Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

breezy1985 · 26-11-2022 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119924250#Comment_119924250

"WHo lasted longer in office, Truss or Poots"

The lettuce.

BlitzKrieg · 26-11-2022 5:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119923963#Comment_119923963

I feel like everyone is misunderstanding me.

I'm not wondering how Danish Crown are going to bypass some sort of regulation. I'm wondering why are they even talking about regulation importing INTO the Uk as an issue when the UK has openly admitted they dont check because they cant put any border checks together before 2023.

Unless I've misunderstood and the manchester hub they are building is for them exporting british pork to europe? But he specified in the quote importing into the UK is causing the red tape and I am wondering where that red tape is coming from.

But back in april the report was that the UK was not doing checks on fresh food and "The cliff-edge approach left exporters of fish and other fresh food in chaos with a lack of customs agents and veterinary staff to certify whether the produce complied with EU standards. But in the UK post-Brexit checks on fresh food were not implemented for imports, being pushed back in 2020 and on two occasions in 2021."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/jacob-rees-mogg-delay-post-brexit-eu-fresh-food-checks-fourth-time

also "The controls which have been scrapped include controls over the import of chilled meats from the EU, safety and security declarations, and checks on plant and animal products."

https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/brexit-border-checks-abandoned-jacob-rees-mogg-cost-1bn/

So I'm slightly confused where the red tape is that has forced Danish Crown to move to the UK? I would have thought the more likely explanation was Danish Crown was going to focus on taking over the domestic market and not import or export anything, considering most small to medium sized farmers have been hurting badly and the UK eats a lot of bacon, a much larger company coming in and basically dominating the market makes sense.

reslfj · 26-11-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119923636#Comment_119923636

Danish Crown is a very large company and it trades its products world wide.

The Danish export of pork to the UK was in 2017 around £225 million and most came in reefer containers on ships from typically Esbjerg.

The customs and compliance processing is automated and relatively simple compared to the value of the product imported.

All pigs are vet controlled when slaughtered and the papers processing at Danish Crown is by computer (same products all the time).

Bacon and Ham are often/mostly sliced and packed in the UK. It seems likely Danish Crown is just moving / insourcing such slicing/packing operations. Jobs will later be lost in other places. I guess.

Export in volume where Rule of Origin certification is easy (e.g. 100% Danish/Eu pork) fits well into the TCA rules with zero tariffs. When sliced and packed in the UK the Ham and Bacon should qualify for reexport to the EU (Ireland?).

Lars 😀

PS! Note the Danish pork export to Germany in 2017 was almost 2 times larger at £400 million (source Danmarks Statistik)

peter kern · 27-11-2022 9:44am

eu japan vs uk japan deal. in short looks like truss is lucky she has already quit as pm . uk exporting less in 2021 eu more .

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump

https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2022/08/08/what-has-happened-to-uk-japan-trade-one-year-after-signing-the-cepa-fta/

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Japan-EU_%E2%80%93_international_trade_in_goods_statistics

Peregrinus · 28-11-2022 3:20am

The UK not doing checks on fresh food, etc, doesn't mean that UK law says "you can import fresh food without doing any paperwork or complying with any standards". UK law does require both paperwork and standards; UK authorities are just not enforcing the law.

A business like Danish Crown with a reputation to protect doesn't ignore the law just because it knows it can get away with it, so it is likely that they are in substantial compliance with UK law on the import of fresh foods - that's where all the paperwork is coming from. This is partly a matter of reputation, and partly a matter of knowing that enforcement is coming at some point, so they are using this time to set up and operate compliance procedures and systems. And no doubt their experience of doing so is one of the things that has fed into the decision to shift processing for the UK market from Denmark to the UK.

As far as I can see, the pig-meat will still be sourced in Denmark, but it will be brought to the UK for processing. But obviously once of the factors that might go into a decision to establish a processing plant in the UK is that it opens up the possibility of sourcing pig-meat in the UK at a later date, if that starts to look like a good idea.

Is there any downside to this for the UK? Well, Danish Crown are spending a hundred million on the plant; that money will be recovered in the prices charged to UK consumers. If it were cheaper to process the bacon in the UK Danish Crown would be already doing that. So, somewhat more expensive rashers. I've no idea how much more expensive.

As the article points out, the UK is a very large consumer of pig-meat products. The bulk of this — about 60% — is imported. Other importers are either already facing the same issues as Danish Crown, or they will do once enforcement starts. That's likely to drive the price of pigmeat products up, and Danish Crown may be calculating that this will help them to recoup the cost of investment in this plant.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2022 12:02pm

Rather interesting piece from the FT today. Note the title which is rather striking for a paper which tries to remain analytical and impartial.

https://www.ft.com/content/5a8d439b-da0f-41c0-9e6b-e857a75c2a30

The article (The UK government should stop doing stupid stuff) blames Brexit for the UK's struggling economy and highlights the absurdity of the fact that rejoining isn't being discussed in any serious way. The UK is tanking as a destination for investment while the government continues to rattle its sabre over the NI protocol.

