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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    NASAMs was in the last few days, clearly identifiable fragments of the missile at the scene.

    Plenty of pics of S300 damage in the past, claimed to be russian S300s launched into Ukraine. The NY times article shows another instance of an AGM-88 hitting an apartment building in Kramatorsk in september



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Long Range ICBM such as minuteman are kinda of defunct at the minute (no pun intended), they carry the W78 warhead (about 300kt)

    A NATO strike would more likely be carried out by a Submarine carrying Trident II missiles with a W88 warhead (about 450kt)

    A tactical strike with a smaller warhead could potentially be carried out by an F-22 (Or other stealth fighter with a large enough bay to house an B61)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,159 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Beyond the basic stuff we all share as humans some parts of "Russian Culture" can be a very different mindset and not one that's particularly recognisable to other European cultures. Take something like going on demonstration marches. Non government approved ones of course. They're a given. In "the West" we kinda take these for granted, even if we might not agree with the marchers. People march shout slogans carry placards etc and you have police standing by. If it goes south then you can even have riot police to disperse the crowd. Normal stuff. Meanwhile in Russia...

    When the vids came out from Russia of people being just picked up off the street for protesting, or even having a blank sheet of paper, or even in one case a woman being interviewed condeming the protests was whisked away, to gauge their reactions/opinions I asked a couple of Russians I knew what was going on, including one who I know disproves of this war. Their take was the same; Russian authorities and the general public feel anti authority marches can be dangerous to society and can easily get out of control, so Russian police take the approach of nipping it in the bud early so they don't have to rely on riot police trying to control a much bigger crowd and failing. Even that fewer people might get hurt. Yep. Their society is deathly afraid of societal chaos of any sort and of course their rulers keep this fear going. This is an even bigger fear for those who lived through the actual chaos of the 90's. There can be very much a vibe of indoor versus outdoor opinions.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,159 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    WW2 flak was pretty innacurate and you also run the big risk of all that hot metal flying around and coming back down.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The socalled Russian bear went from bear to teddy bear in the first two weeks of the war when their super military was exposed.

    And i know what state their in,i happened to work in Russia just before the invasion.

    And the country itself looks great from Moscow but not outside in the smaller villages around moscow.

    Remember soviet union was experts in deception and misinformation,and Russia isnt any better

    Potemkin villages



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Any links to that?Strange that wasnt all over the news then?

    And HARM missiles goes for radars and if a apartment block is in the way of the radar,then it will happen or its being decoyed away.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    So that's a no then other than the NYTimes article concerning a harm missle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,435 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    think this was an issue with the German V2 in WW2. The Brits worked out more would die from AA fire than the actual bomb itself.

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,649 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    there's talk of using Barrage Balloons to protect key infra from drone strikes. WWI tech, strange but in theory it could potentially work and it would be cheap and easily deployable



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Why would it be in the news? We are only now seeing reports of events that happened in september with missiles accidentally hitting civilian targets, it could be next year before this is reported in papers, if an investigation happens on the ground in the first place.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,159 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It's pretty clear that NATO has no intention of getting dragged into this. Not without major provocation, which putin won't do. He's not a fool, at least on this subject. Neither are NATO. They give two hoots about his conventional forces, but the old doctrine of MAD is still in play on both sides.

    Two examples: The French stated that even if putin were to detonate a nuke in Ukraine they would not retaliate with nukes of their own as it would not be an attack on France. The US have been pretty open in saying that if putin escalated to nukes Russia's conventional forces would be in serious trouble. But no nukes. The missile that landed in Poland killing two Poles another better example. The US were very quick to say nope, looks like a Ukrainian air defence missile went rogue, even when Zelensky was not happy and saying it was definitely Russian and they weren't allowed investigate the site themselves. Zelensky may want NATO to get "official" or naturally get more NATO help coming out of that, but NATO didn't bite. For all the Pro Russian eejits looking for NATO false flags, that missile in Poland was a gift wrapped in a bow for NATO. If they wanted to take it. Clearly they didn't.

    NATO are prefectly happy with supplying intel and weapons to Ukraine. It's bleeding Russia out without having to ramp things up, go in, inevitably lose NATO personnel(unlike Russia this matters) and possibly escalate to nukes. It's also an absolute bargain costwise, even earns money for the arms industry and is a testing ground and major advertising for future sales. Feck all will be buying Russian militay kit after this, that's for sure. NATO 1, Russia 0.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, but I still wouldn't want to test the state of their nukes though. According to armscontrol.org (2020 figures) Russia has 320 land based missiles with 1180 warheads. Say only 30% of them worked, thats still about 350 warheads hitting their targets. The resulting destruction would be off the scale.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,225 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    All this is well & good Wibbs but any successful army must also have a civil society behind it. It's not enough for NATO & allies to just supply Ukrainian military with weapons and munitions. NATO & allies have also got to figure out how to stop the ongoing attacks on civil infrastructure in Ukraine. This was anticipated and why Ukraine were calling for a no fly zone over Ukraine early in the war. Russia's tactics are plain to be seen, what will NATO & allies do to stymie these attacks before it's too late.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    No. No-fly zone equals escalation with all the unintended consequences that that entails as Wibbs has outlined. NATO is absolutely right to pursue its current strategy in my view. Loads of you are saying what an appalling state Russia and its military are in. Why not give it more time to see what happens because of this?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,520 ✭✭✭jmreire




