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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,163 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    They have no real choice now. Expect a NATO response.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,228 ✭✭✭Breezer


    Yes, that’s just me speculating. I can’t imagine sanctions are going to cut it this time though, accident or not. I suspect it might be a case of more and better equipment being sent to Ukraine.

    The Pentagon now stating the reports are still unconfirmed and they’re looking into it.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    There will be no response beyond "We'll place more troops in the country/border" or further anti missile defenses or similar; NATO is not going to start a war with Russia over two stray missiles going into Poland. If they really wanted to stick a knife in however I'd suggest ramping up around the other Russian borders with more troops to "encourage" Russia to do the same and hence tie up more soldiers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    I live in Warsaw and there's quite a bit of fear going around.

    The Russians are claiming it as fake news of course.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Surely Poland are within their rights to bomb the crap out of the Russian positions which launched the missiles? Say it is a defensive move to push the Russians back out of range to avoid the same happening again.

    Russia fucked up here, their justification for the invasion was protecting their borders despite no real threat, anybody else is justified in protecting their own borders after their citizens have been killed. If the Russians react to that then the whole of NATO can pile in. The Russians wouldn't do anything, they know they'd be crushed.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    To your first question; nope and doing so would be considered starting a war which NATO does not need to support in any way as NATO is a defensive alliance.

    Secondly and this is coming translated from Radio Zets (Italian) that the missiles were actually parts from missiles Ukrainian anti air had shot down. If that's the case (and as I said I only got one source mentioned in a news article about it) would actually mean it's not Russia targeting Poland (true or not I got no idea but I can't see what Russia would gain to bomb a few km inside the Polish border at a random location and then only with two missiles).



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,705 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    From historic precedents, such as the years running up to 1914, one or two relatively minor incidents are unlikely to spark a war. However, Russia continuously overstepping the various international norms and the mass of such incidents could spiral beyond political leaderships ability to control the outcome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    I think Putin would probably like NATO to enter the war in some way. He'd rather lose to NATO than lose to Ukraine. He'd like to say, "look I told you NATO was behind all this!". To be beaten by Ukraine (even if aided by some Western countries) is much worse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I can see that but I think being beaten by Nato would be just as humiliating (and so extremely dangerous,)


    Russia needs it's off ramp ,whatever about Putin itself


    We don"t,(will we ever?) know exactly what has happened today in Poland although you would expect the Poles to have a good idea.

    If the Ukrainians are pushing beyond Kherson that is good news.

    Is the Russian army about to crumble under the weight of the sheer hybristic powerlessness of this whole exercise?


    At the very outset it was questioned whether they would be mad enough to attempt to conquer Ukraine.


    "Those whom the gods would destroy....." We know the rest



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The claims of Ukrainan air defense systems came from pro russian account on social media,

    Anti aircraft missles don't tend to leave large Crater's on the ground like what was seen in Poland today,

    Russia was targeting energy infrastructures all day to day and surprise surprise what lays very close to where these missles hit in Poland an electricity interconnecter...



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sorry to disappoint you Gatling looks like the Russians weren't involved and it was a malfunction by a Ukrainian air defence missile, most likely an s300.

    Or are you going to disagree with the words of the US president.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Yes the details are very important here and they need to be fully confirmed before any action can be taken. However, speaking hypothetically for now, if it was confirmed to be Russian missiles which caused deaths inside Polish territory, a response from Poland would be required. Note I said Poland, any NATO involvement would be depend on how Russia would react which would be a couple of steps further down the line. If Poland were to destroy a Russian artillery unit or two in response to them killing Poles in Poland, I doubt Russia would do much. They can't afford to take on more enemies now, it would be a good time to rachet up the pressure on Putin and see how strong his grip on power is. With his army in retreat, now would be a good time to poke Putin, if the opportunity presents itself.

    Russia is constantly targeting civilian infrastructure and a long way from where fighting is taking place. A missile going astray would be no excuse, they shouldn't be doing this anyway. In any case, it depends on the exact circumstances which remain to be seen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    ..



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    I wonder, does Poland have the capacity to hit russian targets in either the black sea or in the far East?

    Only issue I see with Poland reacting in the way you mentioned (and honestly, I'd favour it) is that Putin's lapdog also sits at the polish border so he may be asked to also intervene.

    A very dangerous situation.



