Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

"Green" policies are destroying this country

Options
16036046066086091067

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    You do realise that the idea isnt that our wind farms generate 100% of our demand 100% of the time?

    You say 12x, what capacity increase would Shannon provide assuming the proposed 30GW comes on line in 2050?

    Our wind capacity as at its highest when much of the rest of the world has huge demand for A/C, during summer.

    This is a demand that we don't have. (though keep up with your fossil fuel burning and who knows...) Might be an idea to sell some of that via interconnectors so we can then buy it back when we do need it? Energy storage can be more than a physical battery, you can store the cash in summer to use in winter...if you are willing to think a little.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    There is much talk here of how 100GW wind farm doesnt give you 100GW all of the time yet little to no acceptance that 100GW of Nuclear also doesnt give you 100GW all of the time. Its like there are some glow in the dark tinted glasses or something.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Its what the figure show right now

    Thats like comparing a race between a ModelT and a Ferrari and saying that the ModelT is faster as its 1,000s of miles ahead of the Ferrari, yet neglecting to point out that the ModelT started racing a little earlier than the Ferrari did!

    "stats" huh!



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    So now we are to populate the country with wind & solar farms, not for our own direct needs but so we can sell into other markets? This Green Tech stuff is just pure capitalism.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Neither you or anybody else can predict the future, and with us not hitting a single target here to date I would not be holding my breath on 2030 for wind when with extra capacity from 2 years ago we are still not going to be close to that figure this year, and it looks as if we will not even reach last years. Especially when the cost of this offshore plan is revealed. Hydro is as high as it is going to go here, or practically anywhere for that matter.

    As it stands, contrary to your assertion wind and solar are niche compared to nuclear, and it might be an idea for you to take a look at the financial problems turbine makers are having. General Electric alone is looking at $2 billion losses this year from their renewables unit, Vesta is selling turbines at 8% below cost and Siemens is losing money on turbines as well. Makes you wonder does it not if these companies have completely over-estimated the demand.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    All of us need to wake us and realise that switching to an electrical system entirely based on unreliable random generation, will rapidly put us in a life and death situation like Ukrainian people find themselves today (albeit for different reasons). When the wind stops blowing and the solar panels are covered in snow, when all our cars are electric and boilers replaced by heat pumps, where will energy come from? Demand for electricity will surge, but there won’t be enough supply. The grid will implode.

    Right now Germany is facing de-industrialisation due to energy shortages, In the Netherlands, farmers are facing a land grab by their government, In Switzerland their lockdown plans call for electric cars to be banned from the road unless it is an emergency, cuts in shop opening hours and entertainment venues, even internet streaming services will be curtailed. France has already planned load shedding in worst case.

    Wait until Irish voters are told they can’t fly to Costa Del Sol or Alicante, that meat will be taxed, or that power cuts will be the new normal to comply with netzero. If Irish and other European governments think they will get away with climate lockdowns, they are reading the room incorrectly.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Actually that is what the idea is. Or what do you think the 30gigawatt offshore plan is to export energy ?

    The 30 gigawatt offshore will supply just 6.3% gigawatts for domestic consumption. We are not going to be exporting anything from that.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Its not my assertion, its the International Energy Agency report thats saying it



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It is what it is, and there is almost a 50% difference with wind and nuclear and over 250% with solar. If the rest of the world is looking at the massive difference in cost it would take here with this offshore plan compared to nuclear who knows what the future holds.


    "Financial viability" huh!



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The International Energy Agency would not be paying the bills. Like everything else a nations economy and financial viability will be the deciding factors.

    Last year I doubt if the International Energy Agency would have said that Germany would be burning anything they can get there hands on now.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Now try it with the other renewables, because it isn't just wind. And there's a lot more renewables to be rolled out.




    Now try it over a longer period. Oh look more solar in summer, more wind in winter. Amazing who'd have suspected it ? And the gaps are short.



    This is renewables without wind. Solar is of course rubbish in winter. But the rest of the year it would wipe out the other generators if you had more of it and could get cheap enough overnight storage. Might be a job for iron flow batteries ?



    This by the way is what total failure looks like. YEARS of ZERO power.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Like everything else a nations economy and financial viability will be the deciding factors.

