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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,234 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Thank you Claw Hammer for properly explaining it. Some people don't get it.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 722 ✭✭✭drogon.


    Comparing any figure to GDP in Ireland can be very misleading, you should be using GNI instead.

    The ESRI notes that Ireland’s debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio, which is typically used in assessments of sovereign debt, stood at a relatively low 59 per cent in 2020, albeit acknowledging “the well-known difficulties with GDP in an Irish context”. When using debt-to-GNI* (modified gross national income, the Central Statistics Office’s bespoke measure), our ratio rises to 105 per cent.

    ....

    In 2019, Ireland's debt-to-tax receipts ratio was 2.6. In terms of a euro zone comparison, this wasn't as high as Greece, Italy, Portugal or Spain but was – as the ESRI notes – at the higher end of the distribution, suggesting Ireland is one of the more indebted countries in Europe.




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    But this is why I am questioning it do they pack it in and go on the dole or try and reduce their wages to compete? The idea that they can either leave and go to a different country where the same issues are there that Ireland face with regards to building is farcical if anything Ireland is under supplied and the government are incentivizing building. The other theory is they will go into a different business? I mean we are hitting a recession are builders going to retrain and work in IT or Pharma or something else and then the last option is they will simply go onto the dole - like they dont have bills to pay.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭straight



    House prices were way higher in the Celtic tiger and wages were lower.

    There is plenty houses in cork city for under 250k. It's not difficult to save 30k between two people over 5 years. It's only 50 or 60 euro per week like.

    People seem to have so much money for fashion, image, coffee, restaurants, holidays, the list goes on. There was never so many eateries and coffee shops in the country.

    People never had it so good if you ask me but sure you can't open you're mouth in case you might hurt someones feelings. 😂😂😂



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    People were taking out 100%+ mortgages in the Tiger and buying multiple properties. Ireland was churning out multiples of what it produces today in terms of new property.

    Are you really going to suggest it was more difficult to get on the ladder during the 00s?

    It was too easy, unfortunately a mistake that today's buyers are paying for (and getting sneered at for complaining about it).



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,000 ✭✭✭Stone Deaf 4evr


    With all due respect, 'getting jobs done' does not equate to getting a house built.

    self builds in Ireland generally operate on a stage payment basis with the mortgage company releasing funds as each stage is complete.

    a typical arrangement is as follows

    1. foundations and subfloors
    2. Main blockwork
    3. Roof Complete
    4. Plastering complete
    5. power on & heating running / 2nd fix joinery
    6. Snagging and handover

    each of those stages apart from the last once could be north of 50,000, and you're relying on engineers, solicitors and lenders to all fulfill their obligations in a timely manner to get funds released as agreed, the reality is, all it takes is one person in the chain to make a mistake, go on holidays etc, and the builder can be left carrying the can in the meantime. And by and large, work does not stop, it continues as stuff like plant and scaffolding is on hire and incurring costs, dates have been given to subcontractors, who are hard to get, and them taking on projects elsewhere will only lead to further delays and compounding costs.

    Its often the case at the end, where the budget has been blown, and its the builder whos left hanging, the homeowner has moved in, and its a nightmare to collect the final balance as the funds just arent there. You can't keep people out of their houses, as by this point they'l now essentially be paying back a full mortgage as well as rent.

    Source? - Myself, been in the game nearly 20 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭straight


    Myself and most of my friends bought in the noughties due to our age and bad luck. Mortgages weren't as freely available as you may be led to believe. Prices were sky high and alot of the houses were built in the wrong locations and were since knocked. Build quality was a joke compared to now.

    My story is very similar to alot of my generation. Bought a house at the top of the market out of desperation alot of the time. House value fell to half and got feck all help from anyone. Also interest rates increased making mortgages unaffordable. The smart people had a right laugh at the "fools" that bought because rent was so cheap, and to be fair rent was very cheap and had to rise to some degree but obviously not to today's level. Many people were stuck in apartments and the like which were supposed to be a starter home but they've ended up living there with their whole family. I had to work my ass off and save like hell to get out of my mess. I built another house which cost me 300k in 2014. With the new regs and inflation you wouldn't build it for 600k today. I built it out of savings. My old negative equity house is rented out for 1100 euro per month and is still in negative equity with interest rates rising again. It's worth at least double on the open market but I wouldn't charge that much even if I was allowed. So I got screwed on the way down and I'm not allowed to benefit on the way up.

    Alot of the problem now is that the government said everybody needs to build a top of the range house. But not everyone can afford a top of the range house.

    We're all only trying to get a house and raise our families and that's the story all over the world. No need for half of this one generation vs another BS.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    On my first week in college in 2006, I was offered a 15k loan by bank who cold-called me. I had little savings, feck all employment history and no demonstrable ability to repay a loan. Naturally, I didn't the money, and I thank my past-self for knowing not to accept the devil's shilling, but that's the kind of thing that was happening in Celtic Tiger Ireland.

