A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Now I'm not saying there will or won't be a recession or whatever.

But as I said in previous posts and still from evidence last night, there is still no slow down on partying, eating out etc.

All ages not just young.

First night out in nearest big town to me last night in good few weeks, usually was sticking to small village near or go into Galway city lately.

But was shocked how busy ever pub restaurant was. I know match was on and that brought a few out.

But I'd imagine with all talk of people struggling to pay bills, recession next year etc.

And with Christmas just around. Where is the money coming from?

The recession will come and the main solution will be to turn on the tap of emigration again. Get all the young jobless out of the country, increase taxes and just ride the next few recession years out.

Swiss National Bank seeing increasing demand for USD recently in the first 3 weeks of October, also the number of banks needing USD from them is increasing rapidly.

Its definitely a good sign, whether or not its due to demand destruction or soft contracting I'm sure the idiots in the ECB will let us know. Hopefully this is the start of disinflation but people have to remember disinflation is not deflation, disinflation still implies inflation. I think give it till mid Q2 2023 and we will see rates coming back down and possible QE again in order to kickstart the German economy. Money markets with their record breaking steepening negative yield curves would back this statement up, but a lot too unfold yet.

Come January - March when people have over spent and leveraged for xmass things will become very miserable, very lean and very harsh quite quick, I think this will be where the bulk of unemployment rises along with brutal company earnings reports. This is when the magic monopoly money will need to be injected fast and the circus will continue.

If that isnt a big f you to the cop27 meeting. Meanwhile Europe doesn't want to sign up to any long term contract because were the greenest of the green. When will europe wake up and realise the rest of the world doesn't give shite.

People always find money for drink and socializing its generally the last thing to go too.

You have said this again and again. I dont think it will happen but any ideas in your thinking when you think the magic money printer will be turned back on?

Not only that. Alcohol and drugs are the hottest commodity in crisis. People are looking for something to help them to cop on. There will be more parties as the reality starts to bite.

Meanwhile the head of Germany's Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief (BBK), Ralph Tiesler, has warned citizens to prepare for short-term power outages, particularly in January and February, and to stock up on rations in advance.

They recommend to have supplies for at least 10 days.

i think you could be right here, again, im wondering how much sh1t will be allowed to occur, before these polices are enacted, its disturbing to see we re potentially walking into great danger here, and the institutions we have created to try prevent these dangerous, seem to be largely oblivious to the dangers, of which theyre playing a critical role in creating, scary stuff!

A friend of mine is 54 and just moved all his pension fund to cash and bonds. Usually they don't advise that until 60 or so.

yea, this is very worrying, many are starting to see what potential could occur here, we may have a serious correction in asset markets coming, thats actually not good.

Surely this is the expected response to induce a recession in order to tame inflation? A lot of people would argue they did not raise interest rates quickly enough. I agree with your comment on the markets but as rates rise surely the safe haven of bonds will be looked at by those in the know to keep their cash on the upper. I mean how sustainable is it to have QE on the never never? This is one of the main reasons we find ourselves with this runaway inflation we have had 3 shocks to the system (Brexit, Covid, Ukraine) and even though people have money in their pockets (Ireland has still got a very healthy savings built up) it could be argued that the cheap cash and the give away money seen during covid along with the supply issues from the war is seen as fuel that has inflation burning though peoples living standards. I mean if we do go back to QE and get back to very low rates what's to stop the same thing happening again if we get another shock to the system. I don't think they can just start printing again in order to ease the pain this time. I think a lot of countries are going to have to force down prices as the simple fact is companies globally in the main cannot give their employees pay rises to match inflation so they either keep on increasing interest rates in the hope of prices dropping (and this is working in some areas like timber for construction currently) or they go with QE again and then we are back to square one where all 3 shocks are still around and we are wide open if another crisis comes our way.

I don't think they can keep doing this either they have to come up with a more sustainable approach, but that will never happen. If they follow suit with the same programme they rolled out in 2008 and kept going steadily till covid, then it will do nothing bar cause greater wealth divides which will in turn create greater internal conflict among nations. Imagine the US if it keeps going on the same trajectory its on in 15 years time it will be in turmoil, the social divides are crazy ATM and in 15 years time it will off the rickards scale and that all came from asset price inflation due to QE and low rates.

Your right they can't keep using the one trick pony approach - but they will

And what is he going to do with his retirement fund when he retires? Leave it in the bank? I don't think he understands the new pension system to be honest. How does he expect to get ~4% year draw down on retirement with the fund in bonds and cash. Tell him to reverse his plan and to read up for 5 minutes, that's all it will take.

might be okay for demand lead inflation, but really a no no for supply side lead inflation, and add the accumulation of debt in circulation, and Houston, we ve a problem!

as you some what pointed out, inflation is ultimately coming from the supply side, and central banks effectively cant do anything about this type of inflation, and the only tool they have, i.e. raising rates, only pressurizes credit/debt markets. i do agree that rates need to be increased, but other polices need to be enacted in conjunction with so, in order to maintain some sort of forward motion, and raising rates will more than likely increase the likelihood of defaults, non performing loans, and significant disruption in debt markets. i also think rates are being increased too quickly, and as stated, wont actually really do much for inflation, but could cause turmoil elsewhere, and it doesnt look like central banks get this....

i also agree, continual qe is not a solution, it should never have been continued when it was confirmed to be simply inflating asset values, and not truly helping with the generally functioning of our economies, but the reality is, we continued, and now we re potentially in major asset bubbles, and raising rates are now more than likely gonna burst'em, maybe!

deposits currently amount to 144bn, which on average turns out to be around 30k per person, but the reality is, not everyone has that amount on deposit, some have significantly higher amounts, and others have nothing on deposit, but significantly high debts, i.e. deposits arent evenly disrupted. yes amounts are high, but we re not all the same!

its important to realise, money created during qe hasnt actually made it into the real economy, but has largely remained within our global financial system, (re)inflating asset prices, which is almost largely detached from our main economies, but of course does interact with it, with the qe money itself simply remaining in reserve accounts at the central banks themselves.

more direction methods of getting money into our economies, is urgently needed, this is what occurred during covid with polices such as pup, ewss etc, as access to money is quickly drying up, confidence is needed for people to spend deposits, but i suspect thats now collapsing, and im expecting a major sh1t show after the christmas bump.....

yes the increase in the availability of money during covid has lead to our current situation, but the majority of our inflationary pressures, is more than likely coming from our significant global supply chain disruptions, and now our effective energy crisis, again, raising rates wont solve these problems, but will more than likely lead to the above mentioned....

we re kinna stuck in this sh1t show, i.e. potentially unable to shut off qe, and a serious inability to raise rates significantly, we probably urgently need to enact radical polices such as major debt forgiveness programs, in order to reduce the accumulation of debt in circulation, particularly in the private domain, corporate debt etc. but i suspect that will probably never happen