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Softening house market?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    I find it interesting the commentary on prices.

    People say labour doesn't have much of an impact and that it's all materials. If that is true, then material prices will come down.

    The price of a shipping container from China to Europe is now down 44% from its peak in January/Feb this year.

    The price of lumber is down 75% from its peak.

    There's gouging going on now. Companies are still seeing demand so they can still charge what they want.

    But once the cracks show, the price cutting will start and then it's a race to the bottom.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,052 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I think Michael Burry and a lot of the contrarians are calling it the bull whip effect and that prices will even see deflation as companies have overstocked banking on the higher demand continuing as opposed to stalling. Remains to be seen how it will play out



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    Many companies in the US are reporting high inventory levels. It's why a lot of companies expanded so much during covid because they were getting these huge orders from customers which was as a result of delays with shipping. Now they don't need all those products.

    Walmart reported big inventory stockpiles and said they would need to take losses to clear them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Yeah but the majority of people that were looking to get these done are also on tight margins and demand will grind to a halt as well so there could be an impasse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    This is the future as we have ghost offices already from the excesses of the 10s that will never be filled.

    One observation on the general development of apartments; are there any records of newly developed apartments being put to the private market for individuals to buy in recent years as, from my own assessment, it would appear that practically zero have been made available to individuals to buy. Considering the average asking rents for new apartments, those that can rent them can afford to buy them so there is of course demand from individual purchasers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Im selling an apartment now and have already had a very good offer from the council and the apartment isnt even officially on the market yet. They offered to rent it first and I said no. Then they put in an offer to buy. I dont know how they knew I was selling. One in another block was sold to the council 6 months ago and there are horrible people in it now. I am loathe to sell to them for the sake of the neighbours, who have actually begged me not to sell to them, but if i dont get any offers over that one when I put it on the market after Christmas I will just sell to them. I can wait and see. I am told by the EA that the council have been mandated to buy every apartment that comes up for sale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    It made sense for us to sell ages ago but my wife wouldnt have it. Eviction ban came in. She finally understood that things are only going to get worse if we keep the property and now its for sale. Some people were holding out in hope. I think all hope is gone now. Any remaining landlords will be selling up asap. REITs will keep the rental market going though so I think there will still be plenty of rentals. At what price I dont know though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    The banks freeze drawdows for December until the new year too. Cant remember what the freeze date is but its the start of December.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Supermacs. €10.50 for a chicken burger yesterday. And a cup of tea in the city center €3.85. Dont know where people will get the money to buy houses with those kind of prices to suck up their money:) . Not to mention the Gas bill, Diesel, and all the rest. So the price of wood has come down. The wages of those transporting it and putting it together surely wont be coming down. The opposite actually.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I was in the market for an apartment in specific areas in Dublin for about 18 months, and had been following new developments for maybe 2 years prior to that, didn't see a single one go to market. I bought (second hand) about a year ago and even since I've gotten a few responses to queries I had made previously and they were all brochures for renting.. (i.e. build to rent). Huge developments in Dundrum, Harold's Cross, Milltown, Newmarket, all straight to rent.

    Of course the country only collectively lost their **** when a housing estate in Kildare didn't go to market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,724 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Cut out the Supermacs, the take away teas, the meals in Restaurants etc, however I will be told that is Avacoda.

    Was out in a restaurant twice in the last ten days. Usually it's once every couple of months. Both places were choc a block. In one Restaurant the people next to us asked for another drink and were told sorry the table was needed.

    A month ago was down in Cork and having lunch in a pub. Three young ladies in there late 20's came in. They were celebrating one of there birthday's it was a 30 euro a head at least.

    Like people say there is no money in the country. Everybody is broke due to inflation. Maybe the credit card bills after Christmas will change things but it rocking at the moment

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    4070 has not been released and 4080 selling for RRP more or less.

    Just saying. It's nothing like 2021

    Anyway, may also be a function of crypto collapse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Will be interesting how much of this rise is passed on.


