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Softening house market?

1676870727387

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    They don't stay in the game when it gets rough. After the fall of the Celtic tiger, there were builders tools for sale at auction for years after wards.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,112 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tar.Aldarion


    When I got the keys last week I went out for an avocado toast to celebrate



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    This recession will be nothing like the last one, celtic tiger we built too much there is still work there if the price comes down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    disgraceful carry on, f you jack!

    funnily enough we didnt, we had excess houses in the wrong places, and a deficit in others, most notably in the dublin region



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 542 ✭✭✭boomshakalaka


    Anecdotal but contacted a few properties requesting a viewing in Galway/Limerick commuter towns. Had been on daft well over a month, one nearly two months. Bids currently at 5-10% over asking.


    Not so sure about softening just yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭herbalplants



    In the meantime, what you could buy an hour and 45 minutes away from Dublin for 200k Stg.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I have friends trying to buy in Galway. Sounds like it’s still crazy there…..little sign of a slowdown for places in turnkey condition from what I’m told



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,595 ✭✭✭Dante


    Yeah, things are still crazy in Dublin too. I have bidded on 3 houses over the past month which have all ended up going for way over asking. I still find that asking prices still have absolutely no bearing on what houses end up going for, so all these slight decreases mean jack **** really.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,842 ✭✭✭wassie


    Keep and eye on them and see if the sale falls over and gets re-lised. Im seeing this happen qute a bit.

    lot of people have AIPs in place from earlier in the year when rates were lower. They are going sale agreed at their maximum then when seeking to get the mortgage, they find out lender has now re-assessed their servicability requirements due to higher interest rates, resulting in less money being offered.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Remember that your mortgage is stress tested at 2% above current rates, so there may not be as many banks withdrawing their approval.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,500 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    If you could get Irish wages living in NI you'd be on a winner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The nature of the recession is irrelevant. You are making the mistake of thinking builders are a fixed group who want to stay in the business. Like every business when it doesn't pay enough or at all people give it up and move to something else. Deregulation was supposed to produce an abundance of taxis. Now there aren't enough taxis. Despite record rents landlords are selling up. Builders simply wont reduce margins below an economic level.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Honestly you think they would rather take a 100% cut in pay as apposed to say 10/20% cut in pay, really? The thing is their pay has ballooned up over the course of the last 5 years due to demand going through the roof and the horsesh1t of it being blamed solely on raw materials is just that, builders wages have gone up a hell of lot and that is by looking at the increase in the pricing of individual jobs in the last 12 to 18 months and taking away the raw material costs... This demand for construction is now on the floor. So you think they will take 100% cut and sit on the dole (I hope they saved their pennies when they were working) as apposed to a smaller cut 10/20% to their wage. Interesting, but I cant see your logic, I mean if we all took that approach no one would be working in Ireland with the impact inflation has had on wage in real terms. Your mistake is realizing people in the round want to work and builders like us mere mortals have bills to pay too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Not as much of a winner as it used to be. My sister lives in Lisburn and was working for a tech company in Dublin for the last 6 or 7 years. She found it grand until brexit. Shes having to do tax returns now in 2 different countries now even though she is PAYE and her HR department are having a nightmare. She is looking for a job in Belfast now because its such a pain. She said it was easy as p1ss before brexit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    We are Looking at selling at the moment in Castletroy....4 otherhouses in the same estate (same size - 3 bed semis) have sold in the last 6 months.....all sold for overasking by 5-10k......most recent was today and has gone sale agreed for the asking price.....

    We will be putting our house up for what that has sold for (exactly the same house)...

    No sign of softening here.....

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Keep us up to Date Steven be interesting to see if the new lending rules have an impact on your sale and by your very commentary it would suggest the market is softening if 3 sold above asking and the latest only achieved asking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Apologies for the misunderstanding....the most recent house sold for the asking price (which was set 10k above the others that sold for 5-10k over asking)....

    According to the estate agent there was always good interest in houses that are ready to go.......

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 100 ✭✭redsheeps


    I'd imagine also that that location is a prime area to buy to possibly rent to students in UL? Good locations and good properties will still likely draw interest.

