December 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium ____ 6.0 _ 15.8 _ -4.9 _ 133 _ 105 __ 11.2 _ 5.8 __ no

NormaL ________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.2 _ 2.2 __ no

Table of forecasts for December 2022

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ 25th Dub (A) _ snow? 24/25

M.T. Cranium _________ 6.0 _ 15.8 _ -4.9 _ 133 _ 105 __ 11.2 __ 5.8 __ No

Tae laidir ____________ 5.8 _ 15.8 _ -4.1 _ 088 _ 098 __ 11.3 __ 5.0 __ No

john mac ____________ 5.8 _ 13.9 _ -5.1 _ 108 _ 098 ___ 5.8 __ 1.4 __ Yes, Knock

MrSkinner ___________ 5.7 _ 14.4 _ -3.4 _ 094 _ 104 ___ 9.0 __ 2.0 __ No

waterways ___________5.6 _ 15.3 _ -4.0 _ 091 _ 097 ___ 9.0 __ 4.0 __ No

__ NormaL __________ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.2 __ 2.2 __ No

Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 13.0 _ -6.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 9.0 __ 3.1 __ No

Dacogawa ___________ 5.3 _ 15.2 _ -8.7 _ 121 _ 100 ___ 4.5 _ -2.8 __ Yes, Dublin

DOCARCH ___________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ -6.2 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 8.1 _ -0.8 __ Yes, Knock.

Mr stonewall _________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -7.4 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 7.8 __ 2.2 __ No

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -6.5 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 8.0 __ 1.0 __ No

Sunflower3 __________ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ -6.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 8.3 __ 2.0 __ No

Appledrop ___________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -6.4 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 8.6 __ 2.0 __ No .

Dasa29 _____________ 5.0 _ 11.5 _ -6.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 6.0 _ -2.0 __ No

___ Con Sensus ______ 5.0 _ 14.2 _ -6.5 _ 088 _ 105 ___ 7.8 __ 1.4 __ No (15/26)

Gonzo ______________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.8 _ 108 _ 112 __ 11.8 __ 4.3 __ No

Artane2002 __________4.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 7.2 __ 3.2 __ No

Bsal ________________4.8 _ 13.1 _ -4.5 _ 108 _ 104 ___ 7.0 __ 1.1 __ No

esposito ____________ 4.6 _ 11.8 _ -8.6 _ 095 _ 104 ___ 7.9 _ -1.1 __ No

SleetAndSnow ________4.3 _ 14.6 _ -6.2 _ 078 _ 140 ___ 6.0 _ -2.1 __ Yes, Knock

Jpmarn _____________ 4.2 _ 13.5 _ -7.5 _ 085 _ 095 ___ 4.2 _ -3.2 __ Yes, Dublin

200motels __________3.8 _ 13.6 _ -7.1 _ 083 _ 131 ___ 3.8 _ -2.4 __ Yes, Mullingar

sryanbruen __________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -9.1 _ 080 _ 130 ___ 3.6 _ -2.3 __ Yes, Mullingar

adam240610 _________3.5 _ 14.8 _ -8.8 _ 103 _ 111 ___10.1 __1.4 __ No

Joe Public ___________ 3.3 _ 13.3 _ -9.3 _ 083 _ 123 ___ 4.3 _ -3.3 __ Yes, Knock

Bazlers _____________ 2.9 _ 13.1 _-11.8 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 7.2 _ -8.0 __ Yes, Casement

Danno ______________ 2.7 _ 12.9 _-12.3_ 065 _ 160 ___ 1.8 _ -8.8 __ Yes, Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-5) ___ 0.7 _ 12.7 _ -14.7 _ 120 _ 120 __ 1.7__ -5.8 __ Yes, Casement

WolfEire ___ (-5) ______ 4.7 _ 14.3 _ -8.7 _ 95 _ 100 __ 10.7__ 5.8 __ no

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For the snowfall question, 11/25 selected "yes" and of those, Knock had four votes, Mullingar, Dublin and Casement had two each, and Ballyhaise one. NormaL and Con Sensus can only score 3 if there is no snow 24th-25th.

Lots of spread in the forecasts with perhaps two camps, a cold/dry/sunny group and a mildish/wet/cloudy group.

I am aware of some errors in the table of forecast entry for BLIZZARD7 above, thought I had changed them but now it's too late to edit the table. If a moderator happens to have that superpower go ahead and use it, but I will score from the entry not the wrong data.

I'll score it at end of month, can't edit the table now.

Thanks DOCARCH, I just noted a minor error in the Nov category scoring update too, if you have a chance there's one number that needs to be changed. The late penalties for the last two entrants here don't really have much bearing on anything other than if they stayed on all winter it would affect the four seasons results.

-3 was noted at Gurteen around 0400h Wed, will check more exact values there and Markree but these likely to be overtaken later anyway.

The deadline was actually 0300h 1st, I had posted the table with a late penalty for BLIZZARD7 who entered later on the first, so if you were a regular in what is the last month of our annual contest, you might have been looking at more than 5 points, but as it's your first entry it really makes very little difference to the contest and I just let the -5 stand. Another policy that might come into play for you and me is that the contest has a never-before-needed minimum score of 10. I am relying on the mother of all warming trends to save my sorry ass. You and several others might only need the aunt.

Even now if we had a second chance to do MIN or IMT there would no doubt be quite a range, I could see where this cold spell never goes below -5 at a reporting site but if any snow falls and then there's a clear spell you could easily see -8 to -12. Thinking the coldest might be around Sunday. And as to IMT, the GFS shows a pronounced warming trend after mid-month, the ECM is much less progressive. You could make a case for almost all of our IMT predictions even now.