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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    The more articles you read saying prices must go up because of supply or because of the new 4.5 multiple, the more extreme the drops are going to be. I read articles proposing that the 4.5 borrowing increase will cause prices to go up while not once mentioning rising rates🤣.

    These "economists" have no clue how the system works.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's only a 4x multiple, not 4.5x, the 4.5x would be the exemption given now. Prices will go up because the 4x multiplier only impacts the lower end of the market. People struggling to buy on low incomes (under 40k each) would be only getting a max loan of 280k (3.5 x 80k), now they're going to be able to get 320k.

    It is also letting second-time buyers purchase with only a 10% deposit, adding people who weren't able to buy again, back in to purchase. Far more people will come in at the lower end of the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900


    By this logic, if central banks raise multiple to 12, prices will quadruple 🤣.

    You are ignoring the most important factor, rising rates and why its now the only option left to central banks.

    People are so blind to reality, but Id expect nothing else. Youd swear the market was built off first time buyers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    I'm sorry but what evidence is there to suggest landlords are not charging the most they can charge?

    We saw landlords upping rent by 10+% before the RPZs. Their mortgage repayments didn't change.

    Landlords are in it to make as much money as possible. Landlords aren't charities...so why are people acting like they're renting accomodationg for the good of the tenant? Landlords rent out for their benefit.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,190 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    You could have written this post every year for the past 6 years.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 255 ✭✭bluelamp


    It's clear as day that government policy is to keep house prices where they are. Not once have they ever said that house prices are too high. Its all about "affordability"... careful choice of words.

    They'd rather throw ever increasing grants at first time buyers rather than see property prices moderate. A (failing) attempt at keeping as many people happy as they can I suppose.

    External factors might pull down Irish property prices, but we can be sure this government will push hard the opposite direction if that happens.

    You couldn't make it up - rising interest rates threatened to calm the market, so they relax lending rules.

    It has to turn at some point though - whats going on isn't sustainable... and unfortunately the longer this goes on the bigger the fallout when it inevitably ends in tears.



  • Registered Users Posts: 100 ✭✭DRedSky


    The government are determined to keep prices up and the latest Irish Central bank lending rule change was brought on by them being strongly lobbied by the government to do it, without a doubt. BUT on the other hand interest rates are going up a lot and they will have a big impact in the opposite direction so it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

    Just out of curiosity, what is the story with everyone saying January will see the 4x rule change taking effect? Is it not the case that you can only apply for a 4x mortgage in Jan which in theory would mean someone doing this would not likely be in a position to buy until April/May?

    Or are people thinking you can apply for 4x now but can't actually draw down ti Jan?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    This is a good question, and it’s one that doesn’t arise as often as it should.

    I’m not aware of statistics, but I would wager that there are thousands upon thousands of adults in their late 20s, 30s or even 40s who are essentially stuck in life despite being in employment. I personally know people in their 40s who are house-sharing or living with their parents. In that situation, one cannot settle down, marry or have children, even if they wanted to.

    What is the toll of this?  Obviously, this is creating a mental health disaster, but there is also the demographic element.  The people whom I mention above are not “young” people. Rather, they are adults who only a few years ago would have been having children and raising the next generation.  Thus it may be assumed that native birth rates are falling, hence the state’s gusto for immigration. 

    I too have wondered what the long-term fate of this lost generation will be, and let us not pretend that this is not what we have. Certainly, many of the younger generation will manage to own their own home, but an enormous proportion will not. If I’m honest, I think that their plight will simply be added the already immense human cost of the globalist/neo-liberal economic model.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 722 ✭✭✭drogon.


    There is a cohort of people that were posting that because Irish banks have loads of deposit they won't be passing most of the ECB rates increase to end users. I personally think it is idiocracy to be believe that in the long term.

    I see some of the bankers bonus limits could be removed by the government soon. In a year from now when we only have 3 large banks and no competition, and the expectation that ECB will not go negative with their interest rates again. Long term I see interest rates being high for mortgage holders due to lack of competition.

    Deposit holders could be the next market will be for these banks, by December ECB rates might hit 2%. So even if banks gave people .75% on their deposit on the high end by end of next year. Banks can make a killing in profit and hence nice bonus for them bankers.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    There is a cohort of people that were posting that because Irish banks have loads of deposit they won't be passing most of the ECB rates increase to end users.