    Yup, which is why we see so much investment into renewables and away from fossil fuels. You may not like it, you may disagree with it, you may hate it and think its wrong, but it doesn't change the fact that its happening



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Thats not at all what I said, but in any case, what exactly would be wrong with exporting energy? #milk #potatoes



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    We, even more so that many others, have been building wind turbines onshore and we now see that 35% is around as good as it is going to get. That is not going to get us off fossil fuels ever.


    Now with that reaisation, and something that many pointed out long before now, the great white hope of greens is offshore wind and storage and the cost of that will be enormous. So large that it runs every chance of completely bankrupting the country along with a large increase in electricity charges.


    People really didn`t pass much remarks on renewables up to now, other than asking where was this cheap energy we were promised. Once it becomes obvious what the rest of this ideology is going to cost then will people be happy to to pay the price ? I very much doubt that, and when you see the latest reports from the turbine manufacturers, it looks like others doubt it too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    You are dead right, depending on unreliable, random, expensive generation would be a terrible idea. Thats why we should never go nuclear. Again, when the wind stops blowing here and the solar panels are covered in snow here then, as already explained, there are places where this will not be true (hint, the other hemisphere) and also several other options other than fossil or nuclear.


    Yeah, German energy shortages...where are they coming from? Is it from lack of wind or is it a sneak peak into what the future holds if we stay dependent on fossil fuels?

    Whats your alternative? Wait until Irish voters are told they cant fly to the Costa Del Sol or Alicante because it would give them cancer and anyway, both are underwater and the ambient temp is a balmy 42*?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I'm sure you can Google it yourself but yes, the idea is to become a net exporter of energy as the total generated would be far more than we would need ourselves.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Jeeze.

    Ok, lets say it is what it is (which is illogical but how and ever!) please do the maths and work out the total energy output per $ invested for fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables. Now, of course using your own rules, you need to start back before the industrial revolution and use inflation.

    We will then see just exactly what it is.


    Oh and FYI, 50% and even 250% are nothing when you have non linear growth. A nice example of this is non linear consumption of a finite resource.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    77GW average is the figure for 100GW of nuclear #, if you don't count the ones that aren't able to produce power## that is.

    Obviously you can get higher figures if you cherry pick the best plants during their best years.

    You could easily average 77GW with 200GW of offshore wind. The best locations could do that with 150GW of offshore wind.


    # Numbers 2,653,344 GWh / ( 393,351MW * 365 *24h) = 77.00

    ## If you ignore the 92 plants abandoned during construction, and the ones closed down years early like in the US, UK and Germany and Italy etc. and the 26 ones where construction has been delayed for years, then the 438 remaining nuclear power plants worldwide had a average capacity factor of 77% in 2021. This year is likely to be worse due to multiple systemic outages in France and politics in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,163 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Pft thats just facts though.

    Your argument only makes sense if the sun and the wind and the sea are going to be with us forever, yunno, like nuclear waste.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Okay, taking that at face value, how much over capacity in the grid infrastructure should we factor in?

    6.8GW for ourselves and say another 6GW that we may at certain times of the year produce. We would need to over engineer our grid network massively to get this power down the lines. Who pays for that? How long will that take? What's the net benefit, if any? And remember, at that scale these are nontrivial sums of money we are talking about

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    There are significant environmental costs you do realise associated with wind farm construction. Have you ever visited say the Galway Wind Park - biggest construction project in it's day in the state from what I saw. There's no free lunch.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We already have overcapacity in dispatchable plant.

    Very, very roughly for Ireland , 2GW is min demand on summer night , + 1GW for daytime + 1GW for winter +1 GW for record demand + 1GW overcapacity = 6GW installed capacity

    The difference is that in future it won't be needed for baseload, just peaking when renewables aren't producing and storage or imports aren't cheaper. Siemens even reckon they could retrofit some gas turbines to use hydrogen. (stop/start increases wear, spinning at low power is an alternative depending on the fuel vs maintenance costs vs payments for reserve)

    If you inject up to 20% hydrogen into the gas mains you don't need electrical infrastructure to carry the energy away. The interconnectors are usually to existing sites and near the large cities. If you had nuclear you'd need to run cables to remote areas anyway.


    For the whole island.

