Softening house market?

Lads, we should know by now that the game is rigged.

Governments, like ours and others, will not let the free market rip and let house prices correct to their true value. There is simply too much negative political heat to take on if this occurs. Now prices may correct modestly, 5% maybe even 10% over the few years. But forget about houses correcting anything over that. The government can pull a rabbit out of the hat and support the market at a whim.

The taxpayer is just going to continue to subsidise the new build market more and more.

They were warned shared equity will push up the prices of new builds and it has so now they have to raise the ceiling further. Its just a developer led scam this whole thing.

Great to see confidence in our housing minister anyway, sure all must be well

Great we will all just copy and paste. No analysis no taughts of our own just pick an article copy and paste.

Just one striking thing about the article above was the fact that it seems that virtually all Swedish mortgages are variable and this is effecting both buyers and existing mortgage holders.

As well house hold debt is 90% of Swedish gross domestic product. Mortgage costs ( I presume the interest part has tripled)

Obviously the poster thinks this is exactly the same as Ireland

This is a pretty handy site, puts the number of properties dropping prices into perspective.

Taking into account both increases and decreases, there is a net percentage 0.27% downward change in property listings.

How much should repayments be for 3 bed as a matter of interest?

Say for the sake of argument the first payment is 50:50 interest:principle, so they are paying 900 interest but paying 900 off the mortgage itself.

Also it depends on their take home pay. If their take-home pay is 3k per month, that is right, but if its 6k per month, then it's comfortable.

I am not surprised that we see more decreases than increases in the listed price. Why would anyone want to go back to renew a listing and increase the price unless maybe a sale has fallen through and it has to be relisted anyway? I think most people would just deal with the offers coming in and sell it to the highest bidder without going back to the listing, whereas if it turns out the asking price was too high or something comes up during the survey lower relistings are much more likely. Asking prices are not very realiable as a value indicator, and changes in same even less so...

Each house around us that is sold is being sold for higher than the last. I dont know anyone who has moved and is paying less rent apart from one couple who moved into a rent controlled apartment owned by a relative of theirs.

Monthly price movements:

July +1.0

August + 1.1

September + 0.6

October (just released) +0.4

As always discussed these are very lagged but finally the data looks to be cooling off after unexpectedly shooting higher in the summer months.

I take it these are finalised sales figures? So Octobers figures are probably for sales agreed in June/July?

Hope the trend continues!

I think some older houses at the lower end of the market will benefit from the recently expanded vacant property refurbishment grant where an FTB can get €30,000 (plus an additional €20,000 for structural works if required), and that's on top of the available SEAI grants as long as the house has been vacant for 2 years or more and you make it your primary residence afterwards. That is a huge amount of money and I can see how that will make those houses a lot more appealing to some.

I think a 50% drop is probably off the cards too, but a fall in prices in real terms is probably inevitable.

The population cohort that will be entering the market next i.e. current 20-30 year olds is significantly smaller than the current buying cohort of 30-45 year olds. As the absolute stock of houses is growing this can only lead to prices falling. This is unless net migration continues strongly to fill jobs that are mortgageable.

As an aside it's absolutely mad that we carry out a census every five years which predicts supply challenges in many sectors (e.g. the late noughties baby boom resulting in a current stress on secondary school places) but nothing ever seems to be done to prepare for it.

Yep, sounds about right.

Expect it to continue to trend down and should be showing flat/negative by early next year. But I made the same prediction in Spring 2022 when things were trending down and it took off again. So who knows!

Your graph does not indicate if or why a central bank would crash a market, it is just more fluff.