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Is crypto era over?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    2013: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 1k

    Bear market

    2017: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 20k

    Bear market

    2021: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 60k

    Bear market

    Usual disclaimer: the past isn't an indicator of the future, even if there is another bull, we have no idea if prices will even break ATH, etc. However having been through the last 10 years, the psychology never changes. It's not like people have stopped going to casinos.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,410 ✭✭✭Potatoeman




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,270 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Define "money" for me?

    Crypto is no more an investment than fiat currency trading is.

    Banks or fiat currencies don't and haven't collapsed? How is the Shekel working out? There are plenty of FIAT currencies that have come and gone along with plenty of banks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Very little coverage in the general media to date of the bankrupting of crypto companies. There seems to be a collapse in confidence in the concept of crypto and investors looking to sell as quickly as possible. Little financial substance to the concept and very concerning accounts of financial shenanigans to give a look of apparent structure. Has the look of a giant ponzi scheme and those that got in and sold out have made their money, leaving suckers to take the hit.

    But will it have an impact on economies in general and the ordinary citizen?



  • Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭Mucashinto


    I genuinely feel sorry for CZ if he's going to be the patsy they pin this on.

    There's been a couple of insane threads on twitter showing the involvement of the usual big financial players (Goldman etc) and they're getting removed at a quick rate. This one still up here is all speculation & conjecture but still, **** hell, that Bankman-Fried family...they get around!

    https://twitter.com/JagoeCapital/status/1590751676105125888?s=20&t=hM3ClRFSAr0p_jLuw9vngQ

    My current thinking: Glenn Ellison == Satoshi 🙂 The whole thing was created by behavioural economists in the (ultimately correct) view they could 100% predict human behaviour (and so make an absolute shedload of money) in a market if they 1) had some control to affect prices (so unregulated and have some control over exchanges/price movement) and 2) the underlying assets could not be linked to any real world effectors like revenue or profits etc. ergo BTC.

    I've gone full tinfoil hat 🙂

    What a week/two years



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,410 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    I wouldn’t feel too bad for CZ, he turned down the OTC trade of FTT for $22. He picked his moment to stick the knife in. Not the FTX deserve any sympathy, you don’t dip into customer funds. The questions will be about how interrelated all these people are. Genslers name coming up in connection to people working at FTX is not good for him, people are also looking into his involvement in Silver trading and possible insider trading in it from a few years ago.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    People who found themselves on the wrong side of this did so because of the kind of BS you just illustrated.

    Firstly, financial institutional do not trade on their own account. Financial regulation and the foundations and institutional investors have seen to that. Yes they facilitate their clients who want to deal in this just the same as they do in lots of other kinds of high risk situations. But it does not matter to them which way it goes, they will still get the same cut. They are also interested in the use of the technology underly crypto and they invest in research and development of this technology. But that is where it ends. And I'm saying that as someone how held senior positions in banking in mainland Europe for over three decades.

    As for behavioural economists, people struggle to organise a christening, a wedding or a funeral, never mind something as big as this. This great delusion formed and grew just like every other great delusion in history, the most notable being 'tulip mania'. I see crypto as an automated version of tulip mania, but far more dangerous because the very automation that made it possible will make a crash happen even faster.

    You make money in investing by taking cold, calculated unemotional decisions. Group think, following trends, listening to the talking heads etc. is for the patsy, the people who ultimately you are going to make the money from. They will happily sell you high valued assets for a song and buy crap at a premium all because their little information bubble says so. It's up to you do decide if you want to be the patsy or not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    if your philosophy in life is to invest based on the collapse of, say, the US Dollar then i think you have to accept the following risk profile:

    You will have an employment life of about 40 to 50 years; by the last 10/15 of those years you really need to have built up a significant amount of your 'lifetime capital' because you have to heavily reduce your risk taking as your active employment years wind down... so, in my experience, you've got about 25 years where you can take real financial risk with your investments - real leverage etc. If you think it's a good idea to take investment positions, or back investment theories, that depend upon those 25 years happening to run coincident with the collapse of the largest fiat currency on earth, then, I wish you good luck - because you will certainly need it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    you needed increased participation - and particularly increased leverage - to fuel those price runs

    large institutions will not step back into this space now, large PE, large Pension Funds are now gone - without them you're going to lose a ton of liquidity which will see increased vol but the big bull run days are over

