December 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 03-12-2022 2:36am

I'll score it at end of month, can't edit the table now.

DOCARCH · 03-12-2022 6:45am

I have edited and added WolfEire. Presume WolfEire is -5?

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2022 5:23am

Thanks DOCARCH, I just noted a minor error in the Nov category scoring update too, if you have a chance there's one number that needs to be changed. The late penalties for the last two entrants here don't really have much bearing on anything other than if they stayed on all winter it would affect the four seasons results.

M.T. Cranium · 04-12-2022 5:29am

Before I forget I noted a high of 11.9 on 1st at Finner Camp, wonder when that will be outdone? (it wasn't beaten on 2nd).

I was just looking at the guidance and would say IMT is going to be around 2.0-2.5 by 10th, could drop a little more, then who knows, could go either way. There was a tropical storm sort of a system west of the Azores forming up and heading up towards Ireland around 12th, in a weakened condition, and more Atlantic waves after that on one recent guidance run. I need all the warmth the Atlantic can create in second half to stand much of a chance of avoiding a historic low, I would say defeat but I think that ship sailed around June.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2022 1:52am

-3 was noted at Gurteen around 0400h Wed, will check more exact values there and Markree but these likely to be overtaken later anyway.

WolfeEire · 08-12-2022 2:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951700#Comment_119951700

I think I was just a few mins late with entry, Docarch . I'll take my punishment if minus 5 means five points deducted. My goal is to secure an overall minus score now. An achievement in itself surely 🙂

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2022 3:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119969624#Comment_119969624

The deadline was actually 0300h 1st, I had posted the table with a late penalty for BLIZZARD7 who entered later on the first, so if you were a regular in what is the last month of our annual contest, you might have been looking at more than 5 points, but as it's your first entry it really makes very little difference to the contest and I just let the -5 stand. Another policy that might come into play for you and me is that the contest has a never-before-needed minimum score of 10. I am relying on the mother of all warming trends to save my sorry ass. You and several others might only need the aunt.

DOCARCH · 08-12-2022 8:50am

-3.2c at Gurteen yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2022 9:01am

Even now if we had a second chance to do MIN or IMT there would no doubt be quite a range, I could see where this cold spell never goes below -5 at a reporting site but if any snow falls and then there's a clear spell you could easily see -8 to -12. Thinking the coldest might be around Sunday. And as to IMT, the GFS shows a pronounced warming trend after mid-month, the ECM is much less progressive. You could make a case for almost all of our IMT predictions even now.

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2022 2:07pm

After first week ...

IMT 5.3 was 0.8 below normal.

MAX 11.9 and MIN -3.2

PRC 35% of normal, would have been lower except for Casement 163% (west almost dry).

SUN 127.3% of normal (764/600)

DOCARCH · 09-12-2022 9:24am

Mount Dillon reporting -7c this morning.

M.T. Cranium · 09-12-2022 9:49am

The IMT was 0.6 C for the 8th which will leave the running mean close to 4.7 C for 1st to 8th. Guidance is saying close to zero on average for 9th to 16th now, slight rises 17th-18th and much milder 19th to 25th. We could get down as low as 2.0 by 17th or 18th before a steady rise back towards perhaps 4 C if it stayed milder (and the guidance proves correct). It would take some record mild days like we saw at end of last December to reach 5 C. Also it could stay quite dry and as our six sunshine locations are not overly prone to ice fog in most cases, it could be quite sunny.

DOCARCH · 09-12-2022 12:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119973839#Comment_119973839

Met E saying this morning it was -6.9c.

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2022 1:05am

Not in the IMT but Gurteen was BRR-teen and Dunsany (highs t.b.d. but appear to be 0.5 or lower, Gurteen shows as -0.2 on meteociel). Oak Park even colder, max -0.5 ... Athenry -1.3.

DOCARCH · 10-12-2022 9:04am

Low temp for yesterday has been revised to -6.8c according to Met E.

appledrop · 10-12-2022 9:26am

Thanks Docarch and the MAX for Atherny yesterday was -1.3, good job we didn't do the low Max this month I would never have guessed that!

