Softening house market?

That's between them and the tax authorities in their own countries.

As long as people can come here claiming international asyluM under the pre text of seeking a better life we can never build enough houses. Specially when they are free. Huge arrears in council houses too. None of this ever gets mentioned.

I agree. But just find it funny how the Irish government are screwing over other EU countries with legal loopholes to help them dodge tax. At the same time allowing it to happen to its own citizens in the pretence of these REIT being the answer to Irish housing problem.

People get wet dreams about REITs collapsing. How will that happen. While there may be outliers most REITs are owned by pension funds. They are not leveraged. It's pension fund money.

These property funds are dispersed they have properties in Spain, Germany, the US, South Africa and probably in Timbuktu as well. There is usually a mixture of commercial and residential. If it goes up in one place it goes down in another the yield mostly decides the value.

Properties like these usually move between funds and high net worth individuals. The Fireman's pension fund in New York, Toronto or Timbuktu will not be selling these units in ones or two's ( actually Irish law nearly precludes this at present) they will sell them as one lot probably mixed in with other properties to the teachers pension fund of Marakesh or a private fund.

Do not worry you will not be getting you grubby hands on one

My understanding is that is mostly on the bonds market. The problem was in the UK and is mostly to do with Brexit and Truss's budget.

It was not over borrowing as such it was gauarantees they have to/fir hedges that were guaranteed by longterm UK bonds they held. There was a movement of 0.3% on longterm UK government bonds biggest movement in 50 years and the highest rate in 20 years.

And because of the risk of there collapse the bank of England moved in to save the day......not the Irish government imagine that.

But even if it lead to a sell off these properties would move to another fund or investment vehicle.

SherryFitz would not be selling them one by one

Yes because the were highly leveraged on derivatives that betted on the long term bond yeilds.

Sell to an investment vehicle or government agency that had the ability to bulk buy hundreds at a time.

They wouldn't have to be "leveraged" to receive a collateral call (which I suspect is likely what was at issue). Could just be a legitimate hedge.

I didn't see that property and price drop. How many examples do you have of the same?

I am looking at SCD and some of North Wicklow too. I think I spoke with you on here about my theory that the first thing to drop, if anything does drop, will be places like Rocky Valley and Eagle Valley. I thought these places were overpriced in 2020! But 83 Eagle Valley sold in the last quarter, it went pretty fast, is smaller than your example and the list price was 1.4. Until it appears on the price register I can't tell you it went for full price.

The biggest price drop I have seen is 106 Merrion, opposite the British Embassy, which went from 4.4 to 4 flat.

It'll be interesting to see what price and how fast 9 Sillan goes. I know you have an interest in that too.

What I am doing obviously isn't scientific LOL. I am trying to keep as good a list as possible but it is only one level above Anecdotal. The length of time it takes for sales prices to come through doesn't help. But I am definitely seeing sub 7 figs flying and various properties, into 7 figs, in good locals in SCD going fast too.

Put a lowball offer of 165 in and tell the EA to come back to you if there is any movement.

Philosophically I would disagree. The structure of our tax system is that income and gains derived from Irish property are subject to Irish tax irrespective of the location of the investor/owner. This was also maintained in most Irish double taxation agreements (and is also common in many counties - the U.K. was an outlier but brought gains back inside the U.K. tax net in 2015).

Irish REITs were specifically established with an advantageous tax treatment to attract capital into Ireland post the financial crisis. To a great extent the ultimate investors are pension funds and insurance companies (in general tax exempt investors). There will be a review of the taxation of REITs next year and I expect that there will be a tightening of the rules and/or a possible grandfathering of the advantageous REIT treatment. There are probably arguments both ways but it is generally non-sensical to create an exemption route only for investors who acquire through a specific structure (as opposed to foreign investors generally).

yea its not looking good, when rates rise, asset prices tend to fall!

yup, central bank interventions will more than likely have a negative effects on asset markets, including property markets, baring in mind, this is supply side lead inflation, and central banks effectively have little or no tools to deal with this form of inflation, i.e. expect an increase in defaults, non-performing loans etc, and potentially......

If rates go up further the CBI change to 4x salary will be borderline irrelevant, banks won't be approving those amounts due to other tests.

As a person who bought a house in 2008, trust me nobody knows where the market will go. I still remember bidding and loosing a house in March of 2008 and it ended up going sale agreed 40K over asking price. Just merely months later the market just went tits up and the sale of that house didn't go through. I just ended up buying something else later in the year with no active bids on.

People forget that bidding on houses isn't new, and actually got crazy towards the end of 2007. Looking back we were supposed to have plenty of houses too, but that is only retrospectively looking at it years later.

I am personally on the camp that houses prices won't crash, but neither will it continue to go up in crazy way that some people expect it do. But on the off chance it does go up, the fall will be even painful for a lot of people.

Remember western economy is built on the premise of boom and bust cycle.