    Best of luck with the sale!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It is not a 100% cut in pay if they go into a different business or go abroad. It can be a 100% cut in pay to take on bad contracts in any event.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The same issues with regards to construction costs that are in Ireland are global and in Ireland there is still building needed. So what other business can they go into and also Nixers without paying VAT are fastly becoming a thing of the past due to moving to cashless and companies are under more scrutiny. So what other business can a builder jump into during a recession where jobs are being lost?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    There are particular issues in Ireland. There is a very different bad debt culture in Ireland to other places. There is always cash work doing domestic small repairs. You don't understand business. It is not a question of trimming prices by 10% or whatever, it is operating in a business where the risks become greater than the potential rewards. Bad debts will increase in a recession and hence the risk of taking on a job. One bad debt could wipe out a years earnings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Ireland has record savings and full employment. Have you any comparisons to other countries with regards to bad debts I know Germany have been topping the charts in Europe for this. I do understand business its you who doesn't get it. Your trying to paint a picture that a builder would rather go on the dole than drop their level of wages and I have contended that with inflation the whole of the Irish work force would not go to work with the levels of inflation vs real wage rises. What is the risk in lowering your wage to try and compete for work?? These guys have indemnity insurance so if there is a mess on the job also if prices for raw materials rise they will in my experience have it in the contract that this cost will be passed on to the customer. So where exactly is the risk? They also insist on payment before the work is done so the risk of someone not paying them is negated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    In the UK if you don't pay an invoice within 30 days without a good excuse, it is a criminal offence. people pay their bills in England. Builders in ireland are always being stung. It is not a question of dropping their level of wages, it is not getting a wage at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    As I pointed out builders usually get a deposit up front and then they always get paid ahead of doing the work I have had 3 jobs done and that's how it has always worked so they always got their wage before the job or the weeks work was done and got paid so far in advanced that they went off doing other jobs and leaving my job on the long finger. This is the system here so there is little if no risk of a builder not getting their wage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,198 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Clearly, when I refused to join a blind auction I didn't buy those properties.

    A blind auction where you don't know if there is anyone else involved is a very handy tool to squeeze every last drop of blood out of you. Hopefully they will one day be made illegal.

    That said, not all properties are the subject of a blind auction, so if you are flexible and not tied to a specific area you will find a suitable property. One property is enough for most of us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,589 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    debt issues are a global problem, we re not alone with it, or currently one of the worst, data slightly out of date but...




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Will the developer's develop. That's the question, some small builders might still get small jobs but if the developers are not developing offices or houses where will the majority of builders get work?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,691 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    This is untrue. In the absence of agreed payment terms and invoice becomes payable within 30 days and a statutory demand may be issued in respect if it and interest may be applied. This provides certainty as to when a CIVIL legal claim may be pursued through the courts. It does not amount to a criminal offence - that would require the existence of dishonesty.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Thank you Claw Hammer for properly explaining it. Some people don't get it.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭drogon.


    Comparing any figure to GDP in Ireland can be very misleading, you should be using GNI instead.

    The ESRI notes that Ireland’s debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, which is typically used in assessments of sovereign debt, stood at a relatively low 59 per cent in 2020, albeit acknowledging “the well-known difficulties with GDP in an Irish context”. When using debt-to-GNI* (modified gross national income, the Central Statistics Office’s bespoke measure), our ratio rises to 105 per cent.

    ....

    In 2019, Ireland's debt-to-tax receipts ratio was 2.6. In terms of a euro zone comparison, this wasn't as high as Greece, Italy, Portugal or Spain but was – as the ESRI notes – at the higher end of the distribution, suggesting Ireland is one of the more indebted countries in Europe.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123


    But this is why I am questioning it do they pack it in and go on the dole or try and reduce their wages to compete? The idea that they can either leave and go to a different country where the same issues are there that Ireland face with regards to building is farcical if anything Ireland is under supplied and the government are incentivizing building. The other theory is they will go into a different business? I mean we are hitting a recession are builders going to retrain and work in IT or Pharma or something else and then the last option is they will simply go onto the dole - like they dont have bills to pay.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,540 ✭✭✭fliball123




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭straight



    House prices were way higher in the Celtic tiger and wages were lower.

    There is plenty houses in cork city for under 250k. It's not difficult to save 30k between two people over 5 years. It's only 50 or 60 euro per week like.

    People seem to have so much money for fashion, image, coffee, restaurants, holidays, the list goes on. There was never so many eateries and coffee shops in the country.

    People never had it so good if you ask me but sure you can't open you're mouth in case you might hurt someones feelings. 😂😂😂



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  • Administrators Posts: 54,568 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    People were taking out 100%+ mortgages in the Tiger and buying multiple properties. Ireland was churning out multiples of what it produces today in terms of new property.

    Are you really going to suggest it was more difficult to get on the ladder during the 00s?

