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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


     And besides having gas running at full power for a few weeks a year is well within our emissions targets.

    But it's not just "for a few weeks a year" - it's alot of the year. Owing to the variation in wind we were only able to cover ~34% of all electricity demand in 2022. That means we've being relying on imported power and fossil fuels for the remaining ~66%.

    Wind is unreliable. We typically see greatest demand for power during anti-cyclonic weather conditions just like we did earlier this week when we set a national record for electricity demand - wind wasn't worth a fook.

    You can set up all the turbines you want, no wind to blow ten turbines = no power. No wind to blow ten thousand turbines = no power.

    It's high time to look at better energy solutions. The green kids have done enough already to show their incompetency.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,743 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    @Capt'n Midnight

    Nuclear power plants getting to that age are rare and likely to be shut down for extended times or forever. France proved that. The UK's AGR while a different technology are another example of life extensions that didn't work. I CBA looking up the US's history there, but cheap gas killed off plants with high refurb and maintenance costs.

    The UK's AGR program was basically a complete botch-up, especially with each plant being built by a different consortium who did not really know what they were doing. From memory some of the AGRs were shut down early because the engineering skillsets had not been maintained. In comparison Sizewell B has fared well.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    One of the new leaders top priorities were laid out in his first speech. 5 "ambitions" #4 will be of interest


    Our fourth ambition is to become energy independent by harnessing our untapped renewable energy resources. This will be our moonshot for the 21st century, something to strive for, not because it is easy, but because it is hard. Recalling Ardnacrusha and the spirit of the Free State. Our Shannon Scheme 2.0.

    I will work closely with Minister Eamon Ryan to do what needs to be done, the timeframe, and the resources needed to make it happen, including developing the capacity of the Department of the Taoiseach on climate action. It is a project that will go beyond the lifespan of this government into the next and the one after. But it will be worth doing and it will bring enormous benefits to our economy and our environment




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    I really wish the conversation moved past emissions and actually looked at what's best for the country and it's citizen's.

    If it's more economically viable to build 4x, 6x, 10x our current installed capacity them let's see it mapped out, costed, and compared to alternatives. They could be nuclear, CCGT with H2 retrofit possibilities, wave or tidal power.

    Wind isn't the panacea many think it is, neither is nuclear. By 2050 we may be looking at a completely different technogical environment and front loading 10's to 100's of billions now seems a tad foolish.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I really wish the conversation moved past emissions

    Ignoring emissions is what landed us in this mess in the first place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    No, not ignore, move past them. They can't be the only consideration yet here we are fixated on a goal that can't be achieved or make an iota of difference even if it is.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,202 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    I'd think that wise advice, particularly for older buildings - heating oil will likely have more carbon tax heaped on it, but there will be limits as there are just too many dwellings & buildings using oil for it be priced out of the market. The air to water system does seem to work for new modestly sized well built townhouses now with no chimneys etc., though cost of running will surely rise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 125 ✭✭Kincora2017


    I hope that if you took their advice, it was only after ensuring that even with a change to a more intensive CO2 emitter, you’ll still be meeting your obligations under the new Part L of the Building Regs



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Based on 5 year data from UK offshore windfarms 30GW of wind would produce over 6GW 2/3rd of the time. All of our power is not nothing. And it would average 50% of our power the other 1/3 of the time. All without any storage.

    So no, we would never need hydrogen to provide power 2/3rd of the time. We might need hydrogen some of the time, but probably not much during summer because of solar + interconnectors and biomass and other renewables.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Northern Ireland gets 49% of it's electricity from renewables without offshore wind or much in the way of solar or tidal. So we know it could be more.

    What is your solution deliverable by 2030 that meets daily and annual demand variations ?

    Wind is reliable in the sense that you can be reasonably sure how much dispatchable plant you'd need in a few days time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,120 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You have posted this a number of times and engineering design hasn`t changed from the last time you posted it.


    You design for the worst case scenario. Would you design a bridge based on the assumption that all it will need to bear is a 5 ton truck as a 10 ton truck would only use it the odd time and it will be grand.


    The ESB plan is about constructing turbines with a nameplate capacity of 30GW, which based on U.K average offshore rolling capacity, would generate 12.6GW. 6.3GW for domestic consumption and 6.3GW for hydrogen production.


    Rolling capacity is the percentage of nameplate capacity a wind turbine generates in a year. When wind drops to little or nothing as it has a number of times for extended periods over the last two years when demand was high, then rolling capacity means sfa. Out of the installed wind capacity we presently have, even, in the last 10 days it has been as low, and lower, than 10% of nameplate capacity.