Other "stupid stuff" includes Truss' disastrous mini-budget, regulatory divergence and the perverse obsession with border control.

Igotadose · 28-11-2022 1:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119930447#Comment_119930447

non-paywall: https://archive.ph/ormDN

"Don't do stupid stuff" quoted.

Strazdas · 28-11-2022 2:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119930447#Comment_119930447

They're in a terrible position in the moment in that the 'elephant in the room' that is causing a huge amount of damage to the economy cannot even be admitted or acknowledged. This is what happens when you have a pro-Brexit government and media. It has become a standalone political ideology, almost a religion in fact, that can never be denounced.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2022 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119931005#Comment_119931005

The problem they have now is that the body of the faithful is withering away. People only care about ideology until it negatively impacts them. We're seeing that now with better growth in the EU27 combined with the cost of living crisis that the Conservatives cynically tried and failed to exploit here.

The tide is turning but it'll be a long time before the Tories realise how toxic they are and jettison Brexit as a core belief. The problem with having control of the media and the legislature is that people become disaffected and reject the former while becoming cynical about the latter. They've effectively groomed a whole generation of people for whom words like "Socialist" and "Woke" are meaningless right wing slurs used to shut down debate. Frost & Co sound positively demented as they continually add to the political perversion that is the palimpsest of Brexiter lies and myths.

Worse than all of this though is the base contempt they've shown for the social contract here. The UK was always a highly individualistic country, not as much as the US but enough that a narrative of getting ahead was highly effective. They've completely alienated themselves from anyone who isn't wealthy, a pensioner or an edgy culture warrior. I'm at the age where I should be voting Tory, not combing LinkedIn for biotech jobs in the Netherlands. They've destroyed the housing market and then pretend like they haven't:

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1596812168602624001?t=4ar7ZT_rAf4Wb2s6_PyryQ&s=19

Strazdas · 28-11-2022 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119931244#Comment_119931244

The lack of leadership is appalling. The idea of a real 'leader' is to try and create major policies for the common good and bring people along with you by saying "We believe this is the right thing to do, even it is difficult" (think of some of JFK's speeches from the early 1960s). This is how a society continues to grow and evolve. The Tory Brexit ideology appears to be to pander to the worst and most ignorant members of society - the racists, the bigots, the reactionaries etc and tell them they are right to be prejudiced....a total lack of any moral leadership.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2022 3:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119931364#Comment_119931364

The thing is that the last great Conservative idea was Brexit which was "designed" to be defined after it was done. Now that they've got what they wanted, ie power, they've no idea what to do beyond enriching themselves, pushing an authoritarian agenda and shutting down dissent as I described above.

Conservatism is essentially braindead. The organs that win elections are still working - The Tories do this better than Labour most of the time, sadly. They'll no doubt have Lynton Crosby polling away in the background to try and claw their way in again in 2023/4. They know how to win, they just don't know what for.

On top of this, one talks about separating the wheat from the chaff but they've done the opposite. Anyone who didn't bail or get pushed out in 2019 must be having serious thoughts about their future now I would think.

I forgot Theresa Villiers was still there. I thought she'd been dumped or left ages ago. Funny how she talks about getting people on the housing ladder one minute and then boasts about shutting down developments the next:

The 40 per cent affordable home scheme, including four tower blocks up to 14 storeys, was approved by Enfield’s planning committee last month with the casting vote of committee chair Sinan Boztas, in the face of concerted opposition from residents, Conservatives including Chipping Barnet MP Theresa Villiers, and local Labour MP Bambos Charalambous.

Shapps confirmed in a letter to Villiers that he had used veto powers under the GLA Act 1999, the legislation which created devolved government in the capital, “as I am concerned that the parking provision at the station would be inadequate following the development proposed by TfL”. TfL says it is “not aware of any previous instances where the Secretary of State has used this power.”

Villiers, who had argued that the extensive car park around the Grade II-listed station at the end of the Piccadilly Line performed an “important park-and-ride function, helping people get on to the public transport network”, welcomed the decision while pledging to “keep fighting” to save suburban station car parks.

https://www.onlondon.co.uk/enfield-grant-shapps-deploys-previously-unused-power-to-block-affordable-homes-on-car-park/

Strazdas · 28-11-2022 7:26pm

We keep hearing from Brexiteers and the right wing press that the war in Ukraine, energy costs, Covid etc are the real cause of all the UK's problems and not Brexit, but this survey of British firms begs to differ.

Igotadose · 29-11-2022 3:32pm

More grim news about the trade impact of Brexit. 40+% of UK products disappearing from European shelves.

"Our estimate suggests that as many as 42 per cent of the product varieties previously exported to EU have disappeared during the 15 months following January 2021."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-exports-trade-eu-politics-b2234671.html

Sam Russell · 01-12-2022 11:35am

Bad news for Kermit

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/12/01/eu-strengthens-brexit-deal-enforcement-powers/

It appears the EU are readying swingeing reaction to UK backsliding in the agreement over Brexit - particularly the NI Protocol.