    I mean you see people talking about cold storage and all that stuff - the price cannot go hard bid from people who stick 20 BTC on a USB stick and leave it in their safe - the thing requires constant network effect growth



  • Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭Mucashinto


    If this guy is right

    https://twitter.com/hellspawncrypto/status/1525575167027695616?s=20&t=pyeMHUqBoFWWDd13cU8rrg

    and most of the 'super cycle' price movement was faked, which is not out of the realms of possibility surely, how can it come back from this. Or at least how long would it take. People have short memories alright and there will inevitably be new entrants again who want to get rich quick but surely the well runs dry at some stage. Could have just been too greedy and killed the goose. Will have to wait and see who's actually lost big here, still no release of FTX's biggest creditors yet.

    For me BTC is still the only coin where the network effect will work imo (all linked to it as an immutable store of value). Miners & investors happy to see the price go up and nobody uses it to transact so that's irrelevant. With the others, price goes exponential - miners happy, investors happy, users fucked? Always going to be the issue that 1 of the 3 parties is disadvantaged surely? Seems like the tech and the price have to be separated out for the other blockchains to actually gain adoption.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Ultimately price volatility is all the matters, that's the real attraction. Even if Eth never touches ATH again, as long as it can drop 85%, then pick up 20x for no real intrinsic reason - then that's all people want.

    Sorry to say this, but it's the "stock market" for stupid people. There's often little logic to it. Which again, increases the attraction and feeds it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    The dataset is 1.89% of all trades? An the 98.1% is of that 1.89% set?

    So this would indicate a smidgen of dishonesty (or small enough to be considered genuine errors), hardly "most" of the super cycle

    I'd be wary of anyone declaring themselves the defender of cyber security, and diverting from that point deep into politics



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    I think a lot of it is to do with the younger generation feeling they need to hit a home run to be comfortable and buy a home. Old fashioned 6% a year in traditional investments are not gonna do that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 321 ✭✭Mucashinto


    EDIT: Yeah, you're probably right.

    Like I say, my tinfoil hat is firmly on atm. No idea what to believe now tbh. Just madness 🙂

    Is FTX/SBF the only guy to not run when **** hits the fan? And to actually double down and see if you can get away with the last bit left (which is surely nothing compared to what you had at one stage). While everyone's watching. Just wtf.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    No worries, I've only just glanced at that twitter post so not saying I'm accurate here either - nothing wrong with having the tin foil hat on from time to time, though I think you've offended Jim, not sure exactly why but maybe he has a soft spot for Goldman 😯



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    It's not really an investment, it's a reshuffling of wealth without anything of substance being produced, but a lot of people don't seem to grasp that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    Or watching too many influencers selling the dream/fantasy of getting rich quick.



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    I agree.

    People will trade it; I'll trade it myself.

    But the "have fun staying poor" clowns; or the endless people who don't know cmos from sea moss, lecturing comp sci graduates on how we "just don't understand the tech", is now finished, finito, fin, mort.

    It's just like trading beanie babies or rare sneakers - nothing more, nothing less.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Would have to disagree, it might be way off yet but finance will be decentralised, people of the future will obtain mortgages, gain interest on savings, and pay for goods via decentralised exchanges.

    There aren't many requirements for this:

    Coins are safe (already achievable with cold storage)

    Coin valuation is stable, or somewhat stable (yet to be achieved)

    Coins can seamlessly purchase goods/services (yet to be achieved, seamlessly anyways)

    Holders have complete trust in DEX (yet to be achieved)


    The day will come when banks are obsolete, money is an item that is based on trust, and that trust does not depend on physical objects, or financial institutions such as bank as we know them today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,622 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Yep. As far as I know almost all DEX have performed very well. Their record is much better than centralized projects.


    Platforms such as UNISWAP and AAVE etc

    You control your own wallet and risk is dramatically lowered.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    Personally, I doubt all of that.

    But, as I said, people really need to be aware of their investment horizon...

