Russia - threadbanned users in OP

My take on the whole issue of Belarus would be a tad different from most.

I have my suspicion, that the Russian army station there is more likely part of a bolt-hole safe haven for Putin and his family, rather than an invasion of Ukraine.

Any serious involvement from Belarus in a Russian invasion would be an end to Lukashenko. That would pave the way for an Anti-Russian government to take his place. Putin has no benefit there. While some of those Russian troops might be sent to have a last go at Kyiv they would certainly fail. So why send them? Instead, if those Russian soldiers and their superior officers are 100% loyal to Putin [plenty of money to keep those guys happy, helps] then he would be safe there in the event of being toppled back in Moscow. Putin is certain to have a plan in place for that situation.

As long as Lucky Lukashenko stays where he is, he can continue to serve what would be in effect a Russian mini-state within a Belarus state. The Russian guys, as I am led to believe with some WMDs, would be hard to deal with even if Lucasheko was to be removed. Even NATO or the US would probably not get involved in such a situation. So Putin is safe or so on paper he would be.

I saw reports Ukraine may have advanced 5 km in the North just yesterday (as they were assaulting Soflivka) but absolutely the ground conditions have slowed movements for both sides.

I wouldn't know, but since that's from the Ukraine Foreign Ministry, I'm happy to believe them.

I think you are misunderstanding - sure the US are giving stuff as 'aid', but they are also disallowing the Ukrinians from choosing to pay for things the US won't give them but that they might prioritise for their survival or for saving Ukrainian lives.

In other words, the US are indian givers - promising Lend Lease then yanking it.

(Actually I disapprove of the term Indian giver, as it's really the Americans who were 'Indian givers' breaking, annullling or altering every single one of the more than 500 treaties they ever signed with the indigenous people.)

At least they are being consistent with past practices.

Where does the Ukranian Foreign Ministry say any of that?

This is what they said:

I'm not misunderstanding. You are not explaining. Your post content does not correlate with what was quoted, and you throw in added historical nonsense.

This man is on another level when it comes leadership.

Zelensky in bakhmut

Balls of pure brass

Are you under the impression that what the US is giving them for free is the same as what would be available under lend lease, because it's not. The US is not giving them the lend lease stuff for free, they are only giving them a very restricted subset they have more control over in terms of capabilities.

Not a chance.

It will be over soon enough

What is that, saving Europe when they are unable or unwilling to save themselves from tyranny?

Is the US currently giving Ukraine M1A2 tanks, Patriot missile batteries or F-16s?

https://en.thepage.ua/politics/usa-passes-lend-lease-for-ukraine-2022-what-is-it-and-how-will-it-help-ukraine

What has that got to do with Lend Lease and your original point? They could be given under either scheme.

Why do you think they haven't seen their most sophisticated systems \ systems requiring extensive training and logistics support?

The timelines for putting F16 pilots and logistics in place are considerable.

They have sent HIMARS which have had significant impact on the battlefield.

I dont know, look at the map. How TF will he get there? Hidden in a suitcase? To get to Switzerland you have to pass an EU country and i might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure all EU borders are closed for russians. Unless of course he has a swiss passport himself, which was rumoured earlier.

Zelensky asked for all this back in May, so having seen 9 months as a minimum mentioned, they would have been good to go come February had they started then.

But all of this is following the peacetime rule book. It probably would surprise a few people to learn that Ukrainian pilots have been training with the US National Guard since 1993: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-air-force-pilots-fight-russia/

Given all that, the time for such experinced pilots to convert might be less than the official ideal. When the UK's very existence was at stake in WW2, the pilot training time was shortened to a lot less than the ideal. Towards the end of that war, my father was made an acting squadron leader and tasked with training Dutch pilots to fly fighters. I gather it didn't go too well and he wasn't terribly complimentary about them.

Supposedly there are Ukrainian pilots in the US who have been training to fly the A-10 for quite while now.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44965/u-s-f-15-pilot-on-what-it-is-like-fighting-against-ukraines-fighter-pilots

Well yes, I do doubt he's going to Steve McQueen it on a Triumph TR6 and jump the border, as in The Great Escape, but it's barely possible he might have access to several hundred jet aircraft he could fly there in. I'm pretty sure there is no European ban on Russian flights carrying embassy diplomats and employees. I'll bet he's got some deal done with the Swiss, if not a passport. He has many billions stashed there.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-aircraft-adds-6-hours-flight-time-avoid-eu-airspace-2022-7?op=1&r=US&IR=T

They aren't even in real simulators, just flying games with VR headsets on off the shelf gaming PCs

Pretty much obvious this isn't the work of the Pentagon or US government....