Sinead Diver Runs 2:21:34 In Valencia At 45 Years Old!! Becomes The Fastest Irish Woman In History

Great to see a woman performing like that at her age. Gives me sone home . I would love to know is she taking any hrt and does it need to be declared .

Sinead Diver's 2:21:34 is unique outlier

It would take a nuclear bomb to dissolve the cloud of suspicion enshrouding this performance

KEVIN BECK

DEC 9

According to World Masters Athletics, Bernard Lagat holds the world record for the marathon in the male age 45-to-49 age bracket, having run 2:14:23 at the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials. Lagat—who started his career as a Kenyan, ended it as an American, and for a spell dubiously straddled the line between them—was a brilliant performer on the track for an impossibly long time. He’s still the second-fastest man ever over 1,500 meters (3:26.34), recording that performance in a 2001 race he lost to Hicham El Guerrouj.

Lagat, reportedly a dedicated father, tested positive for EPO in 2003, but in a statistical miracle was cleared of all harmdoing when his “B” sample (or “‘B’ sample”) came back negative or thereabouts. Lagat had signed a shoe contract with Nike the year before, and he represented that distinguished company for his entire career.

This tells us* three things: one, Bernard Lagat, a delightful family man, was one of the very best runners in the world in both his mid-twenties and his mid-forties; two, Bernard Lagat—adorably nicknamed “Kip”—was almost certainly a beneficiary of banned substances the entire time; and three, even given these two attributes, the always-genial Bernard Lagat’s age-45 marathon time was more than 10 percent slower than the world record.

The difference between Lagat’s 2:14:23 and Eliud Kipchoge’s 2:01:09 world record is 10.92 percent. But the rolling course used in Atlanta for the 2020 Trials was dank mud compared to the layouts used for record attempts, so if his time were adjusted to 2:13:16—and he’d likely have been faster on a runway-style course, but this is close enough for Substack work—he’d be exactly 10 percent off.

Is this a typical drop-off? After all, someone being mega-talented and juiced doesn’t mean he’ll age more slowly than most.

In fact, looking at other road events, we* would actually expect a larger difference. Kevin Castille, now serving a doping suspension, holds the 5K world record for 45- to 49-year-old males with a 14:29 from 2017. That’s 13.0 percent slower than Berihu Aregawi’s world record of 12:49 from last December. Even assuming Aregawi had access to superior shoes, that wouldn’t explain the entire difference; a 10-percent gap would require a 14:06 in the older division. And the world record for the half-marathon in the proto-geezer division (1:05:01) is 13.1 percent slower than the open world record of 57:31.

Ejgayehu Taye has the open world record in the road 5K, running 14:19 in the same race Aregawi ran 14:49. The world record in the women’s 45-to-49 category is 16:13.7 by Linda Somers-Smith. That’s a difference of 13.4 percent. In the 10K, the difference is 14.5 percent (29:14 vs. 33:28), though the proto-geezer time—set by a Ukrainian clearly using all the drugs she could get her hands on—is over twenty years old.

If you feel like comparing times in other road events, some of the open world records are listed here, while Wikipedia maintains this page for masters records. But granting that I’ve collected a reasonably useful mini-sample, it appears that the best runners in the world are about 13 percent faster than the best 45-year-old runners in the world. It might be accurate to observe that if a world-class runner continues racing seriously into his or her mid-forties—and few do—that this might be closer to 10 percent.

Enter Sinead Diver.

The 2:21:34 Diver ran in Valencia on Sunday at the age of 45 years, nine and a half months is a mere 5.6 percent slower than the world record of 2:14:04.

For Diver to be 10 percent inferior to the world record would require a woman running 2:08:41. Being 13 percent slower would mean a women’s world record of 2:05:16.

When Diver ran a half-marathon in 1:09:00 in February to set a proto-geezer world record for that distance, this was within 9.8 percent of Letesenbet Gidey’s 1:02:52 from months earlier—a time that happens to be the most stupefying mark among current world road records. Only a dozen American women of any age have run faster, and only four of them lacked access to modern road flats in their primes (Joan Benoit Samuelson, Deena Kastor, Kara Goucher, and Shalane Flanagan).