    Literally nobody ever said this. You are straw-manning.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I have approval for 3.5x, and in January I'll get approval for 4x, approval in principle took me about 30 minutes on the phone. I like many will have all the documentation with the bank so that 4x approval will take no time whatsoever, meaning those who get it can start bidding an additional amount onto their offers. If you're in a 2-person household with a combined salary of 88,404 (average salary is €44,202 - there is no latest median), your borrowing amount goes up by 44,202 come January. A lot of people on the average couple's salary would have only been able to borrow 309k, and now with the new 4x, that'll go up to 355k. The bottom of the market will not change, and a lot of couples that wanted to buy their own place won't have an issue with repayments of 1600 per month over a 30-year mortgage when they have been paying 2500 in rent.



  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900




  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900



    "The Governor also said one of the top risks facing the financial system is the growing size of investment funds. Ireland is the third largest location for such funds in the world.

    Property funds in Ireland will now have a 60% limit set for the amount of borrowed money a fund holds."

    Read between the lines.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    Duplicate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭pinksoir


    You will bid up to an extra 44k, but the couple who earns 10k more than you will bid up to an extra 49k. Those same couples who have been outbidding you when mortgages were 3.5x.

    So all that will happen is the baseline house price (for second hand homes) will go up by 44k plus. Which in turn will push up prices all the way up the chain.

    You still won't have a home. Homes in general will just become even more expensive, so those who can afford to outbid you will be laden with more debt.

    The only way this thing changes at all is if more homes are built.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Can you point out a single post in this thread where someone said they won't be passing most of the ECB rate increases on?

    There was discussion that the initial round of rate increases would be absorbed, which is what has happened.

    Also, we're now heading into December. Plenty of posts made last May predicting that the property market would have collapsed by December and that we just had to give it time. Is it pushed back to next December?

    CSO figures highlighting that property prices are still increasing, let alone falling - and I was told on more than one occasion that the CSO figures would start to register a decent fall in property prices by now. Hasn't happened yet.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    How about you read between the lines for us and give your interpretation of what you believe this article means?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,652 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Actually there were some views expressed on the thread a few weeks or months ago that the Irish banks wouldn't raise rates in response to rises in the wholesale market because they didn't need to as they had so much deposits sitting there. It obviously didn't make sense, but it was claimed.


    I remember because I tried arguing with them over it at the time



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,804 ✭✭✭Large bottle small glass


    There's no doubt in my mind that the current difficulty working people are having securing a home will have very significant political and societal consequences.

    Between funds buying up blocks of property, councils also buying blocks of houses (in south Tipp alone without even looking I'm aware of 4 full developments bought by Tipperary council) there is an extreme shortage of affordable housing.

    That along with childcare costs make buying a house today a very different things to generations ago.

    Getting a qualification, working hard is part of a social contract where you get rewarded by having security of housing, health care etc. That's in tatters for huge numbers of people.

    People who have comfortable lives ( and there's a lot of them, me included) are really unaware of the hardship.

    Coupled with the perception of free houses for people who don't or barely work along with increased immigration there is a time bomb waiting.

    Endlessly unsustainable increasing house prices aren't good for society in general but the comfortable don't realise that until it's their kids can't afford to buy a house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,652 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    and a lot of couples that wanted to buy their own place won't have an issue with repayments of 1600 per month over a 30-year mortgage when they have been paying 2500 in rent.

    There is a fundamental difference between having a short term obligation in the form of your current rent and having a long term obligation sitting over your head. It can become even more pronounced at different stages of life



  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Again, this was not said on this thread.

    People said that banks would raise their mortgage rates and their deposit rates slower than what many expected on here. People also said that banks would absorb some of the increases.

    When you compare and contrast how the banks have behaved compared to the non-bank lenders, it does seem like these people were bang on the money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,652 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    It was. What you mean is that you didn't remember it being said, or that you don't read the posts where it being said.


    To be clear, I am not saying it was a widely held view on the thread, only that it was said. I am likely not the only other person who remembers it. It was along the lines of "the Irish banks don't need to raise their rates because they have so much deposits"



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    We can all re-read the posts on this thread. They're there in black and white. It's not what people were saying, it seems like you're purposefully misinterpreting it. No one said the banks would not increase interest rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19 Ficus Jam




  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I know this. What I'm saying is a lot of people won't consider this and will look at it short term.



  • Registered Users Posts: 250 ✭✭gaming_needs90


    I see little let up in prices here in Galway. Only started looking a few months ago so perhaps this is the norm but any house I have bid on has gone a decent bit above asking in bids, always from a low base. Perhaps this is normal, I don't know. Disheartening all the same.

    I can see why though, really there are at most one good house a week put up on Daft. More like one every two weeks if even.



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,832 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    What am I missing here? That post does not say banks won't raise rates.



This discussion has been closed.
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