    With the ESB plan, that 30GW would drop to just 3GW generated with 50% of that for consumer use..



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,120 ✭✭✭✭charlie14




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,481 ✭✭✭KildareP


    Again, storing vast quantities of hydrogen in disused gas fields is only theoretical. No one has done it at scale. When it has been done and proven then by all means rule all other options out.

    Again, as you state, retro kits should be on stream by 2030 just like hydrogen should be able to be produced at scale. You're pinning all our future energy needs on something you hope will be ready when we need it. Fusion should be ready by 2050...

    On infrastructure, you don't know that. It's pure theory. Leakage and embrittlement appears to be one of the biggest issues to transporting hydrogen within existing gas infrastructure. To essentially dismiss it as "it'll be grand" on a 6GW+ scale is mind boggling.

    Hydrogen isn't the only option - you are correct there, it is one of many various options, none of which ultimately have been shown as being doable on the scale needed to supply a grid with stable, reliable power. We're turning our grid into one big scientific experiment in a few short years if we are going to be the pioneers on this!

    And finally, talk about lies, damn lies and statistics! Like we see puff pieces about how wind powered Ireland on a given day by some percentage figure greater than 70%, despite 70% being the upper SNSP limit.

    Wind has directly generated <40% of overall demand for the last number of years. Are you sure you're not mixing it with wind's figures?

    When the wind stops, like it did for much of this week, then wind's contribution becomes totally meaningless altogether. Without traditional plant we'd have been all very cold and very dark this week. No way to run a grid.

    And the real kicker, regardless what wind is producing, the traditional large baseload plants are still firing, still burning a significant proportion of the fuel they otherwise would have done at load (which is why our grid CO2 intensity doesn't dip by anything close to 70% when wind is at full pelt hitting SNSP).

    Which means your 2.5x more expensive with nuclear argument is meaningless - we're already paying for whatever the actual overhead involved in wind failing to produce 60%+ of the time is already! Because the gas generators still have to cover their costs at the end of the day for being there, and for burning fuel even when not generating anything because wind got there first.

    So tell me, in the same vein, how much is 30GW of wind going to cost the consumer to produce net 6GW, AND still have to retain al of your existing generation plant as backup for weeks like the one gone, plus build all this new ancillary hydrogen systems alongside? I suppose you'll fudge some other numbers to say it'll still be cheaper than near directly swapping some existing fossil plant for a nuclear equivalent...



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Wind didn't stop this week. Offshore there was always plenty of wind



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    complete replacement? Most of the most expensive infrastructure is rated well beyond that 20-30 year lifespan

    Nuclear plant has a theoretical lifespan of 50 years but not only can the plant not be upgraded, it costs billions to decommission afterwards and takes decades.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS178883596820110613

    Nuclear is a tax on future generations



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    The past 2 weeks have convinced me that the only sustainable way to heat peoples homes during winter in this country is to do what our predecessors did for thousands of years

    light the fire & burn wood.

    Everything else is an absolute waste of time & costs a bloody fortune



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    https://www.facebook.com/100000227328255/posts/pfbid02E47SS21CgkFkPeLMW4GRg64QmmhzAtQKL3W7dFrBwh3wG1y3GE3xaTc4Xbt8BxFHl/ a public video showing the farce Heat Pumps are. €100 down the swanny and not even a week in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    I no somebody that has one and using almost €20 per day, after costing over €15000 to put in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,481 ✭✭✭KildareP




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nuclear last year had a capacity factor of 77.6% , so not double that of wind. And not near the 90%+ often claimed. Newer windfarms further offshore will have capacity factors exceeding 50% (nuclear will never be twice that) but more importantly offshore windfarms being geographically separate and the use of interconnectors mean fewer times without wind somewhere.

    This is the graph that tells you much of the time 30GW of wind would power our country on it's own. But we will also have biomass, solar, interconnectors, demand shedding, and storage and natural gas up to 20% of current emissions and hydrogen storage , which may be as hydrogen or other hydrogen carriers like ammonia or other forms of energy to fuel.


    The whole windfarm infrastructure doesn't need replacing mid life, just the parts that wear out like blades and turbines. You don't have to replace th cables, or foundations, you don't need to do the surveys again, you don't need to go through the planning permission again, you don't need to build the towers again or place rock armour on the seabed, or 101 other costs. However, replacing other components too means you can also bring old turbines up to modern standards with greater uptimes and efficiencies. And you can get 40 year turbines now.