    It was too easy, unfortunately a mistake that today's buyers are paying for (and getting sneered at for complaining about it).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,000 ✭✭✭Stone Deaf 4evr


    With all due respect, 'getting jobs done' does not equate to getting a house built.

    self builds in Ireland generally operate on a stage payment basis with the mortgage company releasing funds as each stage is complete.

    a typical arrangement is as follows

    1. foundations and subfloors
    2. Main blockwork
    3. Roof Complete
    4. Plastering complete
    5. power on & heating running / 2nd fix joinery
    6. Snagging and handover

    each of those stages apart from the last once could be north of 50,000, and you're relying on engineers, solicitors and lenders to all fulfill their obligations in a timely manner to get funds released as agreed, the reality is, all it takes is one person in the chain to make a mistake, go on holidays etc, and the builder can be left carrying the can in the meantime. And by and large, work does not stop, it continues as stuff like plant and scaffolding is on hire and incurring costs, dates have been given to subcontractors, who are hard to get, and them taking on projects elsewhere will only lead to further delays and compounding costs.

    Its often the case at the end, where the budget has been blown, and its the builder whos left hanging, the homeowner has moved in, and its a nightmare to collect the final balance as the funds just arent there. You can't keep people out of their houses, as by this point they'l now essentially be paying back a full mortgage as well as rent.

    Source? - Myself, been in the game nearly 20 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭straight


    Myself and most of my friends bought in the noughties due to our age and bad luck. Mortgages weren't as freely available as you may be led to believe. Prices were sky high and alot of the houses were built in the wrong locations and were since knocked. Build quality was a joke compared to now.

    My story is very similar to alot of my generation. Bought a house at the top of the market out of desperation alot of the time. House value fell to half and got feck all help from anyone. Also interest rates increased making mortgages unaffordable. The smart people had a right laugh at the "fools" that bought because rent was so cheap, and to be fair rent was very cheap and had to rise to some degree but obviously not to today's level. Many people were stuck in apartments and the like which were supposed to be a starter home but they've ended up living there with their whole family. I had to work my ass off and save like hell to get out of my mess. I built another house which cost me 300k in 2014. With the new regs and inflation you wouldn't build it for 600k today. I built it out of savings. My old negative equity house is rented out for 1100 euro per month and is still in negative equity with interest rates rising again. It's worth at least double on the open market but I wouldn't charge that much even if I was allowed. So I got screwed on the way down and I'm not allowed to benefit on the way up.

    Alot of the problem now is that the government said everybody needs to build a top of the range house. But not everyone can afford a top of the range house.

    We're all only trying to get a house and raise our families and that's the story all over the world. No need for half of this one generation vs another BS.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,004 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    On my first week in college in 2006, I was offered a 15k loan by bank who cold-called me. I had little savings, feck all employment history and no demonstrable ability to repay a loan. Naturally, I didn't the money, and I thank my past-self for knowing not to accept the devil's shilling, but that's the kind of thing that was happening in Celtic Tiger Ireland.

    Simply put, it was beyond easy to buy property back then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭straight


    What property were you going to buy with 15k? It's more likely that if you foolishly accepted it you wouldn't have been able to buy any property and if you did you wouldn't be able to afford the repayments on the mortgage plus the short term loan you just took out. Then you would have ended up in negative equity and lost everything plus some more. I know people still paying back for that kind of stuff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,004 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    The point I was making is that credit was incredibly available back then. I didn't take it because I had, and still do to a point, an aversion to debt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,178 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    Propertys going Sale Agreed that are not even turnkey in the more established City areas in Galway City for sure; see signs going up and 3/4 week later Sale Agreed on them. Speaking earlier this week with local estate agent he said not as many bidding wars that were common here in 2021 but that demand in the City for 3/4 bed houses was still strong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭straight


    You said it was easy to get a mortgage because you were offered a 15k short term loan. I have more than that as a credit limit on my credit card now. It doesn't mean mortgages are freely available.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 767 ✭✭✭dontmindme


    What's going on with this one?

    Sale agreed and ad last updated in early August, yet ad appears with a 5k price decrease in today's price changes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    I am talking about the attitude to debt, not the quantumj of debt. This post is irrelevant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It is more than obvious that you don't see it. You had 3 building jobs done, foolishly paid all the money in advance of completion .

    Now you claim to be an expert on the building trade and to have a deep knowledge of builders psychology and thinking processes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,004 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    No, I gave an anecdotal story on the availability of credit in 2006. I didn't mention anything about today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    There is a separate crimunal offence of not paying an invoice as well. The civil right to interest derives from European law.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,010 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Poster clearly made a point about the situation in 2006. They are correct. I know someone who left college with multiple of 5-figure debt purely because the bank kept throwing money at them that they didn't need. Their family bailed them out but in reality the debt should have been written off for predatory lending.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,010 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Interesting. What is the required mens rea for just not being able to pay the debt when it falls due?


    HArdly a strict liability criminal offence?



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