    See page 32 of www.eirgridgroup.com/site-files/library/EirGrid/EirGrid_SONI_Ireland_Capacity_Outlook_2022-2031.pdf "Notably approximately 30% of the thermal fleet is over 30 years of age." against that there's tendering for 2GW of flexible generation. There's also hydro and biomass.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Just another typical post from greens. Not a single clue what our proposal will cost or even if it will work, but yours is going to be more expensive.

    I already have posted the minimum that just the offshore section of this 30 Gigawatts plan will cost. I have shown what either of the three bids for Poland`s first nuclear plants for the same domestic output from nuclear would cost compared too the 30 Gigawatt plan. I have also pointed out that the with the offshore plan the strike price for domestic consumers would be double + having all the construction costs, production costs, storage costs and distribution costs for hydrogen added on top. I have no intention of wasting my time re-posting all that for just your convenience. It`s all there, if you have a specific problem with the costing then get back to me with your own.

    Oh and FYI those are the figures globally for nuclear, wind and solar where those go in the future who knows. What I do know is there is basically no resource that can be channeled without some element required being finite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Why would you Google it?

    Go and read or listen too the ESB offshore plan and tell me where in that there is anything that shows we would be exporting anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 125 ✭✭Kincora2017


    There is no point comparing any Irish nuclear solution to Polands or any other for thr simple reason that there is no political will to go down the nuclear route currently. At the moment only the Workers Party (current TDs zero I believe?) are pro-nuclear. Even if there is some wild swing politically pro nuclear in the next few years (which isn’t out of the realms of possibilities) we have to first change our legislation to allow it, and then to regulate it. Then into design. There is litterally zero chance of any of that happening within 10 years. On top of that it would be a minimum 5 years between planning, ABP and the high court. Given that you’re now at 15 year plus, the figures you’re quoting for something you say is comparable are absolutely irrelevant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    I understand that, I'm asking the other poster if they do.

    Couple of points though.

    How do we get the 30GW of offshore distributed to the areas that need it? Be that population centres or hydrogen production facilities.

    We are going to need more 400kV corridors, like the Grid West that had to be binned because of planning objections and crazy demands to underground the cables.

    I seen some of the options to run on a mix of gas and H2, it's definitely doable but it also derates the output power along with some of the other items you mentioned.

    Not getting into nuclear because for me it's not a viable option right now for us. Maybe SMRs will be ready in 10 years but I wouldn't bat my life on it.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    15 years is wildly optimistic to be honest when you consider its typically 15-20 for other projects e.g roads

    Realistically you would be looking at 20-25 years but you rightly point out that, legally speaking, there is no chance of it happening anyway



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,586 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Double ? Only if the ESB are going to give 6GW away for free. Which is never going to happen.

    Production costs for renewables are falling in real terms year after year, decade after decade. Restlessly.

    Hydrogen production costs £1.50/watt for 100W pilot project. It will be cheaper later. Storage costs for hydrogen are trivial. The Netherlanders already has enough capacity to store enough hydrogen to last us most of a year. Other EU countries have more. Gas infrastucture is already in place. Some of it was already used to distribute coal gas which about half hydrogen.


    Nuclear costs without the financing are meaningless. The timescales mean that if you don't pay up front then most of the actual cost is dwarfed by interest payments. The interest rate is scary compared to what governments should be able to borrow at because of the risks.


    Here's some epic can kicking , hedging against up to 14 more YEARS of delays.

    https://www.cityam.com/edf-secures-further-funding-for-hinkley-point-c-in-new-settlement/

    EDF has secured 14 years of funding for the UK’s upcoming nuclear plant Hinkley Point C in case of the risk of further delays.

    The French energy giant has agreed a new contract ensuring its funding even if it does not start operating until 2036.

    EDF confirmed to City A.M. the project is still on course for completion in 2027, following an approximately two year delay driven by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions.

    It is also roughly 45 per cent over budget – having initially been projected to cost £18bn, but now expected to be priced at £26bn.

    The new subsidy contract still includes clauses in the former deal, which was set to expire just three years earlier in 2033.

    This includes stipulations such as shortened payments to EDF if Hinkley Point C fails to start generating power by May 2029.




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 125 ✭✭Kincora2017


    Yeah, 25 sounds about the minimum, and even then that would have to be with public and political backing I.e one of SF/Ff/Fg to run on a pro-nuclear platform in 2025 and then deliver when in office.

    it’s never happening in a million years.



Advertisement