    France had to take half of it's nuclear plant offline this year to replace components known to fail and that should have been replaced during normal maintenance but weren't. Similar cases of corrosion in the US. And so far the oldest grid connected MW sized wind turbine has outlasted ALL of the French nuclear power plants.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,387 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    totally disagree, if research stating that there simply isnt enough mineral resources to build 100% renewable systems turns out to be true, they ll be begging for that nuclear technology, as attempting to do so alone without nuclear, would more than likely lead to serious conflicts and wars!



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "You design for the worst case scenario"

    So far we've had loosing 54 reactors in one predictable (except for the date) and preventable incident (don't build where's there's been floods) And then having 40 of them stay off line for 11 years, and causing two other countries including the one holding most of the top ten records for lifetime output from a reactor abandoning nuclear power. That's not the worst case. It's just what has happened so far. Nuclear plants in the UK weren't designed to handle the 1607 flood. And gave up using the other reactor on a site as the only backup power, after PR over Fukushima but not after several near misses with previous floods. The more you look the risks taken in the name of cost cutting in nuclear the worse it gets.


    "You design for the worst case scenario"

    On top of everything else France had to shut down nuclear power plants this year because of rivers overheating. If a nuclear plant has a 60 year lifetime (hint: 100% failure so far) then it's reasonable to expect them to be designed to meet the environmental standards in average project duration + 60 years time rather than today's standards, otherwise you are kicking the can. See also low river levels, icing and floods taking nuclear power plants offline. And cold. Don't get me started on building reactors in seismic zones with historical earthquakes.


    "You design for the worst case scenario"

    How about something that been causing outages worldwide since at least 1984 in Israel, Japan, the United States (California, Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida), South Korea, and Sweden, Scotland and France. Oh look the UK is finally doing something about it as Even minor disruptions to water flow can cut electrical output. Not solving the problem just mitigation that will probably involve reducing power output to reduce cooling water input.


    "You design for the worst case scenario"

    As far as I can see the nuclear industry doesn't even plan for events that have already happened and have a high probability of happening again during the lifetime of a plant. These aren't black swan events. A 100 year event has a 50:50 probability of happening in plant with a 50 year life. (not counting construction and decommissioning which could total a 100 years) Also some 100 year events are becoming 10 year events with climate change.



    In contrast

    When has anyone ever lost most of interconnected wind or solar without having several days notice ?


    Yes we might only get 10% output from 30 GW of wind some of the time but the measured statistic across offshore farms was 10.2% or higher 84% of the time (and the rest of the time the average was close to half that ). Covering 16% of the time using 20% of today's emissions should be a doddle especially when you also have the other renewables and interconnectors and storage. Also most of the low wind output is in summer and we will have 5GW of solar to cover daily peaks then.

    If all else fails there'd be oodles of hydrogen wouldn't there ??? Because you keep claiming that the ESB will double charge for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I am not opposed to Nuclear. We probably need nuclear as part of the mix. (Not necessarily in Ireland, but as part of an interconnected grid)

    It is expensive though and future generations are left to pay the costs of dealing with the waste and decommissioning old plant. If we're honest with ourselves about this then we can make an informed decision



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Our main source of Helium is from gas reservoirs that are hundreds of millions of years old. Maybe even billions of years

    Hydrogen isn't as leaky as helium so can be stored longer than it.



    Most hydrogen today is made from natural gas so there was no incentive to use it instead.

    We've been here before with fuel changes. Coal/Oil vs Natural Gas/Hydrogen. Powering warships with oil was technically possible since the first steamship but limited by price and availability. As a reliable affordable supply of oil became available to each navy they rapidly shifted away from coal lead by Russia and the USA who had oil, the UK followed later when they'd secured oil abroad, Germany waited till after WWI.



    Again the stats from Northern Ireland are 49% from local renewables. Using more onshore wind, biomass and solar , adding offshore wind and,tidal would increase that.


    30GW wind will produce 12-15GW of electricity.


    Lookup the grid constraints on sem-o to see why we have high inertia units on load at all times near the large cities that nuclear won't ever be allowed near. In future some of this inertia should be moved over to the synchronous converters and fast frequency response batteries. Like I keep saying our baseload will fall to 5% of demand. The rest will be from renewables / dispatchable plant / interconnectors / storage / demand shedding etc. with the ratios predictable days ahead. The intraday auctions on our grid are the complete opposite of guaranteeing a 35 year contract to a power source that would take 15 years to be deliver under ideal circumstances.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We use 1GW more electricity in winter than summer.

    Work out the cost of providing 1GW for 30 years and you have part of a budget for insulation. You can do the same for seasonal demand for gas, home heating oil and coal.

    Might be worth doing from a balance of payments view to reduce imports.


    I'm assuming you weren't in Dublin during the smoggy days we used to get.



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