DOCARCH · 11-12-2022 8:57am

-7.8c recorded at Athenry overnight (according to Met E on the radio).

sryanbruen · 11-12-2022 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119982611#Comment_119982611

-8.1C the final figure according to their Twitter. Lowest Dec temp in the country since 2010.

Danno · 13-12-2022 1:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119983015#Comment_119983015

-9.7C in Durrow, March 1st 2018?

sryanbruen · 13-12-2022 1:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119989758#Comment_119989758

I said December specifically Danno. Plus lower was observed in January 2021 too.

Danno · 13-12-2022 1:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119989764#Comment_119989764

Apologies, read it over too quickly.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2022 1:22am

So the second week summary will be along in a couple of days but the IMT after 12 days was down to 2.7 C. Each day that it can average around zero will bring it down a further 0.2, so an estimate would be 1.7 after 17 days, after which guidance has been all over the place as to how strong the warming and also how long it lasts before any reload. Just a what if, 18th-31st mild and average near 7 C the IMT would recover to about 4 C, if the warming trend gives way to another cold spell the average could go up to 3 and back down to 2 C. The contest will have a close ending I think, as several forecasts can gain 40-50 points on the leaders, fortunately for appledrop, a higher substitute score is available if this one comes in low, and the closest competition chose similar values so they can't overtake. I am going to score this month without minimum progression first, and make sure that any use of minimum progression does not change the order of finish.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2022 2:07pm

After two weeks and one ice age ...

IMT has sunk to 2.1 C, and the second week average was -0.8 C which was 6.5 below normal.

MAX 11.9 and MIN -8.1 although could now be lower (15th min)

PRC now just 32% of normal, the second week 29% (Belmullet and Malin Head contributed most of this, other locations close to zero).

SUN renains close to 167 per cent with this past week managing 162% of normal.

Looking at guidance, if you believe it, considerably milder after Sat 17th, IMT low point may be 1.5 or so, then could begin climbing, how far it goes depends on how many warm sectors of lows Ireland manages to attract as several appear ready to bring 10 C temps at times. If the average was a conservative 6 C for last 14 days, the blend would then result in a final IMT of 3.5, likely range seems to be 2.5 to 4.0. That covers quite a few forecasts but leaves some of us adrift. Would imagine the milder spell will bring PRC up closer to normal and SUN down towards a fairly high finish but not this high. These model runs have been quite variable for past few days and there is plenty of uncertainty beyond one apparent warming episode Sunday-Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2022 10:57am

MIN went to -8.2 on 15th and -9 at Mountdillon at 0200h today. Exact value t.b.d.

DOCARCH · 16-12-2022 11:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120002532#Comment_120002532

-8.8c apparently at Mount Dillon (according to Met E).

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2022 9:12am

MAX at least 13.8 from Sunday and possibly into the 14s now. IMT was 1.7 after 17 days, yesterday's average of about 8 C will change that to around 2.1 and today's average of near 10 C will change that to 2.4 C. Could be 3.5 to 4.0 at some point whether it holds on there or slips back slightly depends on any colder overnight lows with the high shown on most guidance for 26th-28th time period. Likely to be another mild spell at end of month. This month is a little like the World Cup final yesterday, just when you think one thing, something different happens.

Jpmarn · 19-12-2022 1:44pm

Dublin Airport had an hourly report of 15°C early this morning

Tae laidir · 20-12-2022 9:05am

Phoenix Park reported 15.0 yesterday.

That's +15.0!

Gonzo · 20-12-2022 12:00pm

The IMT should stage a decent recovery by New Years Eve unless we get a few frosty nights after Christmas. I'm guessing we could end up between 4C or 4.5C which would still be below average for the month.

Jpmarn · 20-12-2022 1:51pm

Just commentating on my entry and the general forecasting for the remainder of the month. It looks like average temperature should be around the mean temperature for December in about 5-6°C. My own guess of the average temperature of 4.2°C should fall within MTs temperature range. I underestimated the MAX and MIN temperatures. It looks like my answer on snow for Christmas Day will be incorrect.

December 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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