    I've worked in finance for a very long time - part of which included launching a hedge fund that had to get fully regulated - it took about 3 years and millions of euro to achieve that ... so that informs me that the time it would take to effectively upend the entire financial system in the manner you suggest (ignoring whether that's actually realistic) would take a minimum, IMO, of about 25 years. If you're 30 years old today then I suspect you're risking wasting much of your most productive years on something that might happen just as your ability to take risk is winding down. People need to be aware of these things, life can be hard enough when the chips fall your way - but if you're fighting the tide for 10+ years then it can get really difficult; even the capital losses that people have taken in the last couple of years could prove very difficult to recoup.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    There needs to be a level of trust for loans though does there not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Yes, of course, same for current lending, the bank assesses the risk of loaning you money, asks what collateral you have and decides how much it can risk to lend you.

    The bank has trust in you to pay it back, but understands that loaning money is a risk.

    So, for decentralised loaning its the same trust and the same risk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    How do you enforce repossession of a house with decentralised finance? Pretty much everything I have seen with Defi involves having to post collateral equal to or exceeding the amount borrowed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    How does the bank go about repossession, it attempts to enforce a binding contract. The bank then has to pay lawyers to try reposes the house.

    Then the challenge for Defi is how to seize collateral. In this case if the deeds are digitised and stored then this can be achieved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭dartboardio


    Crypto isn't an 'era' or a phase... It's only the beginning and people should be in for the long run.


    People think just because it's had a **** year that it's down for good...



    lol. if only things left lasting effects that quickly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    I am struggling to see what problem this is trying to solve though. In what ways will it be better for consumers? I get some people really like the idea of it, but what is the point? Same with bank deposits etc, who would guarantee them under this new decentralised system? In what way would it better than what we have?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    There is still going to be centralization somewhere, most likely the owner of the blockchain/exchange. In the case of a mortgage, for example, what does decentralization mean and how does it work?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    On one hand you're stating you don't se the problem its trying to solve, then asking who would guarantee the deposits.

    One of the problems its trying to solve is that somebody needs to guarantee deposits in banks!!

    How is it better for consumers, well if we have 100 customers of a bank, and that bank makes money off those customers whilst they bank, then what happens if we remove the bank and those 100 customers could still continue banking, they would save on banking fees, or at least any fees would be divided between themselves.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg


    Traditional banking uses a clearing house system, as in all transactions are eventually validated by the Bank.

    Decentralised banking would be exactly that, decentralised. For that to work there has to be in place a trustless system to validate the transactions similar to what happens with transactions on the Bitcoin network.

    However after 15 years of Bitcoin has there really been that much progress other than being touted as some obscure form of store of Wealth. I doubt in 15 more years the Cryptography behind Bitcoin will still be secure or fit for purpose.

    And before you start churping about Ethereum or some variant, that too falls down on the cat and mouse cryptography problem of Security verses usability. The more secure you make the encryption the slower and less usable it becomes for any type of transaction especially contracts.

    So back to the title of this thread, is Crypto over, well the crypto in cryptocurrency is cryptography and that has been with us with over 4000 years!! but we all still put our letters into envelopes to hide the contents instead of using cryptography for the same reasons, to make secure for everyday use takes too much work



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    At the very crudest of beginnings could we not start with a public blockchain and proceed from there?

    In the case of a mortgage you have a smart contract.

    Like I say this is way off being perfected, but we are closer than a lot of people think. I see the similarities between this and the adoption of the Internet, and what really made the Internet usable is Protocols and Standardization.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    With deposits, I guess I was more thinking of the likes of the 8bn lost in FTX. If you exist outside of the centralised system, then you don't get the benefits of that. If you are lending crypto to earn interest, there is a similar situation. What if the person doesn't want to give the money back? Do you even know who they are?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,824 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    There has to be regulation in the long term or it will die. Simple as that.

    In any othere area some of the actions taken by certain crypto backers would be straight up fraud.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,627 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    If blockchain is to ever replace FIAT money, it would need to be regulated and recognised as legal tender.

    Otherwise you could go into a shop and be refused service because the coin in your crypto wallet isn't accepted by the retailer.

    Nobody wants to be dealing with that

    And if the crypto coin became ubiquitous and so was accepted everywhere, without regulation, you're putting basically all of the liquid wealth in the entire country into the control of a private group and private exchanges that, as we've seen over and over and over and over again, will steal all your money

    Plus, all the middlemen, creating apps and services so that the ordinary pensioner on the street can access their wallets opens up risks of scammers and malware and ransomware taking people's life savings....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    Why do we need a block chain? What problem is there with the current system and what does the crypto system do to fix it? I'm not against the concept of a block chain, but just the idea that these currencies are the future and deserve such high prices.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    One of the problems solved by crypto is that of double spending, if we have a virtual currency then this prevents you and I trying to spend the same coin, therefore uniqueness and validation are part of it. Uniqueness can be assigned to people too (no ned for blue ticks Elon).

