure form of store of Wealth. I doubt in 15 more years the Cryptography behind Bitcoin will still be secure or fit for purpose.

And before you start churping about Ethereum or some variant, that too falls down on the cat and mouse cryptography problem of Security verses usability. The more secure you make the encryption the slower and less usable it becomes for any type of transaction especially contracts.

So back to the title of this thread, is Crypto over, well the crypto in cryptocurrency is cryptography and that has been with us with over 4000 years!! but we all still put our letters into envelopes to hide the contents instead of using cryptography for the same reasons, to make secure for everyday use takes too much work

With deposits, I guess I was more thinking of the likes of the 8bn lost in FTX. If you exist outside of the centralised system, then you don't get the benefits of that. If you are lending crypto to earn interest, there is a similar situation. What if the person doesn't want to give the money back? Do you even know who they are?

The double spend problem is only solved when the Hashing power is decentralised and diverse. As we have seen with many of the Alts double spending attacks occur once an attacker gets enough of the hashing power or a mining group align there objectives (no law against this)

So far Bitcoin is safe (it dame well should be considering it uses more electricity than Japan and South Korea combined!!!)

A lot of people just use "the banks" to refer to the traditional financial players. I think if something useful does come from crypto, it will end up with some sort of centralisation. So, if you have some kind of peer to peer lending, there needs to be an intermediary as you wouldn't be able to finance legal action to enforce repayment on your own.

A lot of it seems to be we have this great solution, blockchain, we just need to find problems to solve with it. It reminds me of a guy I worked with at a trading firm who was interested in machine learning and wanted to use it to develop trading strategies, he just wasn't clear how or in what way it solved problems that we currently had. I thought it was a bit arseways, rather than looking for something to solve a problem, it is looking for problems to solve with a solution. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.