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,162 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    As odd as it sounds, its probably better for everyone that this was a malfunctioning Ukrainian missile. Would have required a fairly harsh response if it was Russia. I'm all for Russia getting a boot up the hole, but might not have helped the situation.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,667 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think one needs to pay attention to the actual words used by Biden.

    He said he did not think the missile was fired 'from Russia', not fired 'by Russia'. It could have been fired by Russian troops in Belarus or by Russian troops in Ukraine territory, or from a Russian Black Sea fleet vessel.

    World of a difference.

    It appears to be a Russian missile according to reports, but early days yet. Response by NATO or Poland yet to be decided.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    But Ukraine has not only Russian weapons before the war but has as well looted quite a few items left behind by the fleeing Russian army as well. As I said I don't exactly hold Putin in any high regards and he's a dead man walking internally but I simply can't see how Russia (at any level) would benefit, in any way, shape or form, from firing two missiles 5km inside the Polish border at farm land. If they had hit cities, military locations, ammo depos, electrical transformation/key points etc. yes I can see benefits (and the stupidity of doing so) but not in this case. That's why I'm inclined to believe it's not necessary Russia's intentionally doing (short of someone completly messing up coordinates in what ever firing system was used) short of a vodka induced commander or similar (which seeing how the Russian field manual specifically contains a big section on drinking I'd not hold beyond them from doing). It does not help the war effort, it's not going to raise morale among troops, it's not going to curry favour with the leadership team or the ultra nationalists military bloggers, it's not going demoralize Poland to stop supporting Ukraine (if anything the opposite) etc. Russian leadership does things for their own benefit but I simply can't figure out in any way how they would benefit from it; that's the only reason I'm giving Russia the benefit of the doubt here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Nice try but.

    No buy ,

    Biden didn't say anything about a malfunctioning Ukrainian missle



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Except it appears he's done so in private as per Reuters. Once again we will need to wait for the full report obviously but the ideas of "Poland bombing Russian launch sites" etc. is a tad to hasty.

    BERLIN, Nov 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden told G7 and NATO partners that a missile blast in eastern Poland was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile, a NATO source told Reuters on Wednesday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But the same Reuters news claims a US source said it was two Russian cruise missiles that hit Poland yesterday,

    Definitely think there may be more to this ,ie downplaying it to prevent all out war



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Does this put it to bed?

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2022/1116/1336370-poland-ukraine-russia-latest/

    "Polish president says 'very likely' missile was from Ukraine air defence"

    Of course Russia is still to blame but retaliation for this incident seems unlikely to me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,110 ✭✭✭yagan


    Even if it's an errant Ukrainian missile it does bring back that two EU citizens were killed on EU soil as a consequence of Russian revanchist military aggression, but that been the way since the Maylasian airline was shot down.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,667 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Look, it is not in anyone's interest to start WW III.

    Biden did not say, originally, that the missile was fired 'from Russia' - he said it was not fired 'from Russia'. However, investigations will show what was fired, and possibly by whom, and from where.

    We await the reports - hopefully, truthful reports.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Reports are already out, confirmed by the poles that it wasn't an intentional attack and just a tragic accident.

    Nothing from the Ukrainians yet though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I did a post 2 weeks ago suggesting that peace negotiations could start soon and that Ukraine would have a very strong negotiating position. I was called a peacenik(?), Putin-bot, Non-Irish etc etc. And yet Zelensky has outlined his opening demands in a possible peace negotiation - what gives?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    I don't think starting WWIII is a concern here. Russia has proven itself to be militarily inept and have lost huge numbers of trained soldiers and equipment which they won't be able to replace for a long time. They are being beaten by the Ukrainians, there are multiple western countries who individually are far stronger than Ukraine, together they'd destroy Russia.

    I think the western powers just want to get to the bottom of what happened and will act accordingly (which is looking increasingly like no action is required). I don't think there worried about Russia, they just don't want to stoop to Russia's level and without justification.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Ukraine is free to negotiate or not as it sees fit and Ireland has a moral imperative to support it(as the attacked party) whichever course it takes (within reason)


    If you oppose Ukraine's policy then your motives are open to question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Can see the NATO countries moving up their anti missile systems close to the border.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    You'd have to question though how quick the Ukrainian government pointed the finger at Russia when the facts weren't known.

    Of course if Russia hadn't attacked then it wouldn't have happened but it might be a lesson for Ukraine not to jump to conclusions without knowing all the facts.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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