Imagine a 45-year-old man capable of any of these times, especially one with pasty-white parents:

• Mile - 3:55.6
• 5,000m - 13:17
• 10,000m - 27:39
• Half-marathon - 1:00:44
• Marathon - 2:07:56

Also note that Diver is not just absurdly fast, but has been improving for years, although it seems unlikely that she will ever improve on 1:09:00 and 2:21:34. She never broke 2:30:00 until turning forty, by which time she was no beginner.

How have the media responded to the 2:21:34? Predictably. This Runner’s World story is representative of the dunce-yawping, incurious mix, and it’s genuinely cute—I think the author believes every last word she wrote. Here are a few of those words:

She only took up running at the age of 33, works full time as an IT consultant, and has a busy family life with two young kids.

And if her back story and achievements don't make her inspirational enough, Diver is also responsible for one of the funniest instagram [sic] running accounts.

Another inspirational athlete who scoffs in the face of the concept of ageing [sic] is Catherine Bertone of Italy…

Oh, and did we mention? She's 50 years old. Age really is just a number, and that number is 'one ridiculously fast marathon time!'.

Setting records and epic multitasking – these super fast women can do it all.

I can’t be the only one who laughed aloud when I saw that an Italian medical doctor was also running unlikely times as an inexorably calcifying fossil. She must have at least forty-seven kids she’s never discussed in order to have gained the she-power to develop and maintain that kind of strength. That, or she’s familiar with any number of clones of these people.

It doesn’t matter how talented or hardworking Sinead Diver is, or how slowly she may be aging, or how fast she might have run as a younger woman had she started before turning 33. Everything about her performance profile is too suspect to even denigrate using standard dismissive-sarcastic terminology; her 2:21:34 and untrammeled improvement strain credulity too much.

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© 2022 Kevin Beck

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I am a menopausal women of similar age profile to Sinead and the majority of my peers are struggling with sleep deprivation , weight gain , muscle pain and all sorts of other crap - so beating all the odds whilst dealing with diminishing hormones is definitely odd . HRT would help - and woman can get testosterone with HRT . It replacing though what you are losing as you age .

Author has omitted Diver's Toyko marathon where she was within 3% of the winning time.

I may have the green blinkers on but I am not convinced by his insinuations.

Comparing Lagat to Kipchoge can't be mapped onto a Diver/female record comparison. Diver is clearly a marathon specialist. Lagat is not. He is a middle distance specialist. Kipchoge ain't no spring chicken either. Why not say a man in his 40s (Kipchoge) is relatively waaaay faster than Diver?

Looking at results in Valencia last year and this, there is an argument that this is one of the fastest marathon courses in the world. It looks lightening fast with good ambient conditions for performing well.

Shoes and Maurten are worth minutes.

The athletic maturity argument has some merit. She has a certain amount of potential capacity which needs to be utilized and leveraged to increase power/pace etc. That takes time.

Her progression looks like a case of her running in mid-ish 2:30s for a while before really taking it seriously and breaking through into the 2:20s.

In the age of super shoes and faster recovery from marathon fitness from marathon races can be retained and contribute to the next marathon block.

The Olympic marathon was obviously another breakthrough psychologically allowing her to push on and improve on her 2:24 from London while stronger, fitter and on a faster course in Valencia.

Maybe there is more, but his arguments seem a little lazy unbalanced not least by choosing Lagat to 'prove' his points.

He actually has no useful data in his mini-sample. Masters records are generally soft (he fails to acknowledge this) and his chosen examples are extremely soft both on the lesser known runner (13% slower than WR) and 'former world class athlete' (10% slower than WR) examples.

Castille's 5000 M45 record is a full minute slower than the M40 record. It is soft as milk. He uses Lagat to "show" what a world class athletes of 45 can do which is where he gets his 10% of WR pace as the lowest mark. But Lagat's Marathon PB is only 2h12m, he is NOT a marathon specialist, his masters time is only slightly relatively better than Castille's tortoise job.