They mention restricting UK air carriers plus plenty more targeted actions.

ancapailldorcha · 01-12-2022 11:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943494#Comment_119943494

From the link above:

“I take no pleasure in saying this, but the EU would have no option but to respond proportionately to protect the single market,” said Seán Kelly, the Fine Gael MEP who was a lead negotiator in the talks on behalf of the parliament’s international trade committee.

“Of course, we would prefer if the enforcement mechanisms were not needed,” he continued.

“Politically, this regulation is a strong statement of EU unity and readiness to take action if the UK were to breach either agreements, including the protocol… especially if the British government was to refuse to participate in the dispute-resolution mechanisms provided for.”

“From an Irish perspective, this regulation is also essential to protect the all-Ireland economy,” Mr Kelly said.

Pretty sensible. I'm glad this is happening but it seems to be unnecessary. HM government have mainly been impeded by their own spectacular incompetence more than anything the EU has needed to do. They've had three years now and accomplished diddly-squat, even from the perspective of a Brexiter nationalist.

schmoo2k · 01-12-2022 4:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943549#Comment_119943549

I suspect he got tired of Kermits posts?

ancapailldorcha · 01-12-2022 5:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945085#Comment_119945085

Could be.

In all seriousness, the EU wouldn't have signed the deal without failsafes to protect the single market. I'm not a lawyer but this comes across to me as escalation without escalation, more of a codification and formalization of what's already there. The EU can't unilaterally alter the deal any more than the UK can.

breezy1985 · 01-12-2022 5:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945085#Comment_119945085

Brilliant.

FraserburghFreddie · 01-12-2022 7:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119935526#Comment_119935526

Not very happy over brexit but British export trade with non EU countries has greatly increased.Also,there is now much more non EU produce(fruit is one for example) from non EU countries available.

Hotblack Desiato · 01-12-2022 7:53pm

Right so roughly what % of the loss of exports with EU countries has been offset by increased trade with non-EU countries...?

Costa Rican bananas don't generate jobs in the UK

Sam Russell · 01-12-2022 7:57pm

If EU/UK drops by 20%, the effect is 10% of GDP. It takes a lot of Costa Rican bananas to make up that difference.

Igotadose · 01-12-2022 8:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945767#Comment_119945767

Link? Not to Australia or New Zealand per the articles posted here a week ago. No deal with the USA either. And at least this report (from March) says different. https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence-on-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade/

ancapailldorcha · 01-12-2022 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945767#Comment_119945767

We had fruit before Brexit.

Peregrinus · 02-12-2022 2:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945767#Comment_119945767

Sigh.

UK exports to non-EU countries (2021 figures) have increased since 2020. But they were abnormally low in 2020 for Reasons That We All Know. This is a bit of a bouncing back, but it has little to do with Brexit. UK exports to EU countries also rose over the same period, and in fact rose at a faster rate.

Because of the Reasons That We Know, comparisons between 2020 and 2021 are, in general, not going to tell us anything very meaningful about the impacts of Brexit (which is presumably why Brexit boosters love to quote them; figures which reveal anything meaningful about the impact of Brexit are unlikely to gratify Brexit boosters).

More meaningful comparisons might look at the five years since the Brexit decision, 2016-21, and compare that with the preceding five year period, 2011-16. Here, too, exports to non-EU countries have grown in the five year period since 2016 — they are up by 13% (in GBP terms). But over the previous five-year period they were up by 20% in GBP terms, so Brexit appears, if anything, to be associated with a poorer performance in exporting to non-EU countries.

Obviously, there could be other factors at work here to explain the slowing of growth. But there is nothing in these figures to suggest that Brexit has done anything at all to boost the UK's exports to non-EU countries. And, knowing what we know about how Brexit has unfolded, this is not surprising - in what way have "Brexit freedoms" been utilised to make choices that would boost the UK's exports to non-EU countries? It's very hard to point to anything the UK has actually done that would lead us to expect any kind of boost to non-EU exports. Brexiters themselves have largely pivoted from claiming that Brexit has been beneficial to complaining that it hasn't been beneficial because it has been betrayed by the Tory party who ditched Truss.

FraserburghFreddie · 02-12-2022 9:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945859#Comment_119945859

I didn't imply there is any deal with the USA.I remain very unhappy with Britain leaving the EU but life goes on for now and trading outside the EU is increasing.There has been some talk of a general strike which would hopefully result in a general election.

https://www.export.org.uk/news/607257/UK-food-and-drink-exports-to-non-EU-countries-have-risen-post-pandemic-report-says.htm#:~:text=The%20FDF's%20Trade%20Snapshot%20reports,pandemic%20levels%2C%20reports%20The%20Grocer.

FraserburghFreddie · 02-12-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947177#Comment_119947177

Brexit is done and dusted.Obviously trading between the EU and UK will lessen and the UK will look elsewhere.I'm very unhappy about the whole situation but needs must until the tories are consigned to history.This link details some of the UK non EU trade .

https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2022/06/01/how-is-uk-food-and-drink-trade-with-non-eu-countries