    Though P Lane thinks it might be too much of a jump...



    ECB chief economist Philip Lane, one of its more dovish rate-setters, said in remarks published on Monday that 75 basis point rises may no longer be necessary as earlier increases meant that its benchmark deposit rate, now 1.5 per cent, was close to the point where it no longer supported growth. “The more we’ve already done, the less we need to do,” Lane told Market News.


    https://www.ft.com/content/2f43d51f-2863-40b0-bf6d-05fa0cf161a2



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Shauna677




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    These build to sell apartments were listed today in D18, pricey for Cabinteely imo which is ok but not a particularly great spot by any stretch of the imagination.


    One thing to note is the standards for BTS are much higher than BTR and thats clearly evident with the dual aspect etc.

    The below 1-bed plonked into Milltown would be probably closer to 600k, couldnt imagine they'd find many takers for that somehow.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Work just won't be done. A fixer upper can do a reduced spec to keep in budget. A supplier may not be able to cut margins enough to attract business.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    What of it?

    Many tenants in apartments are sharing and couldn't pay a 90% mortgage for the apartment. The apartments wouldn't have been built at all on a speculative basis for sale to individual purchasers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Nobody is forced to buy chicken burgers or tea. people saving for houses need to be sensible with their money. I know people who never ate out when saving a deposit.



  • Administrators Posts: 54,568 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    People need to be sensible with their money but expecting people to be totally miserable is not right either.

    This is basically the avocado toast argument, and it doesn't stand up to any scrutiny at all.

    Relative to wages, house prices are higher than they have ever been. People must save 10% minimum of the price to be able to buy. Getting on the property ladder is more difficult than it has ever been in history.

    Whether someone eats a chicken burger or drinks tea has no material impact on this whatsoever. They could eat Koka noodles every night and never step foot outside apart from going to work and it would still have no material impact.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah fair enough, I wasn't looking that far out really, an apartment in a distance suburb doesn't appeal to me!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,724 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    They are being replaced by the supermarket tray. At one stage there was a quality difference between Supermarket and butcher now there is not. Especially at the higher end of beef the AA and HE brands qs well as 30 day ages beef has changed the market.

    As well in the city the rent of retail units is colossal. You need a couple K margin/week before you have a bob for yourself. The lads that are surviving ate the ones that own there own premises

    There is two side to every story. However the deposit is 10%, on new houses the government gives HTB which is 30k ( that is approximately the tax paid by a couple both earning 40k over three years)

    Ya if you are buying secondhand you need to save it yourself. But even a 500k house probably needs about 60K between deposit and legal fees and odds and ends on a second hand house.

    On a new house taking the 30k in tax refund it leaves the necessity to find another 30k. The biggest problem is supply. There are some on here that think supply will magically restart in 3-6 months time. Or if the LA start building it will add to supply. The limiting factor is labour. In Dublin that is exasperated by the fact that 50% of that labour travels in and out every day adding 3-400/unit minimum in extra cost. This in turn sets the Dublin labour rates.

    Prices are probably sustainable outside Dublin as the cost of traveling is not a factor. There is huge pent up demand outside Dublin. If materials prices drop 20% and labour costs slightly then building will continue and refurbishment and extensions will take off.

    But for Dublin its a different issue. It's hard to fit a round peg I a square hoke

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,010 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    You also need to take into account that people are buying later in life too. You're not seeing many 25 year old, on a 25 year old's wages, going out and buying a house. The person who is buying their house is probably more likely to be buying it based off a 35 year old's wages. That makes a large difference too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    I would argue that Cabinteely is a great area, at least for a family. Good transport links, excellent schools and green areas/sports clubs aplenty. For 2nd hand homes it offers what passes for decent value in this market.