But who is a specialist? Bekele is 42 now. If he keeps training without injury for 3 years will he break 2:09? (roughly 6% slower than WR)? I'd guess very easily. How would Kipchoge do at 45? (assuming he is not already 45 ). Would he beat 2:14? 2:09? 2:05? So if Bekele or Kipchoge keep running they might produce meaningful records for the purposes of valid comparisons.

Do your research sure, but have another look again at your bottom line. (You admitted you haven't validated his position nor researched yours therefore no basis for it.)

"Bottom line: Sinead's 2:21 at 45 is either the greatest marathon of all time, by any athlete of any gender or any age, or it's something else. I hope it's the former."

Note: Point about Shoes/Maurten for Diver is to explain some of her relative improvement from 2:31-2:25.

Note2: Men's winner and women's winner Valencia both within a minute of respective WRs. That course is worth minutes.

There are a few things to consider.

1. Advancements in technology and nutrition.

2. Course profile and weather conditions.

3. Motivation differences.

The first 2 are fairly obvious. The conditions on the day did read to be almost perfect and the course itself is very fast. I watched a video from Ben Parkes which showed that 18% of the field ran sub 3 hours, which is a lot more than Berlin (7% I believe). The only one close to it is Boston, at 14%.

Bearing in mind Boston and other majors have a high percentage of spots given to those with a qualifying time of around that time it's notable that an event which has no requirement of a qualifying time (open to correction on that) is generally more conducive to fast times than these races.

When you factor in the fact that the race this year saw the 3rd fastest marathon time ever and it wasn't recorded by Kipchoge it only backs this up further.

In terms of motivation it stands to reason that an athlete that peaked and competed among the best in their 30s would struggle for motivation to keep going in their mid 40s. They might still have the profile and the ability to enter big events and record good times, I suspect the drive to perform might wane as powers diminish. This is entirely different to somebody who is still improving in their early 40s. I highly doubt a competitor used to competing for world medals would really view a Masters record as something to strive for.

I've no real knowledge nor opinion of Diver bar the basics of her background and when she started running. There may be some interesting flags about her progress but there are also some factors which make her time more explainable than assuming the default Paul Kimmage (no offence Paul) position.

Watching Irish defending Irish 🤣 Will somebody please at least state that despite 'marginal gains' this is an outlier performance. Just once... Please

I think this thread probably shows very clearly the two polar opposite views on doping in sport.

One side believes that there should always be a presumption of innocence in the absence of a failed test.

The other side believes that doping is very prevalent in professional sport. Some of it is totally hidden, lots of it is in plain view and exploits TUE rules. This side also believes the many anonymous surveys which professional sports people completed which suggest that approx 40% of professional athletes dope. With anti doping failing to catch the cheats and an omerta within sport, this side believes in using other means (like rate of improvement and the age it happens at) to question the likes of Froome, Wiggins, Radcliffe, Farah etc.

These two sides will never see eye to eye 🤣

If you reckon Valencia is accurate fair enough. But the 'British inspired stereotype' comment is nonsense. If the poster you are replying to is British then your comment is well beyond the pale. No need for it.

What’s wrong with Manchester? Only asking as I’m running it next April

As demonstrated in an earlier post both the Masters records used to get the 10%-13% are extremely soft. (Generally masters records are for obvious reasons, these particularly so). Beck has successfully copied these times from the source website to his own. That's all you have validated. Obviously, that does not make any of his extrapolations or claims about Sinead Diver valid.

If you have a quick re-read of my post you quoted, you'll note I didn't claim that Valencia was "significantly flatter than say Chicago or Berlin": rather I listed it's flatness as one of a number of characteristics that combined seemed to lead to fast times in absolute and proportional terms on that course compared to others.

Interestingly enough, a WR at Valencia would have pocketed the winner 325,000 euro.

From what I read, so I could be wrong, Kipchgoge pocketed around 130,000 dollars for the win and WR in Berlin.

I don't doubt that at all. Im sure the main man has very generous contracts with his sponsors and the world marathon people.

However, the prize purse is very attractive, especially given the arguments in this thread of perfect weather and lightning fast tarmac :D