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,520 ✭✭✭jmreire


    To be honest pcardin, that's a bit unfair to animals, but I don't have an apt name to describe them either, except escapees from hell, because the do fit that bill.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,571 ✭✭✭✭Mr. CooL ICE


    I don't work with any russian speakers, but used to work with a load of them in a call centre a good few years back. They were collectively known as "the russians" but in reality, very few, if any of them were from russia; they were mostly from the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. I got on well with them but was never friendly enough to remain in contact. But by god, I'd love to pick their brains right now.

    I don't use FB much but am friends with some of them, and curiosity got the better of me. Didn't see a thing posted from any of them. A few of them seemed to be spending most of the summer on holidays going by the sheer amount of beach-with-drinks selfies, but that's it. Going by their social media output, there isn't any war going on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,520 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I'm looking forward to the day Ukraine will have peace talks with Ruzzia because it will mean two things: (1) They will have beaten the Ruzzians out of Ukrainian territory completely and (2) Russia will have sued for peace, and the agreement will be on Ukrainian terms.

    Slave Ukraini .



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,827 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Russia have been using their S300 in a ground attack role for quite sometime. So a Russian s300 missile hitting a Ukrainian apartment building is not evidence of a misfire or accident etc... It's actually evidence of a war crime.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Then it should have reached the news by now if that was the case,dont you think?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Russias precision guided misses from the soviet era have 60% failure rate in Ukraine,i somehow doubt Russias nuclear soviet era missiles are any better.

    You need to maintain and upgrade to be able to make old missiles work,and with russias corruption,i somehow doubt it.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/up-to-60-failure-rate-for-some-russian-missiles-in-ukraine-us-officials-say/



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,520 ✭✭✭jmreire


    How would they feel? I'd say it's a fair bet that the only problem they would have with it is that they could not do it themselves personally. There's a post back a bit showing a twitter feed where an elderly lady who had lived under Ruzzian occupation for several months, showing her handing coils of machine gun ammunition to a Ukrainian soldier, and telling him " Kill the Bastards, kill them all every last one of them". And that would be a very popular mindset in Ukraine now and who could blame them? Let any poster on here who is proposing basically peace at any price, don't bomb Ruzzia etc, go and live in Ukraine (or any bombed city in the world) and see how you feel then about the bombers.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,159 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    That's assuming NATO wants to get directly involved Furze. They clearly don't. It would be "bad business". So far. Which also takes putin's "argument" that NATO were threatening Russia and that's why he had to start this war and blows it out of the water. Just add it to the existing pile of his bullshít reasons.

    A no fly zone is simply a non runner. That's a direct escalation and one of the first things that would happen is putin would send a few sacrificial lambs in aircraft to be shot down by NATO. NATO knows this, putin knows this. Hell, Zelensky knows this. He quite rightly asks for the impossible to get more of the possible and that has worked very well so far. He'll likely get more AA systems than he would otherwise.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,520 ✭✭✭jmreire


    It was always this. Nato encroachment was ever only the thinly fabricated excuse to make it palatable. The same NATO countrys existed before and while Yanukovych was president of Ukraine but was not a problem then. It was only when Putin's stooge was dethroned that NATO became such a threat that an invasion and complete takeover of Ukraine was essential to Putin's plans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,225 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    So you believe that Ukrainian civil society should just suck it up and be collateral damage? Even if that affects their military capacity to drive the Russians out?

    How would you propose to have them defend themselves? Or maybe you don't and would be happy to see the military effort undermined?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So you're allowing a 40% success rate for their nukes too (better than my guess, 30%) which would suggest about 475 warheads reaching their targets? Outcome is still devastating for those on the receiving end. Here's an interesting piece from 2005. It believes there was an 8% failure rate for all missiles launched by the Strategic Rocket forces.




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,435 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I approve of this.

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,054 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    A no fly zone leading to a direct NATO-Russia confrontation would arguably be worse for the Ukrainian citizens, as they would be caught in an even worse crossfire.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,225 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    "one of the first things that would happen is putin would send a few sacrificial lambs in aircraft to be shot down by NATO."

    And what would happen then Wibbs? Assuming NATO & allies apply a defensive no fly zone, would Putin keep sending in sacrificial planes? Obviously NATO would have to destroy any ground based Russian military units seeking to down the NATO planes. But assuming they could limit this to occupied Ukrainian territories, there would be no direct attack on Russian territory. The point is that Russia would like to avoid confrontation with NATO etc, why not put the ball in their court and let them decide whether to take the gamble. It's a logical next step and one that needs to be taken quickly.



This discussion has been closed.
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