Softening house market?

And what exactly will that do. There is probably 4+ areas that influence house prices.

Site costs yes a market crash could reduce these however that in itself would not significantly reduce house prices

Materials were expensive, however they have slightly dropped, but carbon taxes on building materials ( mainly effects steel and concrete) is going to keep increasing.

Labour costs are high at present but it hard to see them significantly reduce. There is a shortage of construction workers in Ireland and it's hard to see excess workers elsewhere which will significantly reduce prices

Regulations are adding cost all the time whether it's the concrete levy, planning, design, etc, unless we changevthe

If you don't like it don't read it. Plenty of other people appreciated the article being posted. It reflects the facts of what is happening on the ground in Sweden where there was a shortage of property just like there is in Ireland and interest rates are on a similar trajectory just with a time lag in the EU. Not sure why you believe I think Sweden is exactly the same as Ireland but there are similarities. Why would the fact that existing homeowners are on variable rates affect buyers who can avail of fixed rates?

He said "the fact that it seems that virtually all Swedish mortgages are variable and this is effecting...buyers" and I have asked why?

Prospective buyers are not on variable rates as you've stated, they can choose fixed rate products if they want. In any case I fail to see why this differentiates the Swedish market from the Irish market which is what he is implying - this is a feature of every property market - buyers can choose variable or fixed rate products - both are available in the Swedish market.

If both fixed and variable are available why are such a high percentage of Swedish buyers on variable rates?....

If the vast majority of Swedish buyers are on variable rates it very much does differentiate their market from ours...

You don’t see the correlation between such a high percentage of variable rate mortgages and property prices in Sweden at a time when rates are rising, and the benefit of a much higher percentage of fixed mortgages in Ireland? How can that be?

And a second less to find the percentage of variable rate mortgages there, but what are the implications on property prices in a market where a huge percentage of both owners and buyers are exposed to rising rates? Then consider why a market with a much higher rate of fixed mortgages may not be affected in the same way.

At this stage in the cycle fixed rates are running 1.5-2% below variable rates. In Ireland it's actually higher than that. I have not even checked other factors in Sweden.

Its comparing apples and oranges. There is even people comparing what is happening in the commercial sectors with residential sector.

At present in Ireland demand exceeds supply by a factor of 2 or 3 to one. Ya of 100k houses appeared out of somewhere it would cool the market there is nothing to indicate that such supply will happen.

Actually I not sure why I am bothering either.

You have done all you can to be fair.

lol. It's buyers and sellers that make a market. Those holding onto their homes are not participating in the market. Seems obvious but clearly not to some.

🤣Profound. When you can't play the ball, play the man!

I don't like the fecker Murphy but he was trying to say that if the government had its own workers building houses that the profit element could be cut out of the expense. The other lad who was from the construction side kept saying that model that Murphy was on about would increase costs without actually stating how and when pressed how it would he got annoyed.

Do you seriously think any gobvernment workers or government firm could turn out houses cheaper than even the dearest building firm you are on cloud cuckoo land to begin with.Just look at the attempt by the office of public works to supply modular houses for the refugees,They Government made noises about supplying these modular homes last March and the o.p.w. have nor even got a site yet to put them on ,god help if they actually have to build any !!

Data from last year suggest that over 40% of renters rely on HAP or other government subsidies. All great as long as MNC dollar roles in, what will happen when it slows down ? Exchequer is spending everything as they come in, nothing put a side.

HAP was a temporary measure when it was introduced years ago, as a stop gap till more social houses were built. This never happened, and the state just kept expanding the scope of HAP and here we are, where it costs the state over €1 Billion just in rent subsidies to private and commercial landlords.

Any temporary measures our government has come out with, inevitably just becomes the norm. As with HAP, something tells me the we will see eviction ban just become a thing, with more or less lifetime tenancy guarantee. The government has no other option, as they have backed themselves into a corner!

You need to remember that Sweden was up there with NZ, Canada and Australia for price rises and have been warned by the ESRB about vulnerabilities in its housing market for 5+ years and had estimated that Swedish housing was 45+% overvalued at the same time they we’re saying the Irish housing market was 20% undervalued. That was in the feb 2022 report.

source: https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/esrb.report220211_vulnerabilities_eea_countries~27e571112b.en.pdf