2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

Sam Russell · 14-11-2022 10:55am

An analogy: (Sorry)

In the Ukraine war, Russia and Ukraine have quite different strategies at the moment, (From various opinions).

The Russians are attacking civilian infrastructure - water and energy - throughout Ukraine with the apparent intent of breaking the spirit of the Ukrainians and hoping it will bring them to the negotiating table begging for it to end.

The Ukrainians are trying to avoid civilian damage, and target only military targets trying to inflict damage to Russian soldiers and Russian logistics to make it as near impossible to conduct the war, and confine them to just defensive positions - and even make those positions untenable. On the whole, they try to cause as little damage as they can - after all, they intend to live and stay there.

Now one could apply the logic of the Russians to the GOP - who oppose every move by the Democrats in spite of whatever good effect it might have on their own supporters - if it is proposed by the Democrats, then they will oppose it. No low is too low to go for the MAGA proponents. Jan 6th 2021 was an epiphany for the rest of America, and the world, who watched in horror as the very citadel of American democracy was under attack from the barbarians intent on sacking it.

On the other hand the Democrats are trying to improve the lot of Americans by initiatives like Medicare, labour law, fair taxation, building defences to the democratic system that is the whole backbone to the USA. Unfortunately, there are Democrats who do partake of some of the gerrymandering beloved of the GOP. On balance, they appear to try and not do too much damage.

Following the midterms, the Democrats appear to have been heard by many Americans.

Podge_irl · 14-11-2022 1:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871413#Comment_119871413

I suspect Sinema and Manchin will be played off against each other, but Manchin is far more likely to be appeased more. He holds a seat that no other Democrat could win, Sinema could still be primaried out.

marno21 · 14-11-2022 1:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872471#Comment_119872471

Agreed. The Dems are already up against it in 2024. Seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio will be tricky to defend despite 3 very strong candidates in each state. The last time those seats were up for grabs was 2018, and that year despite the Dems picking up 42 House seats they actually ended up with a net loss of 2 Senate seats (picked up NV (Rosen) and AZ (Sinema), but lost FL (Nelson), IN (Donnelly), MO (McCaskill) and ND (Heitkamp)). The whole Brett Kavanaugh stuff didn't help then either. Manchin needs to be kept on board here at all costs if he is running in 2024.

Brussels Sprout · 14-11-2022 1:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872471#Comment_119872471

Yeah if they get 51 seats then I can see Manchin turning complete heel for these last 2 years in order to try and bolster support in WV. The two house seats there were won by the Republicans by 31 and 38 points in this election! He is running again in 2024 - if he can pull that off that'll be nothing short of amazing.

Mark Kelly's victory in AZ shows that you don't need to be....whatever it is that you would to describe Sinema...in that state. I'd be surprised if she wasn't primaried.

StringerBell · 18-11-2022 4:50pm

Manchin is ridiculously popular in WV, he will win there again in 24 barring something incredible happening.

Sinema is a bigger issue for the Democrats but if they can get the Georgia run-off to break their way they have a good chance of isolating her.

Rjd2 · 18-11-2022 7:48pm

He only won by 3% in 2018 in what was a Bluewave against a weak candidate and 2024 is a presidential election so its far from certain he will win again, its a deep red state that Trump won by near 40%!

All over now, GOP have taken the house with a slim majority , bar that and an impressive effort down ballot in New York and DeSantis and to a lesser extent Kemp smashing it a pretty dire midterms for the GOP.

Its hard to summarise all the chatter afterwards, but from what I can gather people especially indy's were keen to vote Republican but not the crazy ones...

e.g" "generic republican or democrat?"

"Republican I suppose economy is a mess"

"Okay, so Mark Kelly or Blake Masters

I said a generic Republican not whatever the heck Blake is ffs"

The wacko's not only lost their races but dragged down a lot of the generic candidates in their respective states. PA the obvious example.

Georgia senate race left, not a foregone conclusion but would be surprised if Warnock did not win . Looking at the state its clear their was plenty of Kemp/Warnock voters who will come back 2nd time to vote Warnock and Walker is simply a really weak candidate.

It was interesting that Trump dd not speak about stop the steal and abortion in his speech that much on Tuesday because even he must know those 2 issues are poison with the normies and independents.

Brian? · 19-11-2022 9:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119891276#Comment_119891276

I actually think Walker will win in Ga now. They don’t need to mobilise the vote to win the Senate. Even a slightly depressed turnout and Warnock is in trouble.

Sam Russell · 19-11-2022 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119892734#Comment_119892734

I think they need it more than ever. Biden needs to show he can win.

Brussels Sprout · 19-11-2022 4:20pm

The Senate map is absolutely brutal for Democrats in 2024. They are defending 23 seats to the Republican's 10. They're defending in 3 red states (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio) and 5 swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Wisconsin). All 10 of the seats that the Republicans are defending are in red states (yes, Florida is a red state now).

Democrats need to win Warnock's seat not just to get to 51 now but to have any hope of keeping the Senate in two years time.

Brian? · 09-12-2022 5:53pm

No sooner does Warnock lock down the senate for the Dems than Sinema ups sticks and is now an independent

Rjd2 · 20-12-2022 7:33pm

Not sure what her plan for 2024 is, she knew she was doomed in a primary but if its a three way between her, a dem and a republican than all bets are off.

