Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

In general the models after much chopping and changing beginning to hone in on around Monday evening /night into early Tues morning for the deppression to move quickly up off the W coasts sending in an active frontal system with strong winds sweeping up over the country accompanied by heavy rain. Will need to see how strong the winds will be and exact timing. Models getting closely bunched, ARPEGE probably a good average of them at this stage. Will be somewhat cooler in general, might be a warm sector in there but probably swept aside quickly.

Huge difference in the models for Monday with each one having a different track for the quick moving areas of LP and each showing different tracks and strength for the Jet, below can see the ECM showing a wave quickly forming off the parent low to produce strong winds in the SW initially and and again later as the main area of LP swings back down over the country. Very low confidence in the models at this stage will have to see how they develop, could be nothing much just blustery or perhaps something strong depending on how it pans out. Difficult one to forecast but worth keeping an eye on it, fast moving aided by the jet, starting to see those stronger temperature gradients and fast jet that can whip up strong wind producing systems very quickly.

UKMO showing heavy rain up along the East, ICON Flash showing some other area in Northern counties getting very heavy rain. Complex areas of LP, could be quite windy and blustery along S and SE coasts for a time tomorrow morning and in the SW tomorrow night into Tues morning.

A lick of strong winds here in the SW this evening and overnight. Yellow warning from Met Eireann.

Interesting that the GFS develops the second low crossing the country tomorrow afternoon /evening stronger than the European models , will see what the next run shows.

In the end the WRF came more in line with the Euro by brining the strongest winds more along and off shore, I think the European models did adjust every so slightly bringing the strongest winds near the coasts so a bit of adjustment by both but more so by the WRF.