FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GEFS ensembles for 18z run show the very cold uppers in the latter half of the output were a tad, but not much, colder than the average 850hPa for the perturbations. See below

Overall, and in comparison to Friday's Oz run, there was a greater number of milder solutions. See below. Will be interesting to see what the next 0z brings and if that trends continues or reverses.

Images from Meteociel.fr

There's no need for a dedicated thread yet, we can discuss everything FI related here. I'm sure Kermit is chomping at the bit to start one, but real snow potential cold is still in FI without cross model agreement.

Do you mean the 0z ECM?

No sense pulling the trigger yet, there is as much chance of mild muck prevailing as some wintry weather beyond 10 days.

ECM looking different to my untrained eye ?

ECM is sober this morning. Game on!

Im still not convinced of those uppers with the SSTs we have presently Around our shores.

At least we have better synoptics compared to yesterday evenings ECM to at least give us a shot...might still upgrade.

It's going to be big...disappointment, imo. There's currently a lot of warmish air up there that needs to flush out before then. How much modification of the cold outbreak will take place? The hype needs to be tamed a bit.

ECM back on track, thank God!

Haven't seen this forum this excited for quite awhile. I love the model watching sagas, like a really really slow horse race. Full of ups and downs and bookies giving you all sorts of attractive odds. I'll stick a tenner on Big Polar Bear in the 3.30 anyway lads. Hup!

GFS 6z not looking as good for prolonged cold. 3 or 4 days of cold and mild air seeping back in by Sunday week. There is no guarantee of anything remarkable yet in next couple of weeks. Unfortunately the trend is away from something special this time in my opinion.

Thursday or Friday morning at the moment looks like a pretty good chance of snow in Dublin/Wicklow, whether this is just in the hills or in the city proper is tbc

The 00Z ECM ENS (left) shows a better chance of the cold hanging around through next weekend, but less chance of precipitation.

Hard to disagree at the moment. Things have backed off a memorable spell. Of course any snow falling in Ireland is unusual so even a 2/3 day event would be notable.

However I've a sneaky feeling the upgrades are coming, as ever more runs needed

The latest show us exactly why +120 hours is fantasy island and why also taking a single op run from a model and basing forecast on that is poor.

Also as said above 2010 and 2018 were very rare events and if you are expecting that kind of event from FI charts then you are always going to be dissapointed.

Will be interesting to what the 12z ensembles show for the next 5 days.

It’s only the 3rd of December. GFS and ECM still having lying snow for some especially northern countries for multiple days. I’d take that no problem, talk of 2010/18 every time snow is a possibility will almost always lead to disappointment.

The forecast isn’t nailed on yet, there could be upgrades or downgrades for snow chances from Wednesday onwards. Either way it’s only weather

COLD WEATHER COMING OUR WAY.

Becoming progressively colder this weekend and next week 

A big change in the weather is forecast over the coming days as the relatively mild weather of recent weeks is replaced by much colder conditions.

Meteorologist Matthew Martin says, “After such a mild November, the upcoming cold spell will be a shock to the system for many. There will be a good chance this weekend to make preparations for the winter weather. Lots of useful information and advice is available on the winter ready website https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/aa78b9-be-winter-ready/ .”

The transition to colder weather is currently underway as high pressure stretching from Russia to Scandinavia begins to retrogress towards Greenland allowing a cold easterly air-flow to become established over Ireland this weekend.

(Cold air-mass forecast to move over Ireland over the coming days)

Maximum daytime temperatures will drop back to single figures over the weekend and with the increased chance of some frost. There will be some showers too, especially over eastern counties on Sunday, where some of the showers will be heavy and bring the potential for hail and thunder and snow is possible over high ground.

Next week, it looks set to turn even colder. After relatively benign winter weather on Monday and Tuesday with lots of sunshine and just some showers, a much colder northeasterly air-flow is currently forecast to become established over Ireland by Wednesday.

(Forecast maximum temperatures across Europe for Thursday 8th December 2022)

Whilst there remains some uncertainty in forecast detail, there is growing confidence that it will turn very cold from Wednesday and through the latter days of next week. Wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow are expected at times along with the possibility for severe frost and ice. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the low single figures with sub-zero temperatures by night.

It’s game on as far as I’m concerned

Sensational charts this afternoon!!

Much better depth of cold also. Time for a thread!!

Hi kermit,

Always enjoy reading your posts and knowledge.

But do you not think there is a shut off of direct flow of substancial cold air in north Norway / Finland that will essentially waterdown what will potentially come our way?

Is it not very strange for a tropical storm to be developing in December? I suppose the waters are fairly warm still which could be causing it, but not too sure. Could also be an Iberia Low situation similar to a few days ago which was going to ruin our chances, but now is no longer an issue. Charts just testing the waters of what could happen maybe, developing lows where there usually are?

I'm not sure, but I don't think hurricanes/tropical storms are unheard of in December.