    Simply put, it was beyond easy to buy property back then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭straight


    What property were you going to buy with 15k? It's more likely that if you foolishly accepted it you wouldn't have been able to buy any property and if you did you wouldn't be able to afford the repayments on the mortgage plus the short term loan you just took out. Then you would have ended up in negative equity and lost everything plus some more. I know people still paying back for that kind of stuff.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    The point I was making is that credit was incredibly available back then. I didn't take it because I had, and still do to a point, an aversion to debt.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭what_traffic


    Propertys going Sale Agreed that are not even turnkey in the more established City areas in Galway City for sure; see signs going up and 3/4 week later Sale Agreed on them. Speaking earlier this week with local estate agent he said not as many bidding wars that were common here in 2021 but that demand in the City for 3/4 bed houses was still strong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭straight


    You said it was easy to get a mortgage because you were offered a 15k short term loan. I have more than that as a credit limit on my credit card now. It doesn't mean mortgages are freely available.



  • Registered Users Posts: 753 ✭✭✭dontmindme


    What's going on with this one?

    Sale agreed and ad last updated in early August, yet ad appears with a 5k price decrease in today's price changes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    I am talking about the attitude to debt, not the quantumj of debt. This post is irrelevant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It is more than obvious that you don't see it. You had 3 building jobs done, foolishly paid all the money in advance of completion .

    Now you claim to be an expert on the building trade and to have a deep knowledge of builders psychology and thinking processes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    No, I gave an anecdotal story on the availability of credit in 2006. I didn't mention anything about today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    There is a separate crimunal offence of not paying an invoice as well. The civil right to interest derives from European law.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Poster clearly made a point about the situation in 2006. They are correct. I know someone who left college with multiple of 5-figure debt purely because the bank kept throwing money at them that they didn't need. Their family bailed them out but in reality the debt should have been written off for predatory lending.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Interesting. What is the required mens rea for just not being able to pay the debt when it falls due?


    HArdly a strict liability criminal offence?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,234 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Well said. Now people are more concerned about how they look on Instagram or sorry Insta 🤣

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,812 ✭✭✭straight


    No such thing as paying for a car anymore. It's all credit, PCP and all that crap. I bought a car recently, paid upfront for it and the salesman nearly fell off his chair with shock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,234 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    But why cry! It was your responsibility to say No just as you did say No. But why do you think it is always someone else responsible for your decision! It is your responsibility, something that perhaps never too late to learn. Just cause you are offered a big loan from the bank, it is your responsibility to check if you can can repay.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,234 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    🤣. Same as me, I always go for a few years old car and pay in full. People want to buy everything new now. I never see now a person buying a house for example and having second hand furniture, everything is brand new, then they winge.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭DRedSky


    AIB is to increase the interest rate it charges for new fixed rate mortgages by another 0.5%.

    It is the second rate increase by the bank since Octobe

    The changes, which take place from close of business today, will not affect existing fixed rate mortgage holders with the bank or those with variable rates.

    Borrowers with tracker mortgages have already seen their rates increase in line with European Central Bank changes.

    The move follows three rate increases since July by the ECB, bringing its main lending rate to 2%.

    AIB says that customers who draw down their mortgage by 16 January 16 will be able to avail of previous rates.

    The increase will apply to AIB mortgages as well as those from the group's EBS and Haven brands.

    According to AIB more than half of its mortgage customers are on a fixed rate mortgage.

    The increases are the latest of a slew by the main banks here in recent weeks.

    The most recent announcement came yesterday, when Ulster Bank said it was increasing its fixed rates on certain mortgages.

     

    Further rate increases are expected from the ECB in the coming months, with a rise of as much as 0.75% anticipated next month.

    AIB will also launch a one year fixed term deposit product offering a rate of 0.5% for personal and business customers with deposit balances of greater than €15,000.

    This represents an increase on the previously announced fixed term deposit rate of 0.25%, the bank said.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    Come on. You cant be pointing stuff like that out. It doesnt suit the narrative.' Sure there are plenty of people who no matter what they do will be able to afford a house, but there are equally as many who will moan about not being able to afford a house and not be saving properly at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    It requires an intention to defraud which can be inferred if no good excuse is available.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Well I would consider that a separate issue already covered - no? It's the initial fraud rather than the non-payment which is at issue. Making a gain or loss by deception etc.

    I'd almost just interpret payment as a defence against claims of fraud.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,647 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    That wasn't his point at all. He said he didn't take it. His point was that he, as presumably an 18 year old with no credit history or employment, had fairly large sums of money thrown at him. It was a point as to the availability of credit at that time.



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I don't think this is coming across how you think it's coming across...



This discussion has been closed.
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