    The question of lending money and not getting it back exists in traditional finance too, and same as there, if funds are not identified or held then there is no guarantee that you will get it back, but the borrower is easily identified.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,824 ✭✭✭✭kippy




  • Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg


    The double spend problem is only solved when the Hashing power is decentralised and diverse. As we have seen with many of the Alts double spending attacks occur once an attacker gets enough of the hashing power or a mining group align there objectives (no law against this)

    So far Bitcoin is safe (it dame well should be considering it uses more electricity than Japan and South Korea combined!!!)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    If we want to do banking without banks, then blockchain is one alternative. The current system is far from perfect, and it works until it doesn't



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,824 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    You said crypto solves a problem of uniqueness. This isn't a problem with FIAT that crypto solves though is it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Yes, where taking control is not possible of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    That was in response to an earlier question regarding decentralised financial transactions when lending money to another individual - "Do you even know who they are?"

    I didn't say it was a problem that FIAT has, only that its not a problem for decentralised finance.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    You are one of those who will most likely never get past the emotional side… I don’t give a toss for any particular institution or financial product beyond whether or not I can make money out of the situation. The only to do that is to check your emotions at the door and if you can’t do that then you are likely to learn some very expensive lessons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Dunno Jim pal, seems your response is more emotionally charged than mine, I’ve even been accused of being dead inside by some friends!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭Shapey Fiend


    The problem crypto solves as I see it is more transparency/immutability on a ledger. Companies at present do business and they've got accountants on both sides with different balance sheets and interpretations. There's a lot of money flying around in the system that isn't taxed. That's right from the people at the top of companies down to the person on the till who's trying to find a way to pocket money by voiding transactions or whatever the current flavour of the month fraud is.

    The CEX's seem to be ran by cowboys at the moment but once regulated entities backed by governments enter the fray you could expect less fuckery. You'd always have the option of self custody (for some portion) of your money as well. Again governments could probably sieze funds that get hacked or stolen if they had some sort of ownership of the blockchain.

    BTC will never be a good medium for payments it's for libertarian bunker residing hodlers. Ethereum for all its incredibly slow development seems to be making decent progress towards being sort of affordable for smaller transactions but I think Ethereum is more concerned with being a open ended platform for software experimentation rather than payments. Nobody wants to pay for stuff in volatile tokens anyway it'll be some sort of government backed stablecoin that becomes the standard for that. It just depends on whether the US Government decide the tech is good enough in 10 years, or at all, before they start dipping their toes in. It definitely feels quite a long way off being ready at the moment. Till then we'll probably see some weird and wonderful applications built, but mostly ponzis, cos ponzis are kind of fun.

    Much like tech I don't think we'll see the financialisation of every bloody thing on the planet slow down any time soon because people inherently like trade, gambling and shiny new technological gimmickery too much.



  • Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭Dasein


    Ideological might be the better adjective than emotional.


    also, something you should note when you are going on about 'The Banks' ... there's already loads of non-bank finance, it grew massively after the crash. My own mortgage is with a non-bank lender. Banks can and are being replaced by non-crypto solutions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    A lot of people just use "the banks" to refer to the traditional financial players. I think if something useful does come from crypto, it will end up with some sort of centralisation. So, if you have some kind of peer to peer lending, there needs to be an intermediary as you wouldn't be able to finance legal action to enforce repayment on your own.

    A lot of it seems to be we have this great solution, blockchain, we just need to find problems to solve with it. It reminds me of a guy I worked with at a trading firm who was interested in machine learning and wanted to use it to develop trading strategies, he just wasn't clear how or in what way it solved problems that we currently had. I thought it was a bit arseways, rather than looking for something to solve a problem, it is looking for problems to solve with a solution. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.



  • Administrators Posts: 54,168 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Yes, exactly. This is where all the Web3 bullshit came from, it's absolute nonsense, but it is pushed because someone has a solution to a problem that doesn't really exist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭erlichbachman


    Cmon lads, open the minds

    This reminds me of when some guy said, ok we have a bunch of networks and we have found a way to make one single network of all these smaller networks, and another came along and asked ok but what problem does that solve.



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