    Agree that those apartments are way overpriced, though - you can get a house in Cabinteely for the price of that 2bed 2bath!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The wages argument is bogus. Interest are very low, even still. What matters is affordadability. Only for a relatively brief period were houses affordable for young single people. There was an excess of credit for a few years. In 1980 there were only 4 restaurants in Ballsbridge. People did not have money then for eating out. Houses were bought and furnished slowly. It might take years to achieve anything like modern standards. House had no insulation, single glaze wooden windows, one bathroom an a few kitchen units.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,724 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    40 years ago a 25 year old could be 10-12 years working, today a 35 year old might be similar. It was common for so e young lads to start apprenticeship's at 14-15 years of age.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Administrators Posts: 54,568 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Why would you compare houses in 1980 to modern standards? Of course nobody was buying houses at modern standards in the 80s, they were buying houses built to 60s/70s/80s standards. They were modern back then.

    Houses were bought and furnished slowly, but the key thing here is that houses were bought. Even average working people were able to buy houses, yes they had to sacrifice and save, but it was possible. You could even buy a family home on a single income, good luck with that today!

    Interest rates are low now compared to then, but interest rates are totally irrelevant if houses are priced beyond your earnings to start with.

    Buying a house should involve sacrifice and careful money management. Unfortunately, buying a house is just absolutely impossible for too many today, not because they are bad with their money, but because house prices have gone up a lot and wages have not kept up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,724 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Because comparing a new house now to 40 years ago is comparing apples and oranges.

    Back then houses were as CH described. A lot of work was carried out after the house was purchased. Lawns, painting, boundary walls and fencing etc. People often started with second hand furniture. People who did a self build moved in with 3-4 rooms completed, a single bedroom, kitchen bathroom. Using polybond on floors to stop the dust rising.

    People now often drift through there twenties. Relationship's are away easier to start and some people ended up starting family's in rented accomodation without considering the conquences.

    The product you get now is totally different. Most new houses will require no money spend for 10+ years and even then it will be lifestyle choices

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Administrators Posts: 54,568 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    People would happily carry out work now on houses after they are purchased if it was in any way cost effective to do so. But again, it's the same problem, it just works out way too expensive. Banks have little interest in lending you money to buy a shitbox and then lending you more money to do it up over time. It's just too risky for them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,052 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Mandated to buy every apartment going, sounds like the government is actively bailing out investment funds that want too offload apartments. I think we will look back in anger at how the golden goose of high corporate tax was absolutely pissed away by stupid decisions the last few years.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That infers that investment funds are selling the apartments that they own, I haven't seen any evidence to show that... Have you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Times have changed. There used to be cheap clubs where young people could mix. Not so much anymore.

    People still want to hook up but it's more expensive now...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Surely do its better for a builder to make some kind of profit as apposed to going on the dole?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    It's worse than that; the government is bailing the funds out by renting all their ridiculously overpriced apartments for the long-term so the funds will still own the asset! The whole property market is a con and the money that the country benefitted from the last few years has been spaffed up the wall instead of investing in a sustainable future for the country. Will FF and FG heads roll for being responsible for all of the wasted spending? Absolutely not and the worst part is that the Irish taxpayers will be the ones to suffer once again when, next year, things are clearly going sour in the economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,052 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Did you see what our neighbors in Britain are after doing, which for the most case will soften the house price crash big time. This will mean that if you are unable to pay your mortgage due to higher rates and/or job loss you can apply for a mortgage interest payment relief scheme loan after only 3 months, so you can effectively add more debt onto your existing unaffordable mortgage to help ensure there are no defaults and stop a crash like 08 happening again. Seemingly it was buried in small print in the middle of their Autumn Statement 'Free Market' my brown bollix.

