Softening house market?

fliball123 · 20-12-2022 11:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017050#Comment_120017050

Only in the protected sectors like the public sector and banks. How anyone thinks the vast majority of the private sector can afford pay rises on top of other expenses is a nonsense. Your looking at a decade before the majority of workers have caught up.

IWW2900 · 20-12-2022 11:18am

And......now Japan is raising rates. Unprecedented.

Anyone who doesnt know the knock on effects this is going to have, educate yourself. Wild times ahead.

Property going to plummet.

Padre_Pio · 20-12-2022 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017208#Comment_120017208

Some sectors, like tech, pharma, engineering have had pay increases over COVID.

High demand in these industries.

Wanderer78 · 20-12-2022 11:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017262#Comment_120017262

yea this is gonna get very hairy, 23 looking well dodgy.....

Jonnyc135 · 20-12-2022 11:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017314#Comment_120017314

Some change in strategy by Japan, crazy stuff really. There is just way too many known and unknown scenarios that a on a knife edge that could cause a black swan event that may trigger another GFC and Liquidity crisis. Credit Suisse, the energy derivative markets, war in Ukraine, prolonged inflation above CBs target and a stock market crash among a few. Way to much uncertainty, the global stock markets haven't even priced in for a recession yet, they are banking a black swan event that would cause a fed pivot, but they are not considering how destructive that event may be.

Timing belt · 20-12-2022 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120016963#Comment_120016963

Protected sectors my arse…tech rode a wave and has already had its wages increases. The same as people didn’t feel bad for trades men that were milking it when building slowed down or the financial sector following the ‘08 crash or HR and recruitment that grew exponentially during Covid etc and got pay increases and bonuses when others didn’t and at the first sign of a slowdown there the first cost to cut. IT crying now because they aren’t on the boat is a joke and maybe they have a bit of a feeling what non IT staff felt while supposedly masters of the universe got paid stupid money and outbid everyone else.

fliball123 · 20-12-2022 11:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017379#Comment_120017379

Public sector in this country has always been cushioned. You only have to look at the last recession 400k jobs lost in the private sector and in the public sector people where asked to volunteer to go and got a nice golden handshake to see them out the door. If that aint protected I dont know what is.

Wanderer78 · 20-12-2022 12:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017367#Comment_120017367

yea its very worrying stuff, theres a strong potential for all of this to simply flop over, and abruptly to.... you can see cb's havent a clue whats going on, now thats scary!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017394#Comment_120017394

its clearly obvious, many newer public sector recruits are in a very precarious situation, with far less pay, and poor conditions to many older public sector workers, theres clearly a strong divide happening there to...

kaymin · 20-12-2022 12:04pm

Denmark’s Housing Market in Steepest Decline Since 2011

Buyers are negotiating bigger price reductions than earlier
Nykredit estimates Danish house prices to drop 10% from peak

ByChristian Wienberg+Follow

December 20, 2022 at 10:39 AM GMT

House prices in Denmark are falling at the fastest pace since 2011 as higher borrowing costs push buyers to negotiate increasingly bigger discounts to asking prices.

Denmark’s challenges echo those of neighboring Sweden, where the market is slumping at the fastest pace since the 1990s. While the Danish housing market so far has fared better, rapidly rising interest rates are putting pressure on prices after a long period of sub-zero rates.

Danish House Prices Fall Most in 11 Years

Sources: Finans Danmark, Bloomberg

Note: price data for detached and terraced houses

According to latest data, house prices dropped 2.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months, Finans Danmark said on Tuesday. That’s the biggest drop in 11 years.

Last quarter, houses sold on average at prices 7.3% lower than they had been listed at, according to the country’s biggest industry group for banks and mortgage lenders. That compares with a price reduction of 3.6% a year earlier.

“The market is characterized by significantly fewer trades and rising price reductions,” Mira Lie Nielsen, a chief analyst at Nykredit Realkredit, Denmark’s biggest mortgage bank, said in a note. “We expect that both house and apartment prices will drop by about 10% from a peak this summer to a trough in the autumn of next year.”

Danes may also encounter rising rates after a sudden policy change in Japan may make it less attractive for Japanese investors to buy Danish mortgage bonds, according to Mathias Dollerup Sproegel, a senior economist at Sydbank. The investors have traditionally been among the largest buyers of the Danish assets.

Bass Reeves · 20-12-2022 12:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017394#Comment_120017394

Incorrect again. The government allowed an early retirement scheme. I do not remember any top up maybe I am wrong.

The dishonesty was the way younger PS were treated in that there wages were bought substantially lower. Not that I disagreed totally with that. The pension levy leaves many of them.in a situation where it's impossible to top up the new scheme.

Timing belt · 20-12-2022 12:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017394#Comment_120017394

It’s not just the public sector getting increases…inflation drives up wages simple…. People will still have a lower disposable income because it won’t match inflation and will face a squeeze… some sectors will do better than others. Government tax take increases in nominal terms as they collect a more vat etc.

LJ12345 · 20-12-2022 12:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017456#Comment_120017456

If stock markets take a nosedive corporations will reign in spending, it’s all about profits.

Cyrus · 20-12-2022 12:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017262#Comment_120017262

no need for anyone to educate themselves with the standard of posting here, its all laid out in detail.

Its like reading a tabloid headline over and over reading your posts, is there an app you are using?

Wanderer78 · 20-12-2022 12:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017599#Comment_120017599

...already starting to happen...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017619#Comment_120017619

...yup, lets keep the blindfolds on, lets keep sticking our fingers in our ears.... theres clearly something seriously wrong with our global financial system!

baldbear · 20-12-2022 1:02pm

Treasure Ireland.