However the Arizona GOP is a mess and their is chatter about Blake Masters running again which would make things easier for the dems ni matter what she does. It's possible she just cashes out and retires instead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html

One of the more surreal stories going regarding congress, a Republican in NY lied about well everything on his cv. 😂

Pretty shocking work though from the dems considering the money spent on congress they did what seems like zero oppo research ffs.

Itssoeasy · 02-01-2023 1:32pm

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1609730461701398528?s=61&t=Vc53s2kxBY5QL09a_I9wmw

It’s like herding cats with the GOP. This vote for speaker is normally a formality but not this year it seems.

pixelburp · 03-01-2023 8:29pm

A total embarrassment for McCarthy and the GOP: McCarthy failed to get the requisite votes and it'll go to a second round of voting.

Democrat Hakim Jeffries got 212 votes, McCarthy only managed 203, Republican Andy Biggs (nominated by Paul Gosar) had 10 votes so looks like there's some serious factionalism at play with the GOP at the moment.

I think I read a candidate needs to get 218 so I'd say there's no chance Jeffries will get that given the Republicans still hold the majority - but you never know I suppose

pixelburp · 03-01-2023 9:59pm

The 2nd round took place and the same votes; McCarthy on only 203 with the democrat at 212. Jim Jordan got 19 votes. This hasn't happened in a century and is now a bit unknown what happens next AFAIK. McCarthy drops out but who replaces him that might appeal to the rabid GOP fringe keeping the speaker out?

Itssoeasy · 03-01-2023 10:14pm

Jim Jordan nominated again by I think it’s chip Roy. So same three again. I’ve stood at removals with decades of the rosary that were less repetitive than this stuff. Tonight isn’t a great advertisement for American democracy as they can’t even get passed the first step.

pixelburp · 04-01-2023 7:42am

The vote has been paused til noon DC time today. Jim Jordan actually picked up another vote after the third round. Mad stuff and shows what a performative farce US politics has become.

Some talk is that Steve Scalise might be a compromise candidate that might seem acceptable to the hard right faction scuppering this supposed formality. Which, of course, further process the point that when it comes to the Republicans, the tail is very much wagging the dog here.

pixelburp · 04-01-2023 7:32pm

The fourth round came and went, McCarthy remains incapable of persuading the MAGA crowd. I think there were 20 votes this time against him.

It's calamitous to call this democracy. You'd think they'd just go with the majority vote, but that's US politics for you.

RobbingBandit · 04-01-2023 7:39pm

Civil War stuff the whole "Present" to abstain from voting is a strange one wonder will it get used by more as the night goes on

Sam Russell · 04-01-2023 9:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120065896#Comment_120065896

If he has only 202/203 votes, and Dems have 212, then unless at least 11 republicans vote for McCarthy, then the Dems will get the speaker job. If he does not get the votes, h will not get the gig.

Podge_irl · 04-01-2023 9:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120066252#Comment_120066252

It needs an outright majority so its highly unlikely the Dems would ever get anywhere near it.

This is a total shitshow though.

Itssoeasy · 04-01-2023 9:29pm

This GOP congressman is going through the scare mongering playbook. It’s all bullshit.

What.Now · 04-01-2023 11:15pm

3 parties

Dem with 212

Rep with 202 and dropping

Lunatics with 19/20

Lunitics dont seem to be for moving. Time for the Dems and Rep to extend the olive branch and get together with compromises.

Sam Russell · 05-01-2023 10:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120066328#Comment_120066328

No, abstentions reduce the number for a majority. But if enough the Reps start abstaining, it results in the Dems getting the gig.

Podge_irl · 05-01-2023 6:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120067791#Comment_120067791

Even if that happened (and its v unlikely) it would be a mess. It would be a democratic speaker with no ability to control the house whatsoever.

Mind you, the eventual republican speaker faces the same issue. This is just the start of the chaos.

pixelburp · 05-01-2023 7:10pm

You thought it was a farce already? Oh no. US politics can always find a new depth; Gaetz obviously got a reminder his sucking up wasn't up to snuff.

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1611057465881432067

Itssoeasy · 12-01-2023 1:37pm

“He deceived the voters of the 3rd Congressional District, he deceived the members of the Nassau County Republican Committee, elected officials, his colleagues, candidates, his opponents and even some of the media,”

George Santos' campaign last year was a campaign of deceit, lies and fabrication,"

This is what the Nassau county GOP are saying about George santos and it’s a bit late seeing as how they supported him in the election but it’s better then never.

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/11/george-santos-nassau-county-gop-resignation

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1613226949249503234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1613226949249503234%7Ctwgr%5E8f653061fcf38761104093a96b71717f577accde%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rollingstone.com%2Fpolitics%2Fpolitics-news%2Fgeorge-santos-resign-nassau-county-gop-1234659336%2F

And now it appears that Santos claimed to be a volleyball star at the college he didn’t attend.

Rjd2 · 14-01-2023 1:57am

Yeah that's not good, but who the hell was responsible for the oppo research , astounding they caught none of this.

I hope if he lasts until 2024, the person who the Dems pick had nothing to do with the 2022 campaign and is ideally blacklisted.

2022 US Mid-Term Elections Thread (election date: Tuesday, 8th November)

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