    Wouldn't be surprised if our shower adapt it over here soon.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/mortgage-relief-scheme-hidden-autumn-statement-could-cushion/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 398 ✭✭jimmybobbyschweiz


    The UK scheme is ridiculous and the simple concept of living within one's means has been totally disregarded and ignored to basically prop up extremely wealthy asset owners at the expense of non-asset owners. Can't afford the mortgage or general living expenses, but you own a home? Sell up and adjust the housing situation. The most discriminated against in the whole property market pyramid scheme are those who are renting and looking to buy a home as policy is being driven to prop up homeowners rather than quench house prices and increase supply to benefit those looking to buy*. The market consequently is just strangled and does not move and function freely. The two questions are how the minority, who actually benefit from consistently high and constantly increasing house prices and rents, have so much control over the market and how this can be sustainable as property, like with crypto or shares, is not in fact divorced from the real economy so, quite simply, there is no such thing as runaway housing costs in isolation to the wider economy and 100% increases in housing costs in ten years is, in short, a massive red flag that the whole thing is not sustainable.

    *Those looking to buy also includes existing homeowners and not just non-homeowners.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    You bare comparing buying today with buying years ago. It cost less to build house years ago. Very little was put into them and consequently it was economic to build them. Now that building regulations mandate a higher spec, fewer house are being built with a resulting shortage forcing up prices.

    The average working person could not buy a spec built house years ago. They got a council house, after having a few kids to qualify, and them bought the house from the councuil after a number of years. Single people hardly ever bought houses before the equal pay Act of 1977. House buying of spec built huoses was confined to professionals, middle and senior public servants and senior managers in the private sector.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    A builder has to take chances when taking on a job. he has to risk things going wrong through his own mistake or that of his employees, mistakes by suppliers that he ends up paying for and customers refusing to pay. When margins are too tight there is a risk of working at a loss or earning little or nothing. Dole may well be a better option particularly if the occasional risk free nixer comes by.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,004 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Voting FG and FF out will make diddly squat of a difference. What we will get in their stead is either Labor or Sinn Fein, and nothing that they offer is all that different. They will continue to pursue policies that support neo-liberal and globalist agendas.

    Aside from the above, even with a change in government, the senior civil servants, NGOs and other interest groups that operate in the background will not be voted out of power.

    Lastly, let's not pretend that a very large number of people are not doing very nicely out of this. My uncle, only recently, treated me to a boastful recounting of how he's making a killing off a rental property. How many people are in this position? How many more are living in houses with no mortgage and only hear about the housing crisis from the news? If it's not a problem, one is unlikely to care.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i think a sf lead government will try to be different, but will struggle to be, the world is now extremely complex, with most institutions based on neoliberal/neoclassical ideologies, it wont be easy to change these institutions, if may in fact be impossible, but we have to try, and voting alternatives is critical for this attempt...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,762 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    SF are going to try to punish middle earners... However their voters don't seem to realise, that even though they struggle like most, they are mostly middle earners.... The country will start to suffer fairly quickly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    not at all, squeezed middle votes are actually needed to form the next government, if sf continues the trend of further squeezing, they may forget about maintaining that government, sf will also more than likely require a couple of terms to get to grips with things, as you can be damn sure issues such as our housing problems wont be solved in the next few years, no matter what, and again, middle votes will be required for all of that, so......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Absolutely, well said. A builder can end up with big loss, not worth it.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    You obviously havent asked any millennials to cut out those things. People of our generation did that, but ask a millennial to do it and they will be straight on to social media to blame you for some random thing in their lives :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    People dont buy on their own anymore like they used to either. So you have to count a double income against house prices now, the same as you would have counted one income back in the 80s and 90s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...and their consumption behaviors are absolutely causing their inability to get access to property markets, and has nothing to do with polices that are directly causing the inflation of property prices!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,004 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    Did you not know? The Millennial inability to find housing is due to a proclivity for avocado toast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I aint so sure, these lads have been creaming it for a few years now it will be hard to go from that high to the dole, more and more people dont pay in cash and the customer base they are working from has seen their take home pay stretched with day to day spend. I think builders are going to have to really cut their cloth in order to remain in the game.



This discussion has been closed.
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