"Macquarie, the Australian bank, has established a €100 million fund to buy homes in Ireland, new financial documents have shown. Broadstone Housing Investments Limited, an Irish entity controlled by the bank, has already started to use the funds to acquire second-hand homes in Carlow."

IWW2900 · 20-12-2022 1:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017619#Comment_120017619

Im in the game pal.

IWW2900 · 20-12-2022 1:21pm

Watch the stock market today to get a sense of whats coming.

Timing belt · 20-12-2022 1:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017740#Comment_120017740

So end of year rebalancing of portfolio positions in a period of low volume is the benchmark of what’s coming.

o1s1n · 20-12-2022 1:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017740#Comment_120017740

When is it coming? Give a timeframe. Without a timeframe your statement means nothing.

A catastrophe is always coming. The difference between those in the know versus hacks is actual predictions and not vague statements.

IWW2900 · 20-12-2022 1:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017779#Comment_120017779

Property prices will drop big in 2023. In region of 20 - 30 percent.

Padre_Pio · 20-12-2022 1:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017807#Comment_120017807

Any way to bookmark a comment? I want to come back to this in 12 months.

DirectorKrennic · 20-12-2022 1:45pm

Hi all,

From my own experiences and being out talking to people I'm seeing and hearing very mixed views and experiences on what's happening both in the economy and Irish residential retail prices.

I know some people who work in tech (specifically development and software testing) and pharma and all of them have experienced big pay increases. It goes back to what a previous poster said: it depends on where you are working. Even if there is a recession the pharma industry will probably prove to be quite resilient. Other parts of the economy though I am less sure about. While in January 2022 everyone was talking about 'the roaring 20's (which probably could have happened if it wasn't for the war in Ukraine setting off massive inflationary pressures) but with inflation so high both wealth in terms of savings built up during the pandemic and real wages are falling in real terms. This is leading to a fall in consumer confidence. How this will affect the residential sector I am seeing both a bullish and bearing case. As someone said here, with the new 4x income rules and help to buy, and shared equity, some people (notably those who have not lost jobs) will have more purchasing power. That said, I am seeing job losses among some people I know working in Intel and smaller construction firms. The commencements in construction have started to go backwards.

I was looking at a 2nd hand apartment in a small, relatively rural commuter town and the price dropped from E220k to E199k and they still couldn't sell it. Dropped further to E189k and they still haven't sold it. I was turning up to viewings in Feb/March of 2022 and there would be '19 other interested parties' whereas lately I'm turning up and there are only 2-3 other buyers. I've also noticed the panic to buy among FTB's has switched from 'I need to buy now' to 'OMG there is recession coming, I will wait.' Personally I am going to buy when I am ready because a home is a home but I also saw a 2 bed terraced house in my area rise in price from E165 in 2015/2016 to a peak of E299, but they've dropped back now to E255. I've seen the exact same trajectory of 2 bed apartments in Finglas. Anyway hope my 2 cents on the issue is helpful, basically depends on the sector people work in. Long-term though, supply is so constrained even if there is a recession, prices might be higher in a few years time. I noticed people who bought in 2020 got a much better deal than those who bought in 2021 by an extreme margin. I know a girl who told me she bought a 4 bed in 2020 near Tullamore, and I was shocked to discover it was a new build. 2 bed new build were going for that one year ago and are now going for E295. The data seems mixed basically. I'm attending a viewing tonight so will let people know if many show up or if it will just be me.

Cyrus · 20-12-2022 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017739#Comment_120017739

you are in the game pal, what does that mean?

Tow · 20-12-2022 2:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120015618#Comment_120015618

Don't worry, he was promising lower house prices since he started his morning show show on Newstalk, in 1999.

ballyharpat · 20-12-2022 2:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120016759#Comment_120016759

I went to his show 'Kilkenomics in 2011 or 2012, he was talking down property, as was the done thing by every Joe on the street. He said the Irish needed to find other things to invest in. I had been in the USA and had made a decent amount of money in stocks, but the only way to trade in Ireland at the time was Davys, they were hand in hand with AIB, it was e40 to buy, plus a percentage, and e40 to sell, plus a percentage, so to put in 1k, you had to make 8%+ to break even. I asked him what suggestions he had for a guy in his 30's, or what he'd suggest for my parents , in their 50's. He couldn't give me an answer, he is a one trick pony. Fortunately firstrade became available here, Degiro opened up also, and Davys is as good as gone from the broker side.

I put my money into property all the way up, it's worked out for me, not that I am a genius, or have a crystal ball, but it does show, this guy was, and probably is still clueless. It's practically impossible to call where any market will go, given so many variables, but given his track record, I wouldn't be listening to him too much.

Ozark707 · 20-12-2022 2:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017980#Comment_120017980

Well in fairness we did have an incredible reduction at one stage.

Tonesjones · 20-12-2022 2:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120017050#Comment_120017050

Public sector and the already well paid got the rises.

SME employees most likely got little to nothing

DataDude · 20-12-2022 4:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120016963#Comment_120016963

I work in Financial Services. A known but not exactly glamorous company. Have friends in similar - accountants in Big 4 etc.

All have received bumper pay rises in last 12 months and all seeing 4-7% being budgeted for April 2023 pay increases (vs 2/2.5% over last decade). The official statistics also show extremely strong wage inflation over past 2 years and expect will again next year.